ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[abajan]

For OrlandoKnight:
If you have large trees with large limbs near the house, it would be a good idea to move - even a couple blocks away to a clearer location.

That's the thing about large trees. They can be a blessing, because they act as windbreaks. However, if they're close enough to hit the house if they were to topple, then they're a curse!

[Hammy]

Taking the inner eye wall out of the picture as the direction of movement is quite unstable at the moment, this seems to be the general movement over the course of the loop above, using the outer eye wall as reference using the above loop as reference.

[ZX12R]

Lining-up for one well-defined intensification eye over the Gulf Stream prior to landfall?

Don't say that.

[Fountainguy97]

Inner eye is making a tight cyclonic loop as the outer eye crashes inward. Once the eyes join NWmotion will resume but this may set the storm a few miles further west

[SunnyThoughts]

Looks to me as if the outer eyewall and the inner eyewall will merge together soon...and we will have only one. NOt sure if that would mean strengthen or weaken...but looks to be what is happening in my opinion.

[1900hurricane]

I don't think the inner eyewall is going anywhere within the next twelve hours at least. If anything, it looks like the outer eyewall has lost a little bit of definition while trying to unevenly contract.

So do you think the inner eyewall will "win"? The outer eyewall will just contract and fill in the gaps?

If left undisturbed, the outer eyewall will eventually win. However, it's going to be slow going. Large eyewalls often don't contract evenly, which leads to drawn out and sometimes sloppy eyewall replacement cycles where it takes a long time to choke off the inner eyewall. Core dynamics are extremely hard to predict, but this could be one of those longer eyewall replacement cycles.

[Steve]

Looks like people in SFL are pissed off and have become completely complacent.

Comments like "I did all this for nothing", "I bought all his food" "news always hypes up storms" "I will never believe another news channel again" "next hurricane will be a cat 5 and they will hype it up again and then it gets close and steers away"

And this is the effect that I did not want when they started hyping this up, and I have been vehemently against such language being used. Especially for the zones where it was NOT expected to directly to impact. (Miami-Dade Chances were < 5%). Squalls and bands and tornadic activity can be dangerous, but the expectation should have been set lower with more "precotionary" tones. Staying off the road and getting non-perishable in case of power outage was appropriate. Boarding up and creating a bunker in Dade/Broward was inappropriate and the response is now coming in kind.

That being said, the expected zone for landfall/closest approach should still take it seriously.

Stupid group think. They'll change their tune by Sunday when they see all the destruction up and down the coast. It looks like that outer eyewall is making a b-line for West Palm Beach. I've been on record since September 24 that we didn't know what Matthew was going to do for at least a week (and then added possibly until this past Tuesday) and then even hedged that Tuesday to end of the week. I'm ready to hedge a guess and say this comes in or scrapes in just north of Jupiter probably between Hobe Sound and Port Salerno. I think it will be a high end 3 (possibly 4 winds over water) at landfall. And I think a lot of people are in for an incredibly rude awakening tonight. Yeah, I could be 100% wrong, but I don't think so. I'll own it if I am.

[ThetaE]

In some ways, I think a "dodged bullet" like what the 18z GFS shows could prove more worrisome overall in future years. To us board members, who have a pretty good understanding of how tropical cyclones work, we recognize that the exact landfall of such systems comes down to very small intricacies in the storm that are hard to predict. To the general public, however, who likely don't know of these things, such a miss will make the storm seem like "no big deal" after all. And then, when a storm this dangerous eventually threatens the US again (as it will undoubtedly happen), this storm will come to mind of many, and what's to say those people won't just shrug their shoulders and say, "Well, Matthew was a category 4, and he wasn't a big deal...." Perhaps I'm over-exaggerating the response on the public's side some, but as I've read through the forum today, I've seen countless signs that many people are unaware or underestimating the danger Matthew poses, and if their beliefs are confirmed when they're likely taking precautions, I don't think they'll be so cautious the next time, and that could prove to be a big problem.

EDIT: And even still, I don't think impacts will be that reduced if Matthew stays off the coast. If they are, however, then this could become a "boy who cried wolf" situation.

