ATL: IAN - Models

[p1nheadlarry]

The GEFS did not shift east very much if at all.

OP looks to be essentially down the middle of this group as well unlike yesterday.

[ConvergenceZone]

The EURO is one or 2 runs from missing all of FL to the east!. Still time for that solution to evolve. or for that to evolve and then flip back! Clarity from club NHC will be most helpful.

Yep, that's exactly what I thought we would start to see with the Euro and looks like it's happening. We'll see if the eastward shifts continue. May end up being just a carib storm and then out to sea..........Let's hope the trend continues anyway.... Crossing our fingers!!!

[caneseddy]

120 to 144 Hours Euro... Putting all of South Florida from Jupiter to the Keys on the dirty side of the storm.

Almost an identical track to Wilma.

Euro has been very consistent in the past several runs with Hermine/Ian hooking into the peninsula from Tampa Bay south unlike the GFS which has gone from Panama City Beach to Lake Charles and back to Pensacola.

And the Euro landfall is inside of 5 days which takes confidence up a notch. But like everyone has said lets wait till the storm actually forms.

Good thing I have a Publix next door to my building so I can just walk there instead of driving lol

[LarryWx]

If anyone has the 168 hour 12Z UKMET map and is able to post it, please do so. Thanks in advance.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1573018215025885184

[Lightning48]

Again one run doesn't change anything except that models change is some interpretation compared to its last run. The Euro for some reason and possibly correctly is expecting quite a deeper trough. If that trough is over estimated that can change the track sometimes 2-300 miles . My point as many of our astute posters have mentioned until it forms and we have a COC to work with, these models may be exciting but not actual. As they say trend is your friend. The Euro just switched so why should we believe that any more than the GFS which caved earlier- Just my thoughts-

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF avoids NC to the east. Whew what a trough.

[skyline385]

If anyone has the 168 hour 12Z UKMET map and is able to post it, please do so. Thanks in advance.

Not seeing it yet on weathermodels, just 0Z


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[gatorcane]

NAVGEM just east of Florida:

[toad strangler]

NAVGEM just east of Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/vZhj7JFP/navgem-mslp-uv850-watl-fh84-138.gif

THAT is very plausible in this setup. Unlike the intoxicated GFS far western "solutions"

[SouthFLTropics]

Pretty big early season trough. I'm guessing that the recurving typhoons in the WPAC have had a hand in amplifying the trough more than it normally would be.

Just took a look at the forecasted temps in other areas for next week. Western North Carolina has a low of 41 next Wednesday night. That's a bit nippy for late September, even in the WNC mountains.

[SFLcane]

NAVGEM just east of Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/vZhj7JFP/navgem-mslp-uv850-watl-fh84-138.gif

THAT is very plausible in this setup. Unlike the intoxicated GFS far western "solutions"

One can not invision the madness across South Florida if this comes to pass. We are talking 5 days away.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS 156 mean is quite a bit east of the 0Z EPS 168 mean. There are many tracks that go over far SE FL (mode and mean of the members) and even a decent number east of S FL/over NW Bahamas.

[jlauderdal]

NAVGEM just east of Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/vZhj7JFP/navgem-mslp-uv850-watl-fh84-138.gif

THAT is very plausible in this setup. Unlike the intoxicated GFS far western "solutions"

One can not invision the madness across South Florida if this comes to pass. We are talking 5 days away.

Irma wasnt long ago, full preps in sofla for that one

[chris_fit]

The 12Z EPS 156 mean is quite a bit east of the 0Z EPS 168 mean. There are many tracks that go over far SE FL and even a decent number east of S FL/over NW Bahamas.

What site you using? Mine is only out to 84hrs

[SFLcane]

THAT is very plausible in this setup. Unlike the intoxicated GFS far western "solutions"

One can not invision the madness across South Florida if this comes to pass. We are talking 5 days away.

Irma wasnt long ago, full preps in sofla for that one

Most have no idea what its like going through a major hurricane. South Florida metro dade, broward, west palm got lucky other then some gusts.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS 156 mean is quite a bit east of the 0Z EPS 168 mean. There are many tracks that go over far SE FL and even a decent number east of S FL/over NW Bahamas.

What site you using? Mine is only out to 84hrs

https://i.imgur.com/lslB4EM.png

Stormvista from a poster at another BB. More on the 156: There is quite an E shift of the mean to far SE FL, where the mode also now is. The mean member speed is quicker thus allowing for more members to be taken NE early with the trough. The mode on the 0Z was further NW near a Ft. Myers to Melbourne track.

[SFLcane]

[cycloneye]

Breaking news. TVCN now crosses Florida Penninsula.

[chris_fit]

12Z EPS - Florida Florida Florida