ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Trying to see?

[HURAKAN]

nice pic

[Hugo1989]

I do not think this walk above the 14.6N

[ColinDelia]

Of course this could aid in intensification as well.

Yeah, here is an interesting paper I read recently

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10. ... -0493(2001)129%3C2570:ACSOTI%3E2.0.CO;2

"Tropical cyclones over warm water and away from
land that interact with a trough were found to be more
likely to intensify than weaken: 78% of superposition
and 61% of distant interaction cases deepened while
undergoing a trough interaction. In the favorable superposition
composite, a narrow upper-level PV maximum
extending equatorward from the poleward PV reservoir
approached the tropical cyclone center."

[StormClouds63]

After Bonnie and Colin, finally something really worth looking at. No one should be affected by the system, so this is one just to watch and enjoy. Looks like an eye may be trying to form. Category 2-3 seems likely.

[Cyclone1]

With such an impressive appearance, I wouldn't be surprised if it were upgraded to our second hurricane tonight. I would be kinda surprised it it weren't, actually.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Trying to see?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc10/A ... .100pc.jpg

Wont be long now till she blows, I see the fist look.

[KWT]

Probably just a bit too soon to be making a blanket statement like that KWT.

Ah you know I waste no time in saying what I think, no doubts one day thats going to backfire on me in a huge way but so be it!

Looking very good now, looks like an eye is trying to get going though the western side looks a little on the weak side. Looks abit like Hurricane Karen did in 07 at its peak.

[CrazyC83]

I'd say it is up to 60 kt now with the look and eye trying to come out.

[supercane]

I do not think this walk above the 14.6N

It's already there practically and still moving WNW.

[wxman57]

Here's a McIDAS shot I just took. I modified the enhancement curve to show the center better. Partial eyewall. Around 14.9N, though parallax makes it look closer to 15N:

[KWT]

I'd say it is up to 60 kt now with the look and eye trying to come out.

Yeah I'd agree its strengthening nicely now, I don't think its going to take till 96-120hrs to become a category-2 unless shear increases in the next 24-36hrs and halts the current strengthening trend.

Probably a hurricane later today.

[GCANE]

Convection is firing much closer to the ADT Bullseye (LLC).

Core temp fluctuated quite a bite last night but now seems to be recovering.

Anti-cyclone now appears to be centered much closer to the LLC than 24 hrs ago.

This indicates IMHO an increasing updraft and strengthening system.

[KWT]

Nice post Gcane and I agree conditions are getting better for this to strengthen at a quicker rate. I suspect in 24hrs time we will be looking at a 85-90kts hurricane and I still think this one has every chance of getting to major hurricane status and perhaps even slightly higher then that but who knows, all depends on how the inner core shapes up.

[GCANE]

Thanks KWT.

One thing I just noticed as well.

The cell is also producing high rain rates which helps with mid/upper level latent heating.

This will help the core recover and heat back up.

[cycloneye]

Remains as tropical storm at 11 AM Advisory=55kts.

From discussion.

THERE
IS NOW A 1 IN 4 CHANCE...HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...THAT DANIELLE
COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS BASED ON
HISTORICAL NHC INTENSITY ERRORS.

[CrazyC83]

I think once it clears the 20 kt of shear it is under still, that Danielle will start RI'ing...it could be a major hurricane tomorrow, perhaps a Category 4.

[KWT]

I think 1 in 4 is way too low chances of this becoming a major hurricane to be honest...I'd not be surprised to see it get there within 48-72hrs actually though obviously if the shear does increase then that would make that much more unlikely.

We will see!

[AdamFirst]

You know the nhc is always conservative with their intensity estimates. If it keeps on rolling, this is a hurricane at 11 PM at the latest.

[wxman57]

That 1 in 4 chance of a major hurricane is based solely on past NHC intensity forecast error. It does not take into account anything that's happening now with the storm, or any forecasts of future intensity. Actual chances may be a little higher than 1 in 4.