[gatorcane]

Big wobble west is here, getting windier in Boca Raton, still have power

[Fountainguy97]

Very cold tops popping around the inner eye wall. The inner eye will expand and the outer will contract until they meet in the middle... and when they do.... convection should explode and windfield expand further

[Hammy]

In some ways, I think a "dodged bullet" like what the 18z GFS shows could prove more worrisome overall in future years. To us board members, who have a pretty good understanding of how tropical cyclones work, we recognize that the exact landfall of such systems comes down to very small intricacies in the storm that are hard to predict. To the general public, however, who likely don't know of these things, such a miss will make the storm seem like "no big deal" after all. And then, when a storm this dangerous eventually threatens the US again (as it will undoubtedly happen), this storm will come to mind of many, and what's to say those people won't just shrug their shoulders and say, "Well, Matthew was a category 4, and he wasn't a big deal...." Perhaps I'm over-exaggerating the response on the public's side some, but as I've read through the forum today, I've seen countless signs that many people are unaware or underestimating the danger Matthew poses, and if their beliefs are confirmed when they're likely taking precautions, I don't think they'll be so cautious the next time, and that could prove to be a big problem.

I've already talked to someone who refused to leave and is only preparing for minimal conditions on the basis of 'because Floyd didn't hit, this won't either.' Very dangerous mindset for people to have.

[ZX12R]

The center of Matthew has definitely been evolving since the creation of a secondary eyewall, But what will be the end result?

[ronyan]

Buoy NW of Freeport now at hurricane force.

[tolakram]

So for those thinking bad decisions were made, or things were hyped, I'd like you to put yourself in the shoes of an emergency manager who has to make these decisions.

I made a storm page where I posted recent model runs, and previous runs for the GFS and ECMWF.

app.php/page/StormTracking

If it was your job to make the call, what would you do? How long would you wait? What would you do for farther up the coast? Please don't answer, I just want people to consider the possibilities. A hurricane wobbles, it never follows a straight line. A wobble in the middle of the ocean is nothing, a wobble close to shore means landfall. Emergency management is a tough and thankless job, give these folks some credit.

[Aric Dunn]

GRand Bahama

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1

[JarrodB]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1

I would be surprised if the weather station at Settlement Point survives the storm, as of 6pm EDT/AST it recorded sustained 65 knots and a peak gust of 85 knots.

I'm pretty sure the observation station was just outside of the inner eyewall.

[Steve]

In some ways, I think a "dodged bullet" like what the 18z GFS shows could prove more worrisome overall in future years. To us board members, who have a pretty good understanding of how tropical cyclones work, we recognize that the exact landfall of such systems comes down to very small intricacies in the storm that are hard to predict. To the general public, however, who likely don't know of these things, such a miss will make the storm seem like "no big deal" after all. And then, when a storm this dangerous eventually threatens the US again (as it will undoubtedly happen), this storm will come to mind of many, and what's to say those people won't just shrug their shoulders and say, "Well, Matthew was a category 4, and he wasn't a big deal...." Perhaps I'm over-exaggerating the response on the public's side some, but as I've read through the forum today, I've seen countless signs that many people are unaware or underestimating the danger Matthew poses, and if their beliefs are confirmed when they're likely taking precautions, I don't think they'll be so cautious the next time, and that could prove to be a big problem.

I've already talked to someone who refused to leave and is only preparing for minimal conditions on the basis of 'because Floyd didn't hit, this won't either.' Very dangerous mindset for people to have.

You know that new saying, you can argue with stupid but can't fix it? It's the Darwin effect. People sometimes have to learn the hard way. My middle kid is often like that (though he respects hurricanes at least).

[blp]

I think it is happening now. The inner eye wall is breaking down fast on the south side.

[bamajammer4eva]

Freeport (settlement Point ) sustained winds 75 gusts to 87 980mb

[ozonepete]

Has anyone else noted that the 18z GFS run has Matthew staying off the coast until about Georgetown SC, and making the turn farther north than the earlier runs?

Yes, we're all looking at it and taking notice. We need to wait for a lot more model runs later tonight to see if it's really meaningful. You have to find a trend and consensus in most of not all of the models and the actual data before changing the forecast.