ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Highteeld]

2 recurves ots from this suite

[MetroMike]

2 recurves ots from this suite

https://i.imgur.com/Sc3Qa4k.png

Outliers, would not be concerned with those.

[Evil Jeremy]

The 18z ICON has Dorian moving due west as a strengthening hurricane through the Northwestern Bahamas with a landfall in S.Fla in 120 hours

And once again, it has shifted North relative to it's prior runs. It keeps making that due-West turn on a dime after around 70 hours.

[SunnyThoughts]

The 18z ICON has Dorian moving due west as a strengthening hurricane through the Northwestern Bahamas with a landfall in S.Fla in 120 hours

Large area of low pressure in the central gulf at that time...how will that affect Dorian I wonder?

[SFLcane]

The 18z ICON has Dorian moving due west as a strengthening hurricane through the Northwestern Bahamas with a landfall in S.Fla in 120 hours

I think I know of similar storm who took a track pretty close to that in 92.

[stormlover2013]

The 18z ICON has Dorian moving due west as a strengthening hurricane through the Northwestern Bahamas with a landfall in S.Fla in 120 hours

Large area of low pressure in the central gulf at that time...how will that affect Dorian I wonder?

Look how much larger it’s than Dorian

[LarryWx]

It looks like the 18Z GFS may come in further north because it is further northeast at hour 54. The northward trend seems to be holding. I personally don't like seeing this.

[blp]

It looks like the 18Z GFS may come in further north because it is further northeast at hour 54. The northward trend seems to be holding. I personally don't like seeing this.

And stronger. Very little disruption this time as it goes clean over PR that is a first. I have a feeling this run will be much stronger at the end.

[Bocadude85]

18z GFS through 48hrs, up and over Puerto Rico and north of Hispaniola, I’m thinking this run is going to be slightly different then the 12z, IE stronger and a different landfall location in Florida.

[beachman80]

The 18z ICON has Dorian moving due west as a strengthening hurricane through the Northwestern Bahamas with a landfall in S.Fla in 120 hours

Large area of low pressure in the central gulf at that time...how will that affect Dorian I wonder?

If there, it would turn the system north and likely shear it.

[Highteeld]

18z Legacy GFS tries to RI after PR

[Steve]

The 18z ICON has Dorian moving due west as a strengthening hurricane through the Northwestern Bahamas with a landfall in S.Fla in 120 hours

And once again, it has shifted North relative to it's prior runs. It keeps making that due-West turn on a dime after around 70 hours.

I think it’s would be stronger on that track than 975, but it is getting stronger to the coast. It’s also not a typical track, but you have to respect all models building in high pressure over top. I haven’t been following Dorian much with 90L, but you’d have to think if the track does go farther north and threaten South Carolina or North Carolina it would probably be a major. I hope it doesn’t verify for SEFL or farther up the coast

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z GFS Legacy also coming in significantly stronger.

[sma10]

The 18z ICON has Dorian moving due west as a strengthening hurricane through the Northwestern Bahamas with a landfall in S.Fla in 120 hours

ICON and Uk have been in the same basic camp every run for the past couple days: furthest East initially, furthest West down the line.

[Kazmit]

18z GFS stronger this run and further north.

[beachman80]

So with these further north runs, I’m guessing the HP won’t be there?

[Highteeld]

Both the FV3 and Legacy GFS are considerably stronger.

[Blown Away]

18z may approach Major status on this run.

[BensonTCwatcher]

18z GFS stronger this run and further north.

'

Yup, Cant tell how many times I have seen this- Models shift right and due to eh shape of the coast line puts it into SC/NC- Although in recent years models and especially NHC have done a great job inside 5 days- Just one model run, but I'm not liking where this is going at the moment

[Highteeld]

Nothing to sneeze at here