ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[Aric Dunn]

Question: if it develops as the SHIPs indicates, would that mean more west or more poleward (north)?

every model i have looked at lifts out the low near the bahamas and builds in a ridge quite quickly and the models have had this solution for the last 2 days. considering the system over the arklatex area is slowly moving wnw to nw and a ridge is wedged it along the east coast. Im not surprised at the solutions..

[gatorcane]

Shear tendency shows shear is decreasing along the path out ahead of Fred . We just may have a player here.

Really not surprising though. Afterall, we are in mid September still although its easy to forget we are just a few days from the climatological peak of the season since the tropical Atlantic basin has looked more like December the past couple of weeks.

[Blown Away]

It seems we finally have a decent ridge, Fred is moving at a nice clip. If Fred can maintain for the next day or so he will move out of this dry air. OMG, we have ridging and decreasing shear, can you believe it!!!

[bahamaswx]

Waiting for the next big blowup in convection.

[Blown Away]

[Aric Dunn]

figured i would post this..

convection all on the North side but its its not removed from the center is partially covering it... and the circulation is still strong with plenty of low level banding..



and not sure how reliable these are these days but have heard them mentioned by the nhc from time to time and right now its seems to of with some barbs outside the convection to base off of...

[gatorcane]

The shortwave IR is the best alternative for Visible loops at night.

I see convection on the NNE to NE side of the low and a due W movement of the center:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-ir2.html

[Aric Dunn]

12z Euro 120 hours.... very strong ridge... dont see any north turn ...

[Macrocane]

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I have rarely seen a remnant low suvive those very unfavorable conditions for such a long time, Fred is a fighter I give him a medium chance of redeveloping, the intensity and the track forecast are very uncertain at the moment, it depends on how much the conditions will improve, how strong the ridge will build and if there will be another trough at the right time to recurve him. Let's wait for tomorrow to see how good or bad Fred looks and I think we will have a clearer scenario.

[Emmett_Brown]

We are in a blocking pattern right now over the CONUS, and it has been stubborn to break down. Therefore, the trough it is forecasting might end up being later that currently forecast. GFS might be too eager to break down the blocking.

[brunota2003]

Remember Kyle in 2002? Kyle part Dos

[HurricaneBelle]

He's gone from Fred Flintstone to Drop Dead Fred to now, Freddy Krueger - back from the dead and starting to look scary.

[Macrocane]

He's gone from Fred Flintstone to Drop Dead Fred to now, Freddy Krueger - back from the dead and starting to look scary.

That's a scary analogy :S

[wxman57]

The center is still around 20N, so that puts the heavier convection about 125-150 miles to the NE of the center. The center is still just to the east (almost under) an upper-level low. That's why the convection is off to the NE of the center. Probably a temporary flare-up, but something to keep an eye on.

[AdamFirst]

He's gone from Fred Flintstone to Drop Dead Fred to now, Freddy Krueger - back from the dead and starting to look scary.

Interesting way to put it

[Aric Dunn]

The center is still around 20N, so that puts the heavier convection about 125-150 miles to the NE of the center. The center is still just to the east (almost under) an upper-level low. That's why the convection is off to the NE of the center. Probably a temporary flare-up, but something to keep an eye on.

while i agree with it being displaced 125 miles is quite a bit to far.. microwave data clearly has the center on the southern edge partially covering the northern part of center.. convection extends from 10 out to about 125 miles from the center but there is not a gap that large..

[Derek Ortt]

the center has lasted so long because it was very strong. Friction is not that efficient of destroying vorticity

Now, if this large area of convection collapses, say good night once and for all to Fred. That is because there would be strong surface divergence, which would reduce the vorticity and likely open Fred into a wave

[ozonepete]

The center is still around 20N, so that puts the heavier convection about 125-150 miles to the NE of the center. The center is still just to the east (almost under) an upper-level low. That's why the convection is off to the NE of the center. Probably a temporary flare-up, but something to keep an eye on.

while i agree with it being displaced 125 miles is quite a bit to far.. microwave data clearly has the center on the southern edge partially covering the northern part of center.. convection extends from 10 out to about 125 miles from the center but there is not a gap that large..

Got to agree with you. You're using the microwave satellite to make a good estimate of what's going on. I think you have a good bead on it...

[Ivanhater]

The center is still around 20N, so that puts the heavier convection about 125-150 miles to the NE of the center. The center is still just to the east (almost under) an upper-level low. That's why the convection is off to the NE of the center. Probably a temporary flare-up, but something to keep an eye on.

Well I hope those people on this bored that you said there was NO WAY this is heading for the U.S. did not listen to you then and are now keeping an eye on it

[ozonepete]

the center has lasted so long because it was very strong. Friction is not that efficient of destroying vorticity

Now, if this large area of convection collapses, say good night once and for all to Fred. That is because there would be strong surface divergence, which would reduce the vorticity and likely open Fred into a wave

but there's absolutely nothing to indicate that right now. In fact, with an increasing area of convection and some strong outflow developing to the northeast to vent the thunderstorm outflow at upper levels, the chances for a convective collapse seem really small.