ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/784131516855099392

Fortunately this has been dead wrong...
Why does Ryan Maue keep tweeting this?? He is a big time weather guy??

He has a history of over hyping things from what I can tell

[GeneratorPower]

Listen, while my personal opinion is this will be a non-event for Florida in the end, that's just a wacko personal opinion. This thing still has tremendous danger associated with it. Pro mets tweeting HRRR runs showing destruction of the Space Coast are not wrong for doing so. Beware!

[ncweatherwizard]

There is only one course change coming, from northwest to north. It will come sooner or later. The current nw course cannot change to west-northwest or west because the steering winds are not oriented that way. So the next, inevitable, course change will be more northerly which will take it further offshore and that will be so great for Florida's east coast - the sooner the better.

I agree, the sooner the better for Florida, but what about points north of there? Won't it give the storm more time over the warm waters to strengthen even more? Or do you think that could happen?

Actually the last few frames on satellite show the cloud tops are warming again. Remember that land interaction has also started as some of Matthew's circulation is now over Florida, and that will also allow some weakening despite the core being over very warm water. The overall factors governing whether it will strengthen anymore are trending towards a weakening. Right now I'm getting pretty optimistic that most of the east coast there may have dodged the bullet, but that's just this one person's opinion and we have to hang tight and hope I'm right.

Land interaction won't do squat for now. The entire core is over water and derives its energy from the warm, moist, unstable boundary layer. Once that outer eyewall reaches the coast, land interaction will probably become important. What's going on in the area of the rainbands is basically irrelevant.

[ZX12R]

At the moment, Matthew's core seems to be weakening. Anyone disagree with that?

Not sure it matters but I don't know how to answer that. A bigger weaker core could mean a lot more coastal flooding and damage.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/784176577806495744

Well, it matters if it's weakening, as opposed to strengthening, before landfall. But you're right, the damage that could be done, is debatable.

[EDR1222]

There is only one course change coming, from northwest to north. It will come sooner or later. The current nw course cannot change to west-northwest or west because the steering winds are not oriented that way. So the next, inevitable, course change will be more northerly which will take it further offshore and that will be so great for Florida's east coast - the sooner the better.

I agree, the sooner the better for Florida, but what about points north of there? Won't it give the storm more time over the warm waters to strengthen even more? Or do you think that could happen?

Actually the last few frames on satellite show the cloud tops are warming again. Remember that land interaction has also started as some of Matthew's circulation is now over Florida, and that will also allow some weakening despite the core being over very warm water. The overall factors governing whether it will strengthen anymore are trending towards a weakening. Right now I'm getting pretty optimistic that most of the east coast there may have dodged the bullet, but that's just this one person's opinion and we have to hang tight and hope I'm right.

Oh man......sitting here in Melbourne boarded up and waiting. I am hoping more than anything that you are right.

[stephen23]

Next radar pass the inner core will like it is headed NW, then West, Then SW, then back to the center. All while pushing the outer eyewall in that direction. Overall direction will still be NW at the same approx. 320 heading it has been heading for last 24 hours. That's my opinion.

[Rail Dawg]

Sitting here in an enclosed parking garage in Melbourne.

Fully-supplied in my truck with a well-lit reinforced stairwell should things get crazy.

I may catch a few hours sleep.

It's going to be a long night.

Good luck everyone!!

[shortwave]

Is it about 125 miles off west palm heading NNW based off radar? Looking better for those of us further up the coast. It would have to stair step more wnw to get any closer to the eastern florida coastline. Any other indications it will stay at least 50 miles off the coast?

[ronjon]

Looks like the inner eye is collapsing on Radar.

[ZX12R]

Listen, while my personal opinion is this will be a non-event for Florida in the end,

It's starting to look like that could be the case. But it's not said and done yet, so, we will see.

[psyclone]

Listen, while my personal opinion is this will be a non-event for Florida in the end, that's just a wacko personal opinion. This thing still has tremendous danger associated with it. Pro mets tweeting HRRR runs showing destruction of the Space Coast are not wrong for doing so. Beware!

It's clearly not a "non event", but neither is it a guaranteed catastrophe for east central/ne fl. Staying right of the track and keeping the most extreme winds offshore is the best we can hope for. I have a sense of very cautious optimism at this juncture. Full disclosure: my track record is spotty on a good day.

[ozonepete]

Andrew strengthened while part of its circulation was over Florida, did it not? Charley strengthened up through landfall too...

They were very small storms. Much smaller than Matthew. That made all of the difference.

They both also had a faster rate of forward motion. the center was quickly onshore before the deleterious effects of land could manifest. That's very important. Beyond that...those events are exceptions to the rule. That's precisely why people can reference them so quickly...they're memorable aberrations.

Thanks for adding that. They were indeed notable aberrations from what we usually see. And finally, remember that both changed course abruptly at the last minute and went over land sooner than was forecast.

[CrazyC83]

As they always say, hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

[Frank P]

Next radar pass the inner core will like it is headed NW, then West, Then SW, then back to the center. All while pushing the outer eyewall in that direction. Overall direction will still be NW at the same approx. 320 heading it has been heading for last 24 hours. That's my opinion.

Yep, IMO the overall heading of the system has been NW all day.. regardless of what the inner eye has been doing....

[Steve]

Next radar pass the inner core will like it is headed NW, then West, Then SW, then back to the center. All while pushing the outer eyewall in that direction. Overall direction will still be NW at the same approx. 320 heading it has been heading for last 24 hours. That's my opinion.

I think you're right. I wouldn't guarantee it would continue so, but when you look at the longer radar loops and satellite runs, it's pretty obvious. I'm a bit left of the NHC but considered a "srcape." I'm sure they'll be right in the end whatever they choose to do.

[ozonepete]

Sitting here in an enclosed parking garage in Melbourne.

Fully-supplied in my truck with a well-lit reinforced stairwell should things get crazy.

I may catch a few hours sleep.

It's going to be a long night.

Good luck everyone!!

Good luck dude! You're pretty much at ground zero. If the worst misses you then everyone will probably have fared better.

[Hammy]

Inner eye looks like it's bending WNW again in the last few frames.

[AdamFirst]

All Miami TV stations have stopped wall-to-wall hurricane coverage, I'm watching Thursday Night Football on WFOR (CBS)

[abajan]

Listen, while my personal opinion is this will be a non-event for Florida in the end,

It's starting to look like that could be the case. But it's not said and done yet, so, we will see.

Looks that way, but don't let your guard down just yet. Maximum sustained winds are down to 130 mph and it appears that the eye will remain offshore, but one never knows for certain.

[Frank P]

Inner eye looks like it's bending WNW again in the last few frames.

Been doing that the past several hours, looping within the outer eye, and I still believe the overall system is heading NW...