Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

It looks like in Puerto Rico,we will see a fairly decent weekend with the usual afternoon showers.On Monday,moisture increases again for another round of rain.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST FRI JUL 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE WEST OF PUERTO RICO INTERACTING WITH
WEAK UPPER TROUGH NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. DRIER WEATHER IN STORE
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND
FLOW BEHIND IN WAKE OF WAVE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER AN ACTIVE MORNING ACROSS THE USVI MOST OF THE
CONVECTION DIED OUT AND ONLY UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN. TROPICAL
WAVE HAS MOVED WEST OF PR BUT WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. UPDATED PARTS OF THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. LATEST GFS BRINGS DRIER WEATHER FOR LOCAL AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH PW VALUES PER GFS DOWN TO 1.7 FOR BOTH USVI
AND PUERTO RICO ALTHOUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WATERS PW
VALUES REMAIN HIGH. WOULD EXPECT NORMAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH LATE SATURDAY PW VALUES INCREASE AGAIN
MAINLY ACROSS THE USVI AND ON MONDAY ACROSS EAST PUERTO RICO.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 09/16Z. AFTER 09/16Z MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE WITH MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE TJMZ AND TJBQ IN TSRA. OVERNIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND MAINLY EASTERLY. AFT
09/12Z...SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FROM THE EAST.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 89 / 50 50 30 30
STT 78 89 80 89 / 50 40 20 20

[dixiebreeze]

Appreciate your updates Luis.

[cycloneye]

Appreciate your updates Luis.

Thank you. As the 18th comes closer for your granddaughter trip,it will become more clear,how the weather will be in the Virgin Islands,so visit this thread from next week for details.

[cycloneye]

Sat pic of the wave moving thru the Southern Caribbean that is causing plenty of rain there.

[cycloneye]

A flood warning for Barbados.

A FLOOD-WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

BARBADOS UNTIL 6:00A.M SATURDAY JULY 09, 2011

Issued: 5:00 P.M FRIDAY JULY 8TH, 2011

A tropical wave has been producing cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over the southern section of Barbados. However analysis indicates that these conditions will persist and gradually spread across the rest of the island throughout the night.

Due to the already saturated conditions, further flash flooding will occur. Residents in flood prone areas are advised to exercise the necessary precaution.


Hampden Lovell

Director (Ag)

http://www.brohavwx.com/

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
957 PM AST FRI JUL 8 2011

.UPDATE...MOST ACTIVITY DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET...WITH ONLY LIGHT
PASSING SHOWERS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SINCE A DRIER
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MADE SOME CHANGES TO SHORT TERM GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...INTMT PDS OF LOW LVL CLDS AND PASSING SHRA WILL CONT
ESPECIALLY EN ROUTE BTW PR AND THE NRN LEEWARDS. PREVAILING VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 09/12Z. AFT 09/16Z
LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL INCR CLOUD COVER LEADING TO AREAS OF
MVFR/PSBL IFR CONDS WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA/PSBL TSRA DVLPMNT...
ESPECIALLY VCNTY TJMZ AND TJBQ FM 09/16Z-09/22Z. MTN TOP OBSCR ALSO
PSBL OVR PARTS OF CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR. OVERNIGHT LCL SFC WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT BUT MAINLY FM EAST...INCRG AFT 09/12Z TO 10-15 KTS
FROM THE EAST WITH OCNL HIGHER WIND GUSTS. HIGHER WIND GUSTS ALSO
PSBL WITH PASSING SHRA ACTIVITY DURG OVERNIGHT HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather in general with only the usual afternoon showers will be the rule this weekend in Puerto Rico.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
442 AM AST SAT JUL 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE TIP OF THE ELONGATED LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL BRUSH BY THE ISLAND ON MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
SUPPLANT THAT LOW. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK TROUGHING ON
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. MODEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT PASSED THROUGH ON
FRIDAY...IS MOVING TOWARD CUBA FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ANOTHER WAVE
IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN WITH LITTLE EFFECT THIS
FAR NORTH. DRIER AIR FOLLOWS. THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE WEAKER AND
ARRIVES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE ATLANTIC...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION DEVELOPED IN THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO BUT IS ALSO MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN FROM FAJARDO TO LOIZA AND OVER
SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO...BUT AMOUNTS WERE QUITE LIGHT. MODELS ARE
SHOWING GENERALLY DRIER AIR TODAY WITH PULSES OF MOISTURE MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEY ALSO SHOW SOUTHEAST FLOW AT
LOWER LEVELS CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO DURING
THE AFTERNOONS AND SOME OF THOSE MAY BRING HEAVY RAIN. INCREASED
DYNAMICS ON SUNDAY NIGHT SEEM TO FAVOR LINGERING CONVECTION OVER
PUERTO RICO AND SAINT CROIX THAT WILL ALSO ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST PART OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES. OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PATTERN OF STEADY EAST TO
EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS SEEMS ON ORDER FOR THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE OVER LCL ISLANDS THIS MORNING.
SCT SHRA/TSRA 60 NM NORTH OF ST. THOMAS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
ISOLATED THIS MORNING THEN SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER FAR WESTERN CORDILLERA AND NORTHWEST PR. TAF SITES
WILL STAY VFR EXCEPT IN A STRAY SHRA...OR A TSRA MOST LIKELY AT
TJMZ/TJBQ IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE E TO SE 25 KNOTS OR LESS BLO 20
KFT.


