Texas Summer 2017

[Brent]

GFS brings back summer next week(when I get back )... fortunately its the LR GFS...

[Cpv17]

The GFS has so many wild swings. The 12z & 18z were crazy wet for much of the state and then the 0z says not so fast. I swear it's notorious for doing things like that though.

[South Texas Storms]

Really looking forward to the wet pattern arriving later this week. I'm optimistic that south central Texas will cash in this time. Come on rain!

[weatherdude1108]

Been in California this past week in the Sierras at 7,200 feet. Been low to mid 80s for highs, and consistently near 50 for lows. Thunderstorms pop up each day. No rain here yet. Lots of water from snowmelt feeding streams and lakes. No AC in cabin, but dry heat and chilly nights make it nice. Beautiful up here! Get back to Texas Friday, missing brutal heat, just in time for pattern change (?).

[Ntxw]

lucky soul!

I took a stroll this morning, it was low 70s and fairly dry and felt like precursor to fall days.

[Tireman4]

Could it be...could it...?


000
FXUS64 KHGX 310935
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
435 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Frontal boundary continues to make slow, but steady progress
across southwest zones early this morning. A thin band of shra/tstms
has once again developed along the windshift. Other than a few
lingering shra, most of this activity should be sw of the CWA and
in the Gulf by early to mid morning. Daytime highs today should
still be close to normal, but humidities will be lower than what
most are used to this time of year.

GOES-16 derived PW loop shows a tongue of higher moisture levels
situated along and south of the cntl La coast. Model guidance
depicts this making its way into the upper Tx coastal waters later
tonight and eventually inland Tue morning along with some associated
sct precip. Went ahead and nudged POPs up a touch south of I-10.

No significant changes to the ongoing forecast during the mid/late
week time period. Upper ridge is still expected to retreat westward
allowing a large broad trof to take shape over the eastern half
of the country. Locally, the weak surface front washes out and
deeper Gulf moisture will continue filtering back into the region
and bring a period of unsettled wx going into the weekend. Chances
of precip can be expected daily, esp across the southern 2/3 of
the region. It`ll probably follow a typical diurnal trend with
late night and morning activity near the coast spreading inland
during the day. However, there will also be some subtle,
hard-to-time disturbances embedded in the NW flow aloft to keep
an eye on as well. Medium range solns still bring a front close
to se Tx late Fri night. 47

.TROPICAL...
As just noted by NHC, Tropical Depression Six has formed in the
Gulf of Mexico about 75 miles west of Tampa Florida early this
morning. It should, in general, track eastward and is not expected
to bring any impacts to the upper Texas coast. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Light to moderate NE winds are expected to prevail across the bays
and coastal waters today through tomorrow. These slightly elevated
winds/seas (mainly over Galveston bay/nearshore waters) should re-
main just under Caution criteria. High pressure lingering over the
northern MS river valley will help keep these generally light E/NE
winds in the forecast through at least late Tue. As the high moves
off further east...light SE winds are forecast to return by Weds.
Otherwise a series of weak upper level disturbances moving in from
NW during the remainder of the week and then a possible cold front
approaching this upcoming weekend will help produce periods of un-
settled weather across the marine waters these next several days. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions expected as light NE winds prevail in the
wake of the cold front. This slightly drier airmass is forecast to
remain in place through late Tue. Of minor concern are the SH/TSRA
still forming along this boundary itself as it slowly moves across
the far SW portions of the CWA. Given the prevailing upper pattern
not expecting this line to regress back into SE TX at this time. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 74 95 75 91 / 0 0 10 20 40
Houston (IAH) 94 75 93 76 89 / 0 0 30 20 50
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 88 80 87 / 0 30 40 40 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

[CaptinCrunch]

Models have been crap with rain chances, last week had rain chances for the weekend, that dried up, then the forecast went to rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday, and now this morning I saw slight chance of rain every day through Saturday. If anyone does get rain can you please bring by my house, yard needs your help, thanks...lol

[Ntxw]

91 at DFW as of 3pm with a north wind gusting at times. No 100s forecast first week of August, low 90s. How unusual is this? You have to go back to 2007 for no 100s. First week of August is often the hottest week of summer for DFW annually. You have go back to 2004 for these kind of anomalies below.

Euro run keeps it below normal through the entire run

[bubba hotep]

Wow... 12z Euro EPS says the highest temp at DFW over the next two weeks is 91 and the mean is nearly 4" of rain

[Brent]

Wow... 12z Euro EPS says the highest temp at DFW over the next two weeks is 91 and the mean is nearly 4" of rain

Fall is that you?

on the 0z Euro DFW doesn't get above 90 the entire run!!!! It is August 1st, right??

[bubba hotep]

Wow... 12z Euro EPS says the highest temp at DFW over the next two weeks is 91 and the mean is nearly 4" of rain

Fall is that you?

on the 0z Euro DFW doesn't get above 90 the entire run!!!! It is August 1st, right??

And the Weeklies bring snow back to the Colorado Rockies. Surely summer will fight back but it's not looking good for any stretch of extended summer heat and drought.

[Ntxw]

A jog through memory lane.

On this day in 2011 marked one of the hottest weeks in DFW history and one of the hottest starts to August peaking at 110 on the second day.

First week of Aug 2011

1. 107
2. 110
3. 109
4. 108
5. 107
6. 105
7. 104

Makes the 85-95 temps coming feel chilly

[bubba hotep]

A jog through memory lane.

On this day in 2011 marked one of the hottest weeks in DFW history and one of the hottest starts to August peaking at 110 on the second day.

First week of Aug 2011

1. 107
2. 110
3. 109
4. 108
5. 107
6. 105
7. 104

Makes the 85-95 temps coming feel chilly

So ugly! That was my 1st summer here after living in DC. Talk about a rude awakening!

[aggiecutter]

[Portastorm]

A jog through memory lane.

On this day in 2011 marked one of the hottest weeks in DFW history and one of the hottest starts to August peaking at 110 on the second day.

First week of Aug 2011

1. 107
2. 110
3. 109
4. 108
5. 107
6. 105
7. 104

Makes the 85-95 temps coming feel chilly

Worst. Summer. Ever.

[Ntxw]

It really was by numbers too. Texas had the hottest June-August (met summer) of any state ever in 2011. Number 2 is Oklahoma of the same year. Number 3 is Oklahoma during the dust bowl year of 1934

[Tireman4]

A jog through memory lane.

On this day in 2011 marked one of the hottest weeks in DFW history and one of the hottest starts to August peaking at 110 on the second day.

First week of Aug 2011

1. 107
2. 110
3. 109
4. 108
5. 107
6. 105
7. 104

Makes the 85-95 temps coming feel chilly

Worst. Summer. Ever.

And that was the exact wording Porta used ( for the newbies) back in 2011. That High Pressure Ridge of Death actually ate a tropical storm ( Don). Sigh.

[bubba hotep]

12z 3k NAM drops a bunch of rain across DFW.

[gboudx]

And that was the exact wording Porta used ( for the newbies) back in 2011. That High Pressure Ridge of Death actually ate a tropical storm ( Don). Sigh.

Poor TS Don. The Death Ridge was the windshield, and Don was the bug. It didn't have a chance.

[JDawg512]

Temps are down compared to a few days ago but rain chances for the Austin area continue to look uncertain. EWX's overnight discussion keeps rain low for this area and has trended down end of the week chances.