ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Janie2006]

Irma is behaving pretty much as predicted a few days ago, so I am confused about why people seem to think that it's doing something radical. There's no good reason to suppose that Irma will fall below major hurricane status. In fact, I wouldn't be at all surprised to find that it makes a US landfall as a strong 4. Even if it fails to do so, there are plenty of us on this board who will tell you that a Cat 3 hurricane can easily tear your hide off.

So, rush preparations to completion and remain vigilant.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Deep convection firing off in the eastern eyewall now, just FYI.

[tolakram]

Yeah, I don't see how she could even become a cat 4 after all this land

All that bathtub water with little to no shear between it and Florida. It will spend as much time over water when it turns as it has over Cuba.

It usually takes a storm longer to strengthen than weaken. It took her over a day to get back to cat 5 status

You ask a lot of questions and then make statements that don't have a lot of fact behind them. Storms are different, the atmosphere is different, the location is different, the water temps are different, the terrain nearby is different. In addition there is SW winds out in front of the storm that will greatly aid outflow.

There's a lot of history of storms rapidly strengthening near the keys and Florida straits.

Anyway,

saved Key West radar loop. Looks like a little more land interaction is in store before the north turn.

[meriland29]

Deep convection firing off in the eastern eyewall now, just FYI.

[psyclone]

I have made arrangements to to shelter at another location should things continue to look bad. I am afraid of the danger of falling trees and wind damage. while I am heartened to see the hurricane has weakened some it remains extremely powerful and could easily increase in both size and strength. I am terribly worried for my area...the tampa bay area has only evacuated level A areas. those who think Irma can't reintensify should look at a recent example: Harvey emerged from the Yucatan as a cat nothing and went to a cat 4. this is already a deep, very intense storm. I am scared for my piece of beautiful coastline but hopeful for some (any) positive development.

[GCANE]

Significant Tornado Potential increasing quickly.
Currently over Andros
Large CAPE ridge off east coast of FL and helicity building on the southern end of FL.
Very likely this all comes together later today and may see tornadoes ahead of Irma.
Stay safe, especially along the east coast.
Keep an eye on strong feeder bands.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I hope this would upwell and possibly weaken, but the waters are warm enough to counter the weakening of the storm and my gut tells me this may rebound back to category 5 status right before landfall... Irma's structure, as of late, hasn't degraded that much despite the prolonged land interaction with Cuba and may later begin reintensifying

[Janie2006]

Hrmmmm, there are a couple of scenarios that could come into play at this point depending on when Irma makes a turn to the north. What about a run up the west coast of Florida, but far enough offshore to maintain or perhaps strengthen? That could be a nightmare, as if what we currently have isn't enough of one.

[ava_ati]

saved Key West radar loop. Looks like a little more land interaction is in store before the north turn.

[imghttps://i.imgur.com/DEWGu27.gif[img

Sure hope so, Cuba took a huge hit and they weren't even able to weaken the storm (much)

I think my biggest worry is that it does this all the way up the west coast of Florida and ends up maintaining much of it's strength as it travels north.

[shawn6304]

currently i show it following the GFS track much more then the euro, much farther north then the euro forecasted, does anyone else see the same?

[northjaxpro]

Deep convection firing off in the eastern eyewall now, just FYI.

Yes, I noticed this too. It will not take long at all for that eye wall to regain intense convection once fully back over the bath waters of the Florida Straits.

[Steve]

Yeah, I don't see how she could even become a cat 4 after all this land

I'm not sure one way or the other. NHC noted in their 5:00am discussion that 135 knot winds may be generous. Overall Irma looks like her inner core is still in good shape, but there are gaps in radar and satellite and it does not appear to me that we will see the ferocious Irma from all week. This is not to suggest that it won't be a vicious storm in SW FL or that we won't have very bad surge in the bays and inlets all along the W FL coast. Had Irma been north 35-50 miles over the last 12 hours, it is much more likely that she would have remained on target to challenge 1935. I don't think it is as likely now.