&&

.MARINE...NOW THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS PASSED GUSTY WINDS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND WIND VELOCITIES AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED. WINDS OF 22 KNOTS OR SEAS OF 7 FEET ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...SAINT CROIX HAD A RECORD RAINFALL SET YESTERDAY WHEN
0.88 INCHES FELL OVER FREDERIKSTED YESTERDAY. IN FACT...WITH 3.92
INCHES...THIS HAS BEEN THE WETTEST START TO JULY FOR THEM SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN THE EARLY 19 50S. IT HAS ALSO BEEN THE WETTEST 31
DAYS SINCE THAT SAME TIME. 10.66 INCHES HAVE FALLEN AT THE AIRPORT
IN SAINT CROIX FROM JUNE 7 TO NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 77 / 20 20 20 30
STT 89 79 89 79 / 20 20 20 50

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
201 PM AST SAT JUL 9 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 300 PM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO

MOCA...AGUADILLA...AGUADA...MAYAGUEZ...RINCON AND ANASCO

AT 157 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A COUPLE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM LAS MARIAS NORTHWEST THROUGH AGUADA...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY AFFECT THESE AND
NEARBY MUNICIPALITIES THROUGH 300 PM AST.

$$



BCS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
322 PM AST SAT JUL 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN BE REPLACED BY WEAK TROUGHING FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS...TUTT AXIS WILL BE
RE-ALIGNING ONCE AGAIN TO BECOME LOCATED JUST WEST THROUGH NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR LATER SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...AREAS OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND AFOREMENTIONED RE-ALIGNING
TUTT...SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME DIURNALLY AND
NOCTURNALLY INDUCED CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. DEEPER LAYERED TROUGHING FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD ACT TO CONTINUE THIS SIMILAR TREND...DESPITE
SOMEWHAT LESS OVERALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF
TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 09/22Z...IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 89 / 30 30 30 30
STT 79 88 79 89 / 20 20 50 40

[Macrocane]

And the NHC confirms what I was afraid of:

