ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[tiger_deF]

Hello Hurricane Marco

Either this or next pass should bring an upgrade to cat 1, pressure is already there and winds will mix down eventually

[GCANE]

Massive Theta-E Ridge building in the GoM.
TC's that track into one of these usually rapidly intensify one or two notches.
That is, Cat 1 goes to Cat 2 or 3.

MCS over TX continues to expand and plow to the coast.
Expecting the Rossby wave to weaken and pull back to the new position shown in about 24 hrs.

[aspen]

SFMR jumped up to 55 kt in that hot tower. However, recon has only sampled a tiny portion of the NE quadrant so far.

Tiny cyclones like these can ramp up rapidly. We may be seeing this with Marco this morning.

We definitely are. Looks like the pressure has dropped a few mbar since last pass, and they’re finding 50-55 kt SFMR and 60-70 kt FL winds.

[Steve]

Or the ridge that is "supposed" to move to the west moves slower and Marco gets pulled to the north or north east toward La.

It’s not just supposed to. It has to happen. Trough isn’t static in timeframe and will wash, retrograde and weaken. Only thing is timing. So yeah, lots of the 00z EPS members liked that scenario. Almost all the rest and I think EC operational move it to Texas.

Check it animated at 500
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2200&fh=12

Yeah, what I meant was more of a when not if situation with regard to the ridge. Like you said, I think it is a matter of timing and
maybe some interaction with Laura.

100.

[tropicwatch]

Might be reformation to the north. HH making a north turn before getting to last center position and reporting 996.4mb.
Or it could be just due north movement.

[MississippiWx]

Might be reformation to the north. HH making a north turn before getting to last center position and reporting 996.4mb.

This.

This explains why the winds were so light earlier on the west side. Ummm rapid intensification?

[northjaxpro]

Might be reformation to the north. HH making a north turn before getting to last center position and reporting 996.4mb.

This.

This explains why the winds were so light earlier on the west side. Ummm rapid intensification?

I think so, plus it is moving due north imo.

[chris_fit]

Marco keeps missing his (short term) forecast points to the N and E - Like every single one pretty much. Crazy!

[tropicwatch]

Leaning more towards a reformation, it is approximately 26 miles away from its last reported position.

[xironman]

The gulfstream mission should give good data to the models for the timing of the ridge.

[GCANE]

Radial / Gravity Waves on the top layer of the CDO from a continuous firing hot tower.
100% sure RI is underway.
Somebody needs to wake up Aric.

[Jr0d]

It appears RI is happening.

Very lucky that recon is out there while it is happening.

[Steve]

Leaning more towards a reformation, it is approximately 26 miles away from its last reported position.

I admit I haven’t looked at vort maps yet. But you’d have to think the main energy is in the mid-levels with the low level center wanting to be in the sw portion of the blob but getting sucked back up to the north and east.

[MississippiWx]

Marco has a beautiful appearance on satellite imagery now. Makes you wonder if the lid is about to come off.

[northjaxpro]

It appears RI is happening.

Very lucky that recon is out there while it is happening.

Yes, thankfully we have Recon.out there while it is intensifyng!!

[gfsperpendicular]

If Marco is going more NE does that mean the ridge is weaker than we expected?

[MGC]

Microcane Marco...MGC

[GCANE]

They flew around the southern end of the hot tower.
No way they were going to fly thru it.
50+ knot south winds at 925mb - that is a massive infeed into the tower.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1297158359062327296

[Kazmit]

Wow. ~70kt flight level winds. That escalated quickly.