Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[Evil Jeremy]

165 MPH, Catagory 5

[vacanechaser]

053
WTNT31 KNHC 022359
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

...FELIX NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR ABOUT 390 MILES...
625 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE TO BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE
DATA IS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...13.8 N...72.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Ptarmigan]

I am not surprised that Felix is now a 5.

[jaxfladude]

CAT FIVE MAD CAT FELIX!! AS PER THE 8PM NHC/TPC ADVISORY

[vacanechaser]

270
WTNT41 KNHC 022359
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX
HAS INTENSIFIED AND IS NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. THE AIRCRAFT
REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 152 KT...WITH PEAK SFMR WINDS
OF 142 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. HIGHER SFMR WINDS WERE FOUND
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...UP TO 163 KT...BUT THESE MAY HAVE BEEN
CONTAMINATED BY GROUPEL. A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT LANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND THIS DROP YIELDED A
SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 139 KT BASED ON THE LOWEST 150 M LAYER AVERAGE.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE PEAK SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT
LEAST 145 KT. AN EYE SONDE MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 936 MB
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 24 KT. BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME TURBULENCE AND
GROUPEL THAT THE AIRCRAFT EXPERIENCED...THE MISSION IS BEING
ABORTED AND THE AIRCRAFT IS RETURNING TO ST. CROIX.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITIES. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE BEING
MADE. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE
SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0000Z 13.8N 72.9W 145 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 14.1N 74.5W 150 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 14.8N 78.0W 145 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 15.4N 81.1W 145 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 83.5W 145 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 17.3N 87.7W 135 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 19.5N 91.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 95.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN

[MGC]

Yep, looks to be getting very close to Cat-5. Hurricanes continue to amaze me. I would not be surprised to see a Cat-5 at the 11pm advisory. Looks like Felix is exhibiting a long period trochoidal wobble ATT......MGC

Note: Felix was upgraded while I typed this....MGC

[Brent]

Yep, looks to be getting very close to Cat-5. Hurricanes continue to amaze me. I would not be surprised to see a Cat-5 at the 11pm advisory. Looks like Felix is exhibiting a long period trochoidal wobble ATT......MGC

Or at 8pm...

800 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

...FELIX NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is amazing! who would have thought just 2 days ago that on Sunday we would have a 165mph Category 5 hurricane?!?

[Pebbles]

BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME TURBULENCE AND
GROUPEL THAT THE AIRCRAFT EXPERIENCED...THE MISSION IS BEING
ABORTED AND THE AIRCRAFT IS RETURNING TO ST. CROIX.

wow so bad they won't fly in it! now that's something else! I will GOGGLE at that in shock

[jhamps10]

wow, it must be VERY extreme for recon to abort the mission.
Which is a shame really, as we won't know the true strength of this thing until the next flight gets in, but safety is the most important thing here.

[Duddy]

270
WTNT41 KNHC 022359
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX
HAS INTENSIFIED AND IS NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. THE AIRCRAFT
REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 152 KT...WITH PEAK SFMR WINDS
OF 142 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. HIGHER SFMR WINDS WERE FOUND
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...UP TO 163 KT...BUT THESE MAY HAVE BEEN
CONTAMINATED BY GROUPEL. A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT LANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND THIS DROP YIELDED A
SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 139 KT BASED ON THE LOWEST 150 M LAYER AVERAGE.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE PEAK SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT
LEAST 145 KT. AN EYE SONDE MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 936 MB
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 24 KT. BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME TURBULENCE AND
GROUPEL THAT THE AIRCRAFT EXPERIENCED...THE MISSION IS BEING
ABORTED AND THE AIRCRAFT IS RETURNING TO ST. CROIX.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITIES. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE BEING
MADE. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE
SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0000Z 13.8N 72.9W 145 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 14.1N 74.5W 150 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 14.8N 78.0W 145 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 15.4N 81.1W 145 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 83.5W 145 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 17.3N 87.7W 135 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 19.5N 91.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 95.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN

OMG I hope their future missions go well, I HATE turbulance, especially when it's extreme.

[HarlequinBoy]

That's concerning about the recon. Hope everything is okay.

[PhillyWX]

wow, it must be VERY extreme for recon to abort the mission.
Which is a shame really, as we won't know the true strength of this thing until the next flight gets in, but safety is the most important thing here.

getting graupel coming down and at you at 150+ mph will cause that to happen. I'm glad NOAA got the heck out of dodge for their own safety. Wow.

[MGC]

Graupel.....ice crystals......MGC

[GeneratorPower]

Good grief! Aborted mission? Extreme turbulence? WOW WOW WOW

[jhamps10]

BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME TURBULENCE AND
GROUPEL THAT THE AIRCRAFT EXPERIENCED...THE MISSION IS BEING
ABORTED AND THE AIRCRAFT IS RETURNING TO ST. CROIX.

guys, im afraid that this thing isn't done strengthening yet, usually when you have groupel in a tropical storm, that's a good sign that it aien't done getting stronger. I'm almost afraid to see how strong it can get. Hopefully I'm wrong on this and it stops this insane RI cycle, but I don't think were done yet folks.

[jaxfladude]

IS THE RECON CREW SAFE??
PRAYERS FOR THEM IN ANY CASE!!

[Cyclenall]

Good Greif, so bad that recon had to get out of there!?!?! AMAZING.

[jhamps10]

IS THE RECON CREW SAFE??
PRAYERS FOR THEM IN ANY CASE!!

I'd say that they are safe, I think they turned around due to the extreme conditions, that's all, espically since i believe we are still getting recon data.

[Coredesat]

The 163kt SFMR reading may not be correct if there was extreme turbulence and graupel affecting the plane. Would it be possible for an instrument to be damaged?