LOOKING AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY IN THE E CARIBBEAN
WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY MIDWEEK. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY MIDWEEK.
IN ADDITION...THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BECOME CONSIDERABLY
STRONGER BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH WESTERLY FLOW
REACHING UP TO 700 MB. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INCREASE IN
INTENSITY...A SURGE OF FRESH 20 KT SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL
COMMENCE BY MONDAY MORNING FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 100W
WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED OVER THAT SAME GENERAL AREA
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE MONSOON
TROUGH NORTHWARD AS THE MONSOON TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
MIDWEEK. WITH PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG SW MONSOONAL
FLOW...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-12 FT BY WED OVER THE E PART OF THE
AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING THAT THE STRONG SW
MONSOONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST...ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITH IT INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. IT MUST BE MENTIONED THAT
THERE IS ALWAYS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OR SOUTHERN MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Interesting discussion this morning regarding tropical waves.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST SUN JUL 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH CONTINUES NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. IT THEN SHIFTS SOUTH AND MOVES WEST OVER
THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK CUT OFF LOW CONTINUES ABOUT 1000 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE LEAVING
NORTH AFRICA IS NOTICEABLE AT MID LEVELS AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
MAINTAINS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. A BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING AND
RETURN MONDAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH A WEAK TROUGH. TROPICAL
WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND NEXT
SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL STRONG WAVES IN TRANSIT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
FOLLOWING THAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS PEPPERED THE ATLANTIC WITH A FEW BRUSHING
THE NORTH COASTAL PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS...WHICH LEFT .13 OF AN INCH AT THE
LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT BETWEEN 3 AND 4 AM AST AND CARRIED 24 MPH
GUSTS...WERE GENERATED BY A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS BAND WILL NOT QUITE CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
A WEAK TROUGH IN THE EASTERLIES WILL CARRY IT BACK ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE AREA TODAY AND MONDAY FOR
THOSE WHO HAD LITTLE OR NOTHING ON SATURDAY. THE GFS THEN BRINGS A
SHORT DRY SLOT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SEVERAL MORE ARE
SEEN LEAVING AFRICA DURING THE WEEK AND WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
WAVES ARE DEPICTED AS BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER NEXT WEEK
AND WOULD EXPECT THAT THIS WILL ALSO BE THE TREND FOR THE LOCAL
AREA FOR MID JULY. ALTHOUGH THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AT
UPPER LEVELS DIMINISHES ANOTHER ONE IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST
SOLUTION TO FORM IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC JUST EAST OF 60 WEST AND
MOVE OVER PUERTO RICO ON SUNDAY IN TIME TO CORRESPOND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THIS MORNING EXCEPT IN ISOLD SHRA
PR N COAST AND USVI. SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY PR CORDILLERA N TO ATL COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE OCNL MVFR
AND PSBL IFR FOR TJMZ/TJBQ AND MAYBE TJSJ...PLUS MTN OBSCURATIONS.
WINDS BLO 20 KFT TO BE EAST LESS THAN 20 KTS. CONVECTION WILL
SLACKEN TONIGHT THEN SIMILAR AFTERNOON ACTIVITY AGAIN MON.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL WAVES ON THURSDAY
AND SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 77 / 30 30 30 30
STT 89 78 89 79 / 20 50 40 50

[cycloneye]

And the NHC confirms what I was afraid of:

LOOKING AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY IN THE E CARIBBEAN
WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY MIDWEEK. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY MIDWEEK.
IN ADDITION...THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BECOME CONSIDERABLY
STRONGER BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH WESTERLY FLOW
REACHING UP TO 700 MB. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INCREASE IN
INTENSITY...A SURGE OF FRESH 20 KT SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL
COMMENCE BY MONDAY MORNING FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 100W
WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED OVER THAT SAME GENERAL AREA
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE MONSOON
TROUGH NORTHWARD AS THE MONSOON TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
MIDWEEK. WITH PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG SW MONSOONAL
FLOW...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-12 FT BY WED OVER THE E PART OF THE
AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING THAT THE STRONG SW
MONSOONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST...ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITH IT INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. IT MUST BE MENTIONED THAT
THERE IS ALWAYS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OR SOUTHERN MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

This is the 8 AM discussion about this. If this pans out,there would be a disaster in the making in Centralamerica,so let's continue to watch the progress of this in the next few days.

SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA BY WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CONSIDERABLY
STRONGER BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS...ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA GENERATING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN
MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. FOR
NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS
FOR CONSISTENCY ON THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO.

