ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Convection coiling up with a potential cdo developing.

[GCANE]

IR Sats show a much improved wind field

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 2211090900

[GCANE]

Hot tower just NNE of the CoC.
Nice cirrus outflow after it fired.

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 090926.jpg

[GCANE]

That infeed of UL moisture I mentioned last night seems to have done the trick.
Poleward outflow looks good

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=g ... orbar=data

[GCANE]

Latest sat radar sounding showing a very elongated warm core.
Basically, from the boundary layer to the tropopause.
Cold boundary layer not too far away from the CoC.
Likely, pulling heat out of the ocean now.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... _xsect.gif

[Jr0d]

That infeed of UL moisture I mentioned last night seems to have done the trick.
Poleward outflow looks good

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=g ... orbar=data

Lets hope Nichole is unable to tap into the moist air over central Cuba.

Still a lot of dry air to the east and south of the storm. Hopefully that is a limiting factor.

[GCANE]

VDM tags it 986 mb

[skillz305]

Vero Beach here! (Work in fort pierce) we’re at work today

[Blown Away]

VDM tags it 986 mb

GFS & HWRF now showing pressures below 980 mb before FL.

[jlauderdal]

Vero Beach here! (Work in fort pierce) we’re at work today

Gotta build those boats for the citizens. Stay safe on the way home, maybe early dismissal.

[wxman57]

Definitely not a hurricane. Though the pressure is low, the pressure field is so large that the gradient can't support hurricane force winds. Can't use this one's pressure to say it's a hurricane. Max winds look like possibly 55kts in a small area.

[cane5]

Blowing up on the latest satellite shots just ahead of the gulfstream, could get a little more interesting. Also looks to be completing the wsw move but not quite sure. looks like a real storm is developing…lol

[GCANE]

Looks like a moderate risk of tornadoes around the northern eyewall as Nicole makes landfall.
Slight risk extends to Brunswick, GA

[GCANE]

CIMSS showing dropping shear ahead of Nicole.
Models had forecast shear in excess of 25 knots prior to landfall.

[PavelGaborik10]

Winds are pretty unimpressive relative to pressure, shouldn't be shocking considering the size of the system.

Still think she will attain Hurricane status prior to landfall.

[Blown Away]

[NDG]

[NDG]

AF recon finds slightly stronger flight level winds than NOAA recon but nothing close to hurricane force winds at the surface. Seems to be moving now almost due west.

URNT15 KNHC 091152
AF309 1117A NICOLE HDOB 23 20221109
114400 2634N 07605W 8425 01368 9857 +179 //// 149009 010 024 000 01
114430 2636N 07604W 8428 01366 9855 +178 //// 148013 015 024 000 01
114500 2637N 07602W 8428 01368 9853 +187 +179 141020 023 028 001 00
114530 2638N 07601W 8421 01375 9853 +190 +174 144026 028 029 000 00
114600 2639N 07600W 8429 01370 9858 +189 +172 142033 036 038 003 00
114630 2640N 07558W 8418 01383 9865 +182 +175 141040 042 047 001 00
114700 2642N 07557W 8428 01379 9871 +181 +176 143051 054 049 001 00
114730 2643N 07556W 8422 01387 9874 +186 +162 143054 055 049 001 00
114800 2644N 07554W 8429 01389 9885 +181 +164 142056 058 050 000 03
114830 2645N 07553W 8426 01397 9892 +181 +154 140056 058 049 000 00
114900 2646N 07552W 8421 01413 9903 +176 +155 141057 059 047 000 00
114930 2647N 07550W 8427 01410 9913 +166 //// 142053 056 046 004 01
115000 2649N 07549W 8429 01416 9920 +169 +167 140057 058 045 001 00
115030 2650N 07548W 8419 01430 9925 +170 +162 141056 057 045 001 00
115100 2651N 07547W 8435 01418 //// +147 //// 142056 057 044 002 01
115130 2652N 07545W 8422 01439 9943 +162 //// 139054 055 043 003 01
115200 2653N 07544W 8426 01438 9946 +164 //// 139055 055 043 001 01
115230 2654N 07543W 8428 01443 9950 +163 //// 139054 055 042 003 01
115300 2656N 07541W 8432 01442 //// +150 //// 137052 053 044 005 01
115330 2657N 07540W 8424 01452 9960 +161 //// 137053 053 044 004 01
$$

[eastcoastFL]

I can not believe I still have work this morning in Jupiter. I sure hope they don’t close the draw bridges before I leave. The wind has been howling all night here in Palm City and I imagine it’s not going to get much better as the day goes on.

[eastcoastFL]

https://postimg.cc/GTbXLYGD
https://i.postimg.cc/0jwFC0NV/goes16-vi ... 091037.gif

What a huge storm.