ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[plasticup]

Pressure continuing to fall, down to 968.5 extrapolated

What does a stronger storm mean for the path?

[Buck]

Pressure continuing to fall, down to 968.5 extrapolated

That's pretty low. I imagine winds will ramp up pretty quickly overnight in response.

[Kingarabian]

Another Atlantic system, another case of the classic pressure/wind relationship being challenged.

[1900hurricane]

I'm somewhat curios as to what radar imagery or a good microwave pass would show with the core. Both the flight level winds and SFMR data show two humps of local velocity maximums in the eyewall. The previous VDM mentioned an open elliptical eyewall with 24 and 36 nm axes, so I wonder if there are two partial eyewalls in there messing with the core pressure gradient.

[Hurricaneman]

Probably undergoing an ERC

[wx98]

Pressure continuing to fall, down to 968.5 extrapolated

What does a stronger storm mean for the path?

I may be wrong but I believe a stronger storm would feel the pull off to the northeast and not meander back toward North America. The predominant steering is going to be forcing it away from all land except Bermuda anyway.

[wx98]

Pressure continuing to fall, down to 968.5 extrapolated

That's pretty low. I imagine winds will ramp up pretty quickly overnight in response.

A couple have mentioned that it may be undergoing an EWRC. If it ends up like some hurricanes and stays in one perpetually (I think Florence did that, at least somewhat), the winds may not get much stronger than they are now. But as of now NHC calls for a Cat 3...

[Kazmit]

It has definitely taken on a more eastward heading the last couple of hours.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=60&ts=3&st=0&et=0&speed=50&motion=loop&map=1&lat=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_13&x=1005&y=884

[typhoonty]

Recon supports 60 kts, generously 65 kts. While satellite easily supports category 2 status if not stronger. I think the huge discrepancy is likely a sign of an ongoing E(W)RC. Winds should catch up to the mid 960's pressure by tomorrow morning and we should see a Cat 2.

Definitely not a fun week to be in Bermuda. Stay safe to all.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Recon supports 60 kts, generously 65 kts. While satellite easily supports category 2 status if not stronger. I think the huge discrepancy is likely a sign of an ongoing E(W)RC. Winds should catch up to the mid 960's pressure by tomorrow morning and we should see a Cat 2.

Definitely not a fun week to be in Bermuda. Stay safe to all.

You're not going to get a well defined eye with a 60 knot TS.

[Kazmit]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if an EWRC occurs it could actually be worse for Bermuda because the wind-field will expand, making it more likely that the core with hurricane-force winds will pass over.

[wx98]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if an EWRC occurs it could actually be worse for Bermuda because the wind-field will expand, making it more likely that the core with hurricane-force winds will pass over.

I would agree with that

[typhoonty]

Recon supports 60 kts, generously 65 kts. While satellite easily supports category 2 status if not stronger. I think the huge discrepancy is likely a sign of an ongoing E(W)RC. Winds should catch up to the mid 960's pressure by tomorrow morning and we should see a Cat 2.

Definitely not a fun week to be in Bermuda. Stay safe to all.

You're not going to get a well defined eye with a 60 knot TS.

I know, I'm guessing it's broken. Everything. The pressure is rapidly deepening, even extratopical cyclones produce hurricane force winds at that pressure. I think regardless it will intensify to a cat 2 (at least) by tomorrow morning.

[1900hurricane]

Looks about 966 mb now.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

My guess is dry air intrusion. We saw this with Ike, Alex, et cetera.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1173749346564804609

[CrazyC83]

It looks to have a huge RMW...something like 60 nautical miles?

A Hurricane Warning will probably be needed for Bermuda given the large size and timing.

[Tailspin]

 https://twitter.com/i/status/1173750811463208962

[wx98]

My guess is dry air intrusion. We saw this with Ike, Alex, et cetera.

I was looking at an IR loop earlier and had the same thought. It did/does look like some dry air got into it.

[CrazyC83]

I'd probably put it at 70 kt right now, despite the pressure coming down and continuing to. Reminds me a lot of Isaac 2012 and Ike 2008.