Deep South Winter 2024-2025-2026

[Jag95]

Took a break from model watching and now the NAM stalls the front in north AL. What a difference a few model runs make. Might be best in the case.

[Powellrm]

I didn’t let myself get too excited or carried away with the models yesterday. (Central NC) General rule of thumb is that the i85 corridor in the northern portion of NC is a magical snow barrier. North of 85-snow. South of 85-rain/sleet/ice/disappointment.

I had to talk down a lot of friends yesterday. Lots of people here today are talking about “we might get two feet of snow this weekend!” I knew it would mostly just be ice, and have the potential to be crippling.

Waiting for the GFS to wake up and consolidate into more of an agreement with the Euro. GFS did not handle components of this system particularly well. The GFS definitely has its biases. Yesterday, I noticed that the ICON picked up on the warm air influence pushing north from the gulf.

Edit: interested to see the information from the recon data later today. That’ll be telling.

[Jag95]

The 00z Gfs showing that 3rd system the Canadian was hinting at with heavy snow along the Gulf coast late next week


https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20260121/10c04db3f16495793f6a2649145eae65.jpg

The latest GFS is too far north; the latest Euro is too far south. What they both show is another major dump of cold air behind.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Just kinda watching here in Huntsville. I have a flight booked to Houston Friday afternoon, but if it is canceled, not sure what to do. I live on my own in an apartment without a car, so not many means of getting or storing supplies...

[MississippiWx]

Models continue to trend more amped for the Southeast. What was once a prolific and historic looking snowstorm in Tennessee, Northern Alabama, Northern Mississippi, and into the Carolinas has turned into an ice storm look for them. On the flip side, what looked like an ice storm for those of us closer to the coast has turned into a heavy rain and possible severe weather look.

My instinct told me this would trend north and that’s what I posted a couple of days ago. I guess there is still technically time to go south, but the 00z GFS just jumped big time to the north over the Southeast to look very similar to the Euro. Believe time has ran out for any winter precip for many south of 1-20 and east of I-59. Keep watching, of course, but I’d be more concerned for tornadoes in South Alabama, South Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. Looks like Mother Nature is going to balance the forces of nature and make you pay for that snow you just received. Boring, miserable dry cold in the wake. Terrible.

[Jag95]

Models continue to trend more amped for the Southeast. What was once a prolific and historic looking snowstorm in Tennessee, Northern Alabama, Northern Mississippi, and into the Carolinas has turned into an ice storm look for them. On the flip side, what looked like an ice storm for those of us closer to the coast has turned into a heavy rain and possible severe weather look.

My instinct told me this would trend north and that’s what I posted a couple of days ago. I guess there is still technically time to go south, but the 00z GFS just jumped big time to the north over the Southeast to look very similar to the Euro. Believe time has ran out for any winter precip for many south of 1-20 and east of I-59. Keep watching, of course, but I’d be more concerned for tornadoes in South Alabama, South Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. Looks like Mother Nature is going to balance the forces of nature and make you pay for that snow you just received. Boring, miserable dry cold in the wake. Terrible.

Chances of mixed precip near here look to be out. Even Huntsville might struggle to see any flakes. But we sure could use the rain. That's what I'll be looking forward to.
00Z GFS has jumped back on a possible event somewhere around the end of the month. The 18Z had the low to the south and actually showed 4" for the Gainesville area. Now it's back to the north showing snow along the north central GOM. This will jump around, but I've noticed the GFS do this several times, signal an event like this 10 days out, lose it, and then come back around 4 or 5 days out.

The 00Z Canadian is also back on board. The Euro is close, showing snow offshore.

[Ivanhater]

Yep. The end of the month storm came roaring back on the 00z suite




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[Ivanhater]

And as Mswx said. We need to be concerned about Tornadoes on Sunday on the Gulf coast. What an active pattern we are in

[Ivanhater]

06Z holds serve.

As Jag mentioned, I fully expect models to go
back and forth on this but this 3rd system has been showing up in multiple models for a couple days now.



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[MississippiWx]

06Z holds serve.

As Jag mentioned, I fully expect models to go
back and forth on this but this 3rd system has been showing up in multiple models for a couple days now.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20260122/fd1372c1c06a1618d56dc41b91aae47a.jpg

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I’m sure it’ll happen this time.

[Kingarabian]

This is particularly bad for NC on the RGEM. Sleet/Ice for 36 hours straight for central NC. Temps will be below below freezing for about 5 days straight. Looks like any moisture coming in ends up freezing. Hope the warm nose backs off and just lets it snow or sleet instead.

[Jag95]

The 12Z GFS still shows the storm next weekend but deepens it and goes a little north. Snowmageddon in northern MS/AL. Nearly 30 inches with crazy rates. Over two feet in 12 hours.

[tolakram]

Up here I think we'll get a lot more sleet out of this than forecast, as per usual, but it will still be bad. I hope the freezing rain line is less than forecast, that level of damage will take weeks to fix.

[Ivanhater]

18z Gfs still has a strong signal for next week



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[Jag95]

Don't think I've ever seen damming to the extent of Monday's NAM. Mid 20's on the Carolina side of the Apps while mid 50's a relatively short distance away on western side of the range.

https://imgur.com/a/jKJeO5g

[Ivanhater]

06Z Gfs most aggressive yet




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[Ivanhater]

Continues with a monster winter storm for the entire Gulf Coast and snow in Disney world



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[Jag95]

Continues with a monster winter storm for the entire Gulf Coast and snow in Disney world

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20260123/0a88cdb1f1efe55a90d5ad0c118b67b5.jpg

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12" in NOLA, 8 or 9 here, 9 or 10 in P'cola. Sure this is 2026?

[Ivanhater]

Continues with a monster winter storm for the entire Gulf Coast and snow in Disney world

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20260123/0a88cdb1f1efe55a90d5ad0c118b67b5.jpg

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12" in NOLA, 8 or 9 here, 9 or 10 in P'cola. Sure this is 2026?

The Gulf low pretty much takes the path from last year. We'll see if it cuts north or suppressed south but we are within a week now.

I didn't even need to drink my coffee this morning to wake up after seeing that run

[Jag95]

The 06Z Euro tries to develop it but it gets suppressed. The 00Z Canadian does develop it but doesn't show as cold as GFS.

Bear watch.