GFS still anticipates pressure falls into the 920s which is plenty bad and should not be underplayed or underestimated. But the 880s/890s are done. Also many of the models seem to indicate it will be somewhat less symmetrical which is to be expected since the NHC is calling for strong westerly shear after 24 hours.

Seems like we've been through numerous scenarios over the last 72 hours with people from coastal SC all the way around and up WFL getting at least cat 1 conditions in a model run here or there with specific local areas seeing 2, 3, 4 and/or 5 conditions. Hopefully an additional 12-24 hours near northern Cuba will continue to stunt Irma in a way that we can look back at it as one of the biggest scares of our era and one that set records out at sea. I'm almost sure there will be Cat 3 conditions, but I would think they would be more localized than what we were looking at 24 hours ago. It appears Irma will be bad for many but less bad for others. 80mph gusts in some places that were looking at 135 yesterday has certainly got to be a relief. Everyone should know not to let their guards down. And I know the threat levels have gone up on the keys. We may escape complete annihilation of all of South Florida, but there will almost certainly be substantial loss and tradgedy. That's how I see things waking up this am.

[CrazyC83]

If the inner core is intact, it could indeed reintensify quite rapidly between Cuba and the Keys.

If the inner core is disrupted, then it would probably be steady state or slow strengthening.

[jasons2k]

I hope this would upwell and possibly weaken, but the waters are warm enough to counter the weakening of the storm and my gut tells me this may rebound back to category 5 status right before landfall... Irma's structure, as of late, hasn't degraded that much despite the prolonged land interaction with Cuba and may later begin reintensifying

The Gulf Stream, in the FL Straits, is a pretty swift current. There won't be any upwelling to affect the storm.

[northjaxpro]

Well said Steve!! Excellent post above!!

[stormreader]

All that bathtub water with little to no shear between it and Florida. It will spend as much time over water when it turns as it has over Cuba.

It usually takes a storm longer to strengthen than weaken. It took her over a day to get back to cat 5 status

You ask a lot of questions and then make statements that don't have a lot of fact behind them. Storms are different, the atmosphere is different, the location is different, the water temps are different, the terrain nearby is different. In addition there is SW winds out in front of the storm that will greatly aid outflow.

There's a lot of history of storms rapidly strengthening near the keys and Florida straits.

Anyway,

saved Key West radar loop. Looks like a little more land interaction is in store before the north turn.

Easy to see the well defined core and eye structure on that radar loop. Those who take this storm lightly now, do it at their own peril. Its been holding its own for several hours now as it has moved right along the coast. The weakening that happened occurred with the initial dip down onto Cuba. Storm couldn't maintain a 5 rating under those circumstances. But storm is doing really well right now, while along the north coast and feeding off the energy in the coastal waters. Intensification very likely, and predicted by NHC. No doubt, will be a very serious hurricane in Fl.

[Janie2006]

Look at those CAPE values. The atmosphere is primed and there's plenty of juice for tornadic activity. I should think that there will be tornadoes aplenty in those feeder bands.

[GCANE]

1200Z Radiosonde from Miami.
Air column pretty near saturated now.

[stormreader]

If the inner core is intact, it could indeed reintensify quite rapidly between Cuba and the Keys.

If the inner core is disrupted, then it would probably be steady state or slow strengthening.

True. Look at sat loops and radar. Inner core is completely intact.

[Snowman67]

Irma is behaving pretty much as predicted a few days ago, so I am confused about why people seem to think that it's doing something radical. There's no good reason to suppose that Irma will fall below major hurricane status. In fact, I wouldn't be at all surprised to find that it makes a US landfall as a strong 4. Even if it fails to do so, there are plenty of us on this board who will tell you that a Cat 3 hurricane can easily tear your hide off.

So, rush preparations to completion and remain vigilant.

Ike was a cat 2 when it hit the coast of Texas, and had devastating impacts. Do not let your guard down.