[Macrocane]

Yes cycloneye, it needs to be monitored closely and regardless of development, and if the GFS is right, it seems that we may have at least 7 days of heavy rains beggining on Tuesday night/Wednesday

[Macrocane]

I will keep you updated with preparations and impacts of the situation in the next few days, for now here are yesterday temps in the region all of them close to the average for this time of year:

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 27°C (81°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.7°C (69.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10.9°C (51.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.5°C (67.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.7°C (54.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.7°C (74.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.6°C (65.5°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.6°C (74.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.6°C (42.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.7°C (74.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.5°C (59.9°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.9°C (84.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26°C (79°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.4°C (72.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.3°C (84.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.3°C (70.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.4°C (93.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.1°C (84.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.2°C (91.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.1°C (59.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.0°C (91.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.9°C (73.2°F)

[cycloneye]

Macrocane,this is the 16:05 UTC discussion for the EPAC and really it looks omminous for you in terms of rainfall.

LOOKING AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND
EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY MIDWEEK.
THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BECOME CONSIDERABLY STRONGER MON THROUGH
WED. A SURGE OF SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY MONDAY
MORNING FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 100W WITH FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG SW
MONSOONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 10-12 FT BY MON NIGHT
AND UP TO 13 FT BY TUE NIGHT OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA. MARINE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS TO 30 KT SOUTH OF COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA BY THU. PERSISTENT STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL
BRING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN MAY ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

[Macrocane]

Yeah kind of worrying The SNET and other official agencies in the region have not mentioned this scenario yet but I think that today or tomorrow they will begin with the special reports and possible alerts. I will also post info in my blog as I think I could help some people to get preparations.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
334 PM AST SUN JUL 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN BE REPLACED BY WEAK
TROUGHING FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...TUTT AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO RE-ALIGN AND BECOME LOCATED
JUST WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING FOR MONDAY...AREAS
OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS AND AFOREMENTIONED RE-ALIGNING TUTT...SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME DIURNALLY AND NOCTURNALLY INDUCED
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DEEPER
LAYERED TROUGHING FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SHOULD ACT TO CONTINUE THIS SIMILAR TREND...WITH MUCH BETTER
MOISTURE NOW BEING INDICATED FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY WEDNESDAY ALSO. THIS WILL THEN BE
FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH THE PASSING TROPICAL WAVE. THUS...EXPECT A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
PATTERN COMING UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST...
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING AT LEAST IN THE
VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 10/22Z...IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 77 89 / 30 30 30 30
STT 78 89 78 88 / 40 40 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1015 PM AST SUN JUL 10 2011

.UPDATE...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE SURROUNDING WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IS ENHANCING THESE TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. ALTHOUGH THESE
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...A FEW OF THEM
WILL DRIFT OVER INTO LEEWARD SECTIONS. IN GENERAL...THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION. ZFP WAS UPDATED ONLY
FOR TIME REFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...SIMILAR PATTERN TO CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 11/12Z...EVEN WITH VCSH AT NUMEROUS
LOCATIONS. BY AFTN 11/16Z...CONVECTIVE SHWRS WILL LEAD TO MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE OVER
THE TJMZ AND TJBQ IN POSSIBLE TSRA. OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND MAINLY EASTERLY.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A steady increase in the rain is expected in the Eastern Caribbean this week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
351 AM AST MON JUL 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND THEN BE REPLACED BY WEAK TROUGHING FOR
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS...TUTT
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO RE-ALIGN AND BECOME LOCATED JUST WEST
THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY TO VARIABLE CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN FACT...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...THIS MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...TUTT...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN A FAVORABLE POSITION...JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO
TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE
REGION. A TROPICAL WAVE... ALONG 50 WEST WILL REACH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE ABOVE 2.0
INCHES LATE TONIGHT TROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
PATTERN COMING UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT LOCAL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING EXCEPT IN ISOLATED SHRA ACROSS NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO
AS WELL ACROSS THE USVI. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CORDILLERA CENTRAL TO
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE OCCASIONAL MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMZ/TJBQ AND MAYBE TJSJ...PLUS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 78 / 30 30 30 10
STT 89 78 88 80 / 40 50 50 10

[cycloneye]

For those Caribbean friends who live in the Windward Islands,be aware for this wave.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT EXPECTED...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI