CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[HURAKAN]

This will be my final report of the night.

Good night everyone, there is a big day coming and I need some sleep!!!

[Aquawind]

Good Night and Thanks

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/domrep.shtml

a death from Hispaniola... one wandered too near to the coast according to that report

[Sanibel]

Still no reports from Martinique on Stormcarib.com - Power must be down.

Jamaicans are really bracing and hoping their prayers will send the storm offshore.

[dwsqos2]

Eyewall Drop...

000
UZNT13 KNHC 190454
XXAA 69047 99164 70720 04462 99/// ///// ///// 00/// ///// /////
92140 24200 10139 85908 22206 12133 70553 14211 14096 88999 77999
31313 09608 80414
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 31
62626 EYEWALL 045 0417 MBL WND 10634 AEV 00000 =
XXBB 69048 99164 70720 04462 00/// ///// 11940 25000 22850 22206
33697 14011
21212 00/// ///// 11940 08638 22932 09633 33922 10644 44915 10645
55907 10630 66852 12134 77697 14095
31313 09608 80414
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 31
62626 EYEWALL 045 0417 MBL WND 10634 AEV 00000 =

no surface winds or pressure; 925 mb winds of 139 knots; MBL winds of 134 knots.




000
URNT15 KNHC 190459
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 46 20070819
044830 1528N 07157W 6969 03083 9975 +090 +070 240060 061 053 000 00
044900 1528N 07154W 6966 03086 9969 +097 +063 235058 059 053 001 00
044930 1529N 07152W 6964 03087 9970 +095 +061 232061 062 052 002 00
045000 1529N 07150W 6967 03088 9975 +095 +064 233061 062 052 000 00
045030 1529N 07147W 6967 03090 9986 +087 +071 232061 061 051 000 00
045100 1530N 07145W 6965 03093 9991 +082 +079 234062 063 050 000 00
045130 1530N 07143W 6969 03089 9990 +083 +083 231062 062 049 003 03
045200 1531N 07141W 6963 03102 9997 +082 +082 229061 062 049 004 03
045230 1532N 07139W 6972 03092 0005 +076 +076 228061 061 052 004 00
045300 1534N 07137W 6965 03099 0014 +072 +072 223058 060 052 005 03
045330 1536N 07137W 6964 03102 0013 +072 +072 219056 057 999 999 03
045400 1537N 07138W 6975 03080 9989 +085 +082 221058 060 049 000 03
045430 1539N 07139W 6964 03088 9979 +089 +067 222063 064 051 000 00
045500 1540N 07140W 6968 03079 9973 +089 +075 220065 065 051 001 00
045530 1541N 07142W 6968 03074 9972 +086 +073 222065 066 052 001 00
045600 1542N 07143W 6961 03084 9973 +080 +080 220066 067 054 003 00
045630 1544N 07144W 6976 03056 9965 +081 +081 217064 065 055 028 03
045700 1545N 07146W 6963 03063 9962 +078 +078 215068 069 056 008 00
045730 1546N 07147W 6970 03055 9967 +072 +072 216068 069 059 007 00
045800 1547N 07148W 6961 03057 9953 +075 +075 220071 073 060 007 00
$$

[theworld]

I need a radio news station link from Jamaica (or talk show). Anyone? Thanksssss

http://www.abyznewslinks.com/jamai.htm

http://www.go-jamaica.com/power/index.html

http://www.jamaica-gleaner.com/

[artist]

490
URNT12 KNHC 190447
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 19/04:17:00Z
B. 16 deg 17 min N
072 deg 05 min W
C. 700 mb 2391 m
D. 108 kt
E. 046 deg 014 nm
F. 128 deg 122 kt
G. 047 deg 020 nm
H. EXTRAP 920 mb
I. 7 C/ 3046 m
J. 18 C/ 3046 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C23
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0704A DEAN OB 28
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 04:10:50 Z
INNER EYEWALL REMNANTS OPEN NNE AND E030/18/15
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

[Evil Jeremy]

This might sound weird to some of you, but I like to think of an ERC sort of as a slingshot:

The Hurricane's Pressure is the Slingshot, and the pressure falling is like the slingshot being pulled back. What is inside the slingshot would be the Wind (like a rock), and the thing holding the slingshot back is the ERC (hand). So when the ERC is done, the Winds will shoot higher. Anyone understand?

[dwsqos2]

Eyewall Drop...

000
UZNT13 KNHC 190504
XXAA 69047 99161 70723 04462 99950 25600 ///// 00956 ///// /////
92234 24000 28596 85977 21400 30071 70639 09600 31079 88999 77999
31313 09608 80421
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 32
62626 EYEWALL 225 SPL 1607N07223W 0423 LST WND 015 MBL WND 28591
AEV 00000 DL M WND 29585 948813 WL150 28084 090 =
XXBB 69048 99161 70723 04462 00950 25600 11867 22000 22850 21400
33813 20800 44697 09400
21212 00950 ///// 11948 28075 22924 28597 33902 29093 44894 29584
55887 30088 66881 31082 77861 30580 88846 30070 99697 31579
31313 09608 80421
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 32
62626 EYEWALL 225 SPL 1607N07223W 0423 LST WND 015 MBL WND 28591
AEV 00000 DL M WND 29585 948813 WL150 28084 090 =


950 mb; no surface winds; 925 mb winds of 96 knots; MBL winds of 91 knots.



000
URNT15 KNHC 190509
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 47 20070819
045830 1549N 07149W 6966 03041 9932 +084 +084 219075 077 063 006 00
045900 1550N 07151W 6968 03029 9929 +079 +079 220079 080 066 008 00
045930 1551N 07152W 6967 03024 9914 +082 +082 218079 081 068 009 00
050000 1552N 07153W 6965 03013 9918 +072 +072 220082 085 069 043 03
050030 1554N 07154W 6970 02996 9900 +074 +074 226079 083 072 011 00
050100 1555N 07156W 6962 02990 9880 +077 +077 223081 085 074 011 03
050130 1556N 07157W 6968 02970 9881 +065 +065 222086 088 077 046 03
050200 1557N 07158W 6960 02968 9858 +071 +071 225081 082 081 010 00
050230 1558N 07159W 6965 02943 9824 +084 +084 223075 077 083 009 00
050300 1600N 07200W 6964 02932 9786 +103 +103 221076 078 083 009 00
050330 1601N 07202W 6968 02916 9763 +109 +098 222081 083 084 010 00
050400 1602N 07203W 6959 02908 9742 +111 +097 222086 087 086 002 00
050430 1603N 07204W 6963 02883 9724 +108 +097 222090 091 085 001 00
050500 1604N 07205W 6965 02860 9712 +100 +100 219096 099 085 006 00
050530 1606N 07206W 6973 02825 9702 +084 +084 220098 100 085 009 03
050600 1607N 07208W 6967 02806 9657 +098 +098 222097 098 093 005 00
050630 1608N 07209W 6966 02779 9607 +113 +113 222098 099 095 004 00
050700 1609N 07210W 6972 02738 9575 +109 +109 221100 102 095 012 00
050730 1610N 07211W 6965 02714 9542 +105 +105 224099 105 090 009 03
050800 1611N 07212W 6979 02663 9501 +107 +107 223076 078 075 018 00
$$

105 knots peak at flight-level; 95 knots peak SFMR.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Also as the larger eye takes over the pressure moves to equallise with the winds. I expect this thing has its curving out its new larger eye to rise to 930-935 before it starts really contracting again. I remember Ivan doing just this in one of its EWRC's.

[mgpetre]

I just don't see it... looks like the low is much stronger than anticipated (just a hunch) and I think this thing will be at or north of Jamaica before tomorrow's over. Just have to wait and see.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

With the lastest recon being 2 millibars higher already, I expect that it is already happening.

[Evil Jeremy]

Thanks for all the work your doing for us, guys

[deltadog03]

There is some dry air in there as well. I mean, its sucking something in from the islands for sure. Notice on the WV...just west of jamaica that ULL is being felt. You can clearly see the storms and there interaction with dean's outflow.

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 190519
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 48 20070819
050830 1613N 07214W 6965 02645 9438 +139 +110 222082 084 071 005 00
050900 1614N 07215W 6965 02604 9388 +144 +119 223084 085 071 001 00
050930 1615N 07216W 6959 02565 9330 +149 +146 222077 080 073 002 00
051000 1616N 07217W 6972 02495 9271 +154 +154 220059 067 068 002 00
051030 1618N 07219W 6966 02464 9235 +151 +151 220034 042 053 002 00
051100 1619N 07220W 6969 02441 9218 +150 +150 221009 015 035 002 03
051130 1619N 07220W 6969 02441 9250 +147 +147 233004 025 038 004 03
051200 1621N 07222W 6963 02468 9250 +154 +148 042016 032 035 001 03
051230 1623N 07221W 6967 02447 9209 +162 +153 074030 034 045 001 00
051300 1624N 07219W 6969 02452 9224 +152 +152 112044 049 052 002 00
051330 1624N 07219W 6969 02452 9259 +147 +147 115046 058 059 003 00
051400 1626N 07217W 6967 02519 9314 +141 +141 131078 100 102 008 00
051430 1627N 07216W 6968 02570 9362 +135 +135 134110 111 104 004 00
051500 1628N 07215W 6964 02621 9427 +121 +121 134110 111 099 007 00
051530 1629N 07213W 6967 02656 9487 +100 +100 135112 112 103 010 00
051600 1629N 07213W 6967 02656 9535 +093 +093 135112 112 104 027 00
051630 1631N 07211W 6956 02744 9583 +081 +081 133124 131 105 014 05
051700 1631N 07211W 6956 02744 9606 +084 +084 131129 131 105 014 05
051730 1633N 07209W 6968 02789 9623 +116 +107 129129 130 104 002 00
051800 1634N 07208W 6966 02822 9656 +112 +088 131127 128 100 004 00
$$

131 knots peak at flight-level; 105 knots peak SFMR. Minimum extrapolated pressure is higher: 920.9 mb.




Eye Drop...

000
UZNT13 KNHC 190522
XXAA 69057 99163 70723 04462 99921 28002 ///// 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85714 24000 ///// 70402 15200 02007 88999 77999
31313 09608 80511
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 34
62626 EYE SPL 1632N07234W 0514 LST WND 004 AEV 00000 DLM WND
33009 92 1735 WL150 30506 078 =
XXBB 69058 99163 70723 04462 00921 28002 11850 24000 22730 18800
33697 15000
21212 00921 30506 11738 34010 22697 02507
31313 09608 80511
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 34
62626 EYE SPL 1632N07234W 0514 LST WND 004 AEV 00000 DLM WND
33009 92 1735 WL150 30506 078 =


921 mb; no surface winds.

[Aquawind]

It's going to take awhile and will look alot worse before it ~improves around the eye.. Hopefully it hasn't completed the cycle and have a pinhole before passing Jamaica at least.. It will still be a large Major hurricane.

[dwsqos2]

Eyewall Drop...

000
UZNT13 KNHC 190524
XXAA 69057 99162 70722 04462 99966 ///// 18578 00/// ///// /////
92222 24802 20090 85966 22827 20593 70638 12400 22099 88999 77999
31313 09608 80507
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 35
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 1625N07215W 0511 MBL WND 20087 AEV 00000
DLM WND 20590 949709 WL150 19086 079 =
XXBB 69058 99162 70722 04462 00966 ///// 11949 26402 22850 22827
33810 19601 44722 15402 55703 14600 66696 10000
21212 00966 18578 11946 18580 22935 19590 33914 20090 44904 20086
55875 20587 66850 20593 77696 22102
31313 09608 80507
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 35
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 1625N07215W 0511 MBL WND 20087 AEV 00000
DLM WND 20590 949709 WL150 19086 079 =


966 mb; surface winds of 78 knots; MBL winds of 87 knots.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It has risen another millibar, now 921 millibars. It is rising because of the larger eye is some what less intense then what the tiny inner one was. But the flight level winds are now 131 knots. I expect the pressure to rise back into the 930s before 8am est. Then I expect this to bomb again as the eye retracts. Also we do have to watch for dry air...But I don't see any shear from the ull to hurt the outflow to much.

[Aquawind]

00Z NOGAPS is Mexico..

96hrs

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z GFDL and UKMET have been posted on this map: