ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

I'll take over observations if you wish.

[tolakram]

yes, thanks

[tolakram]

[CronkPSU]

peaked...or is still rising?

[AdamFirst]

260
URNT15 KNHC 280135
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 33 20110828
012530 3652N 07450W 6957 02862 9692 +105 //// 186070 070 049 002 01
012600 3652N 07452W 6959 02850 9685 +105 //// 187069 070 050 003 01
012630 3652N 07454W 6958 02847 9679 +105 //// 189068 068 051 004 01
012700 3652N 07456W 6953 02851 9673 +105 //// 189067 068 050 003 01
012730 3652N 07458W 6960 02832 9665 +107 //// 190066 066 050 002 01
012800 3652N 07500W 6957 02832 9654 +110 //// 192063 064 049 003 01
012830 3652N 07502W 6958 02826 9649 +110 //// 192064 064 048 001 01
012900 3652N 07504W 6957 02819 9640 +111 //// 195062 062 047 001 01
012930 3652N 07506W 6958 02809 9633 +112 //// 198060 061 048 003 01
013000 3652N 07508W 6958 02804 9623 +114 //// 201059 060 050 002 01
013030 3652N 07510W 6957 02799 9617 +114 //// 204059 060 050 001 05
013100 3652N 07512W 6955 02795 9604 +116 //// 207057 059 050 002 01
013130 3652N 07514W 6958 02782 9593 +120 //// 210055 055 049 002 01
013200 3653N 07516W 6957 02776 9583 +120 //// 215055 055 048 002 01
013230 3653N 07518W 6956 02768 9575 +123 +121 219053 054 046 000 03
013300 3654N 07519W 6959 02756 9559 +124 +123 221049 050 044 002 00
013330 3655N 07521W 6957 02751 9549 +124 +124 226040 044 043 001 00
013400 3655N 07523W 6962 02743 9543 +125 +125 234032 034 042 001 03
013430 3657N 07525W 6957 02735 9533 +129 +125 236023 026 032 004 00
013500 3658N 07526W 6961 02733 9531 +130 +126 246015 017 023 001 03
$$
;

[tolakram]

I'm falling asleep, will need someone to take over graphics is possible.

[wx247]

Things are going downhill in a hurry across the Delmarva region tonight.

I hope residents in NYC are paying close attention to this information coming out of VA, MD, and DE this evening.

[itglobalsecure]

43 MPH steady with higher gusts. Just above Denton MD near the DE border. And a new leak in the one small piece of roof we didn't replace over a doorway to a deck. Sending water into the kitchen ceiling. If this is all we get, I guess we're lucky. But the night is young. Getting scary for me, having never seen winds like this before.
Cheryl

[KBBOCA]

I haven't read this thread for awhile, I was out all day, so forgive me if someone has already posted this info, but eegaads:

Using Storm Carib's closest point of approach, Irene is due to make a dead hit (0.7 miles) on Atlantic City & New York City (8.4 miles).

I know this isn't news... this has been pretty much the forecast track for days, but to see this "worst case scenario" track actually verifying, and Irene basically planning on trashing every city from the Delmarva on up is just astounding.

I grew up in North Jersey and have 4 of my closest friends in the bullseye of this storm (Haddonfield, Hoboken, Manhattan, and Long Island - all have taken good precautions and are following the storm closely). I was supposed to be in Hoboken myself this weekend to visit one of these friends but stayed away due to surge risk. I'm currently traveling in upstate NY, north of Albany. We had an INCREDIBLE sunset tonight thanks to Irene. Just stunning color & clouds. Wish I could post pix, but don't have my USB cable to upload pix from my camera.

Stay safe all in NJ & NY and beyond, you are in the prayers of MANY thousands of people tonight.

[AdamFirst]

URNT15 KNHC 280145
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 34 20110828
013530 3659N 07527W 6955 02738 9534 +130 +126 255008 012 013 002 03
013600 3701N 07528W 6957 02735 9533 +129 +126 002001 004 020 002 03
013630 3703N 07528W 6959 02739 9544 +123 //// 069009 011 024 004 05
013700 3704N 07529W 6955 02751 9557 +118 //// 085016 019 032 005 05
013730 3706N 07528W 6957 02752 9562 +117 //// 091023 025 033 008 01
013800 3708N 07528W 6958 02758 9576 +106 //// 099028 030 035 010 01
013830 3710N 07528W 6957 02770 9596 +099 //// 104033 034 034 013 01
013900 3711N 07527W 6955 02777 9603 +100 //// 106038 040 040 008 01
013930 3713N 07527W 6955 02790 //// +094 //// 110041 043 040 009 01
014000 3715N 07527W 6953 02797 //// +090 //// 110045 046 046 018 01
014030 3717N 07527W 6962 02796 //// +091 //// 109045 046 045 014 01
014100 3719N 07526W 6958 02809 //// +089 //// 113045 045 /// /// 05
014130 3720N 07525W 6954 02815 //// +084 //// 117045 045 042 017 01
014200 3721N 07524W 6959 02817 //// +084 //// 122046 048 034 022 01
014230 3723N 07523W 6957 02824 //// +085 //// 124053 055 043 011 05
014300 3724N 07522W 6961 02824 //// +099 //// 124055 056 045 009 01
014330 3726N 07521W 6957 02835 //// +096 //// 126055 056 045 007 01
014400 3728N 07520W 6959 02837 //// +089 //// 127056 056 045 007 01
014430 3729N 07519W 6958 02845 //// +086 //// 127056 056 045 006 01
014500 3731N 07519W 6957 02854 //// +100 //// 127057 057 046 005 01


_____________________



225
URNT12 KNHC 280145
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 28/01:36:00Z
B. 37 deg 01 min N
075 deg 28 min W
C. 700 mb 2686 m
D. 64 kt
E. 095 deg 103 nm
F. 179 deg 87 kt
G. 095 deg 89 nm
H. 955 mb
I. 9 C / 3062 m
J. 13 C / 3057 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 3409A IRENE OB 14
MAX FL WIND 87 KT E QUAD 01:07:10Z
;

[MBryant]

What worries me most from the 5 pm discussion is that Brown/Franklin mentioned that NY should have a storm near or at hurricane-force strength--so let's estimate that at 70 mph winds.

Then, they mentioned that the winds increase quickly above the surface. So the skyscrapers of NYC will be experiencing winds 20-30% higher than on the surface. That's 85-90 mph winds. Yikes.

Houston took slightly higher winds and there was glass everywhere downtown, especially in the higher windows. But, we don't have close to the number of high-rises that they do in the NE.

I wouldn't want to be there tomorrow morning (or even tonight).

I was in West Houston for Ike and it was bad enough there. I remember what downtown looked like... Can't imagine what NYC will look like after this blows through.

I was in Houston (Working for HL&P) when Alecia hit. The glass was broken downtown at a height of about 15 stories primarily due to the pea gravel which was picked up off roofs which became missiles in the wind. It was a common practice then for flat roof structures. Building codes changed after that.

[Dave]

I'm falling asleep, will need someone to take over graphics is possible.

I'm on and ready to go on graphics..go get some rest Mark.

[AdamFirst]

Where can I get the decoded dropsonde messages?

[Comradez]

Water temperatures are warm enough all the way up to NYC to support a subtropical system. I don't see Irene weakening hardly at all before NYC partly for that reason as well (in addition to the jet evacuating huge amounts of outflow on the north side).

Remember, the key to convection is having a favorable lapse rate in a vertical column of atmosphere. That means, warm temperatures at the surface and cold temperatures aloft (so that the cold air aloft wants to fall and the warm air below wants to rise, creating convection and the release of latent heat as the warm moist air from the surface rises, cools, and is forced to relinquish its moisture, thus releasing heat and driving it higher until it cools, releases more latent heat from condensation, heats up again, rises some more, and so on...

So it doesn't matter if the surface is 26C and the temperature aloft is -50C, or if the surface is 22C and the temperature aloft is -55C...you're going to get convection in either case. (It's just that it's usually easier to raise the surface temperature through sunlight heating ocean water to 26C+ than it is to get a perfect upper air environment that provides for abnormally cold conditions aloft).

With that jet evacuating all that air aloft, that cools the air aloft (expanding air cools), keeping the lapse rate favorable for convection even as the surface temperature decreases towards 70F or 22C as Irene goes over waters of that temperature as she approaches NYC.

[AdamFirst]

888
UZNT13 KNHC 280145
XXAA 78027 99370 70755 11675 99955 22003 34512 00899 ///// /////
92281 21202 33516 85016 20803 34507 70684 13605 02502 88999 77999
31313 09608 80136
61616 AF304 3409A IRENE OB 15
62626 EYE SPL 3701N07546W 0139 MBL WND 33516 AEV 20802 DLM WND 34
509 955696 WL150 33516 084 REL 3702N07547W 013602 SPG 3701N07546W
013958 =
XXBB 78028 99370 70755 11675 00955 22003 11897 20003 22850 20803
33707 14806 44696 13004
21212 00955 34512 11954 34013 22952 33522 33946 33513 44931 33517
55875 34513 66850 34507 77696 05002
31313 09608 80136
61616 AF304 3409A IRENE OB 15
62626 EYE SPL 3701N07546W 0139 MBL WND 33516 AEV 20802 DLM WND 34
509 955696 WL150 33516 084 REL 3702N07547W 013602 SPG 3701N07546W
013958 =

[Dave]

[Hogweed]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 01:45Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 34
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 1:36:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 37°01'N 75°28'W (37.0167N 75.4667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 37 miles (59 km) to the ENE (70°) from Virginia Beach, VA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,686m (8,812ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 103 nautical miles (119 statute miles) to the E (95°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 179° at 87kts (From the S at ~ 100.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 89 nautical miles (102 statute miles) to the E (95°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 955mb (28.20 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,062m (10,046ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,057m (10,030ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 87kts (~ 100.1mph) in the east quadrant at 1:07:10Z

[seahawkjd]

Several homes in Columbia, NC were destroyed by a tornado.

http://www.wcti12.com/slideshow/news/29 ... etail.html

[AdamFirst]

786
URNT15 KNHC 280155
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 35 20110828
014530 3733N 07518W 6955 02860 //// +094 //// 127057 057 048 005 01
014600 3735N 07517W 6961 02858 //// +102 //// 126057 057 046 005 01
014630 3737N 07516W 6959 02865 //// +091 //// 127057 057 045 008 01
014700 3738N 07516W 6958 02871 9700 +110 //// 127056 056 044 005 01
014730 3740N 07515W 6953 02882 9704 +099 //// 130056 057 045 007 01
014800 3742N 07514W 6955 02883 //// +086 //// 129056 058 045 006 01
014830 3744N 07513W 6957 02884 //// +096 //// 129058 059 046 006 01
014900 3745N 07513W 6953 02895 9724 +105 //// 128058 058 045 008 01
014930 3747N 07512W 6957 02894 //// +084 //// 127058 058 047 007 01
015000 3749N 07511W 6957 02895 //// +103 //// 126058 059 047 008 01
015030 3751N 07510W 6957 02901 //// +101 //// 127059 060 046 004 01
015100 3752N 07510W 6952 02913 //// +106 //// 128060 062 045 005 01
015130 3754N 07509W 6959 02902 //// +110 //// 129058 059 044 004 01
015200 3756N 07508W 6957 02914 //// +102 //// 130057 059 043 004 01
015230 3758N 07507W 6958 02911 //// +092 //// 130057 057 060 010 01
015300 3800N 07507W 6958 02916 //// +085 //// 132057 057 058 011 01
015330 3801N 07506W 6957 02921 //// +100 //// 130056 056 040 004 01
015400 3803N 07505W 6957 02925 //// +093 //// 131057 058 038 005 01
015430 3805N 07504W 6956 02928 //// +091 //// 132058 058 038 005 01
015500 3807N 07504W 6959 02929 //// +100 //// 131058 058 038 005 01
$$
;

[TropicalWXMA]

Water temperatures are warm enough all the way up to NYC to support a subtropical system. I don't see Irene weakening hardly at all before NYC partly for that reason as well (in addition to the jet evacuating huge amounts of outflow on the north side).

Remember, the key to convection is having a favorable lapse rate in a vertical column of atmosphere. That means, warm temperatures at the surface and cold temperatures aloft (so that the cold air aloft wants to fall and the warm air below wants to rise, creating convection and the release of latent heat as the warm moist air from the surface rises, cools, and is forced to relinquish its moisture, thus releasing heat and driving it higher until it cools, releases more latent heat from condensation, heats up again, rises some more, and so on...

So it doesn't matter if the surface is 26C and the temperature aloft is -50C, or if the surface is 22C and the temperature aloft is -55C...you're going to get convection in either case. (It's just that it's usually easier to raise the surface temperature through sunlight heating ocean water to 26C+ than it is to get a perfect upper air environment that provides for abnormally cold conditions aloft).

With that jet evacuating all that air aloft, that cools the air aloft (expanding air cools), keeping the lapse rate favorable for convection even as the surface temperature decreases towards 70F or 22C as Irene goes over waters of that temperature as she approaches NYC.

Great analysis!