ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stormlover70]

I guess Debby will be taking these cyclonic loops as it heads north towards the Big Bend area of FL. What I am concerned about is that we usually see them slow down and change of course ahead of schedule as the steering collapses as I have family that live right on the coast of Pasco County, Zone A. Will be a long 18-24 hrs ahead.

https://i.imgur.com/pref3mQ.gif

i live in pasco, its drizzling

New Port Richey here

[Craters]

The one thing that particularly concerns me about this storm is how it's expected to move extremely slowly over the Panhandle and Georgia. This could be quite the flooding event should that pan out.

ICON has a thin strip of the heaviest rain across NE Fl and then coastal SC, NC, Long Island and eastern Massachusetts (apparently a front drops enough rain to get amplified by Debby.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0412&fh=45

Once GFS is done we will know if it still has it screwing around or if it comes up.

Also check out the QPF. They must have had to add that shade of pink for 20+ inches for southern South Carolina.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1722786336

Hah! I thought the same thing about that pink, too, Steve, but I looked at a screenshot I had from 2020, and it was there then, too.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NWSCharlestonSC/status/1820063027980296279

[Craters]

Interesting views from Tampa radar. LLLC and MLC split?
https://imgur.com/kyPRkb9

It does look like the vertical structure is still tilted based on recon data. The LLC might be relocating to the north east, under the MLC:

https://i.imgur.com/RX612o0.png

Having just come through Beryl, I gotta say that every little thing that slows down intensification helps if you're sitting in front of your computer, monitoring Storm2K et al., and waiting until the power goes out. Tilted structures, dry air, GCANE running out of cigars and going to sleep, weak shear, etc. They all count.

[Nimbus]

Storm Surge in Ft Myers.

 https://x.com/MattDevittWX/status/1820147938326139275

Crystal Beach will see high tide in the next couple hours but they are used to it.

[Craters]

I’m not sure why yesterday’s forecast tracks put landfall in the late morning/early afternoon, because even then, models were converging on a Monday morning landfall.

Some models were showing a landfall around noon tomorrow.

I remember some were saying Debby was already supposed to be inland by today. This was just two days ago too.

That's what can happen when the track is so close to being parallel to the coast. One little burp to one side or the other means relief for some and scrambling for others.

[derpbynature]

Some power outages here in western Marion County already. Couple of traffic lights out. Mostly rain with some breezes so far. I'm about 25-30 miles from the west coast.

[Craters]

In the spirit of every litte thing helping, those outflow boundaries from the NW feeder band are huge.

[Jr0d]

It is a bit unsettling to see all the tornado warnings pop up despite it being expected for a landfilling system. Unfortunately that will be the most significant impact as the flooding is almost certainly going to be catastrophic in some areas.

The wind has finally calm down here in the lower Keys, the storm warning was dropped this morning, but I did find it amusing that shortly after the warning was dropped we got a heavy feeder band that prompted a severe thunderstorm warning, fortunately no tornado with it.

[DunedinDave]

Here in Tampa area. Just a light drizzle and a little breeze. Not gonna lie…expected more out of this. Surprised it hasn’t been too bad. Still may get some bands later on but so far (crossing fingers) it appears we are coming out unscathed.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely starting to see an eye develop on radar.

[LandoWill]

Here in Tampa area. Just a light drizzle and a little breeze. Not gonna lie…expected more out of this. Surprised it hasn’t been too bad. Still may get some bands later on but so far (crossing fingers) it appears we are coming out unscathed.

Same, i do see people a little concerned about the radar loops, seems like they think it's going more north north east or barely moving at all. Especially on X debby hashtag. Here in land o lakes, not raining lol

[ConvergenceZone]

 https://x.com/NWSCharlestonSC/status/1820063027980296279

When I look at the forecasted tracking map I'm not seeing a stall in the SC area like they mentioned in that discussion, but maybe the NHC just hasn't updated the maps yet?

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/DrJeffMasters/status/1820179855192764543

[Frank P]

Looking at the OmegaRadar she sure looks to be wobbling off to the NE to me

[caneman]

Here in Tampa area. Just a light drizzle and a little breeze. Not gonna lie…expected more out of this. Surprised it hasn’t been too bad. Still may get some bands later on but so far (crossing fingers) it appears we are coming out unscathed.

Pinellas near the beaches is getting hammered with sheets of rain for hours now! Continous training of bands

[caneman]

Looking at the OmegaRadar she sure looks to be wobbling off to the NE to me

Definitely appears to be moving NE on radar by a decent distance!

[Frank P]

Looking at the OmegaRadar she sure looks to be wobbling off to the NE to me

Definitely appears to be moving NE on radar by a decent distance!

[skillz305]

Am I tripping or is it clearly wobbling/moving NE?

[jlauderdal]

SEFL looking at more activity, surface heating helped the cause today.