SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[Jagno]

I love Friday's forcast: Occasional rain. High near 60. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Now exactly what is occassional when combined with an 80% chance of rain? LOL

Today was one of those typical SW Louisiana winter days. When I got dressed this morning I had on an underarmer shirt, a polo shirt and a pull over sweater. By lunch I had on the polo. By 4pm I thought about taking that off too but employers are so picky about employees wearing clothing. LOL

[jasons2k]

I posted an update from Jeff here: viewtopic.php?f=22&t=109469&start=80

[srainhoutx]

Good morning and Happy Thanksgiving! The front is through the Metroplex, Brownwood, to San Angelo and heading S at this time. The temp drops look to be in the 15 to 20 degree range behind the boundary. It appears we'll have some post frontal moisture as well with a robust shortwave currently over NM and still digging SE along the base of the trough. It will be interesting to see if the front remains on schedule for a late afternoon/early evening arrival across SE TX. Also, HGX is mentioning a wide spread freeze for Saturday morning and Freeze Warnings are being mentioned as a strong possibility. The rollercoaster ride will continue regarding temps as we warm up starting Sunday to only take a tumble again on Monday in the progressive flow pattern.

[srainhoutx]

is on the way...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
942 AM CST THU NOV 25 2010

.DISCUSSION...
CF IS NEARING WACO THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW
EDGE OF THE CWA AROUND 1 PM. IT SHOULD REACH THE HOUSTON AREA IN
THE 5-6 PM TIME FRAME...THEN OFF THE UPPER COAST 7-8 PM. MADE
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. NUDGED FROPA UP
JUST A LITTLE AND LOWERED POPS A LITTLE ACROSS EXT E ZONES THIS
AFT. EXPECT TO SEE ABOUT A 35 DEGREE TEMP DROP BEHIND THE FRONT
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF ITS PASSAGE. WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING A
WIND ADVISORY LATER TODAY FOR THE COAST AND POSSIBLY THE IST
INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT`S STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

[srainhoutx]

Front just passed College Station with near 20 degree drop in less than 30 minutes.

[vbhoutex]

FROPA in your area was around 5:30(I was in your area). FROPA was at 6pm in my area(I10&Gessner) with about the same drop as at CS. Currently 45F and rainy at my house.

[srainhoutx]

39 degrees with light rain and drizzle at 9 AM. So much for the shorts and t shirt weather...

[wxman57]

I'm waiting for that "high of 60" on Friday that the NWS was forecasting last Sunday...

[vbhoutex]

39 degrees with light rain and drizzle at 9 AM. So much for the shorts and t shirt weather...

Yep!! that is what it was when I got up at 9:30. Now a blazing 45f with the sun starting to peek through. I too am waiting to see that 60f high they were forecasting.

[vbhoutex]

SE TX snow dreams are made of the GFS around the 300-324 hr. time frame(12/9-12/10). Could it verify for 3 years in a row? I am certainly not going to hold my breath!!

[Ntxw]

SE TX snow dreams are made of the GFS around the 300-324 hr. time frame(12/9-12/10). Could it verify for 3 years in a row? I am certainly not going to hold my breath!!

Wait till Wxman gets a hold of it to get excited . He's usually right on top of things when snow is a good possibility for SE Texas.

[Tireman4]

He stated interesting but would not put money on it.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
828 PM CST FRI NOV 26 2010

...A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.OVERNIGHT INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS A LARGE MAJORITY OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. REGIONS
THAT WILL WILL NOT DROP TO...OR BELOW...FREEZING WILL BE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE GULF COASTLINE OR ALONG LOCAL BAY SHORES. A DRY
AND COLD AIR MASS...ALONG WITH NEAR CALM WIND AND CLEAR SKIES...
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO...OR JUST BELOW...FREEZING FOR
A FEW HOURS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

TXZ199-200-213-227-236-237-271030-
/O.EXA.KHGX.FZ.W.0002.101127T0600Z-101127T1400Z/
BRAZORIA-FORT BEND-HARRIS-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
CLEVELAND...CONROE...DAYTON...FREEPORT...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...
KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LIBERTY...MISSOURI CITY...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SUGAR LAND...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...WILLIS
828 PM CST FRI NOV 26 2010

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST
SATURDAY...

A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT GALVESTON AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION HAS HELPED TO CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWER WINDS. THESE FACTORS...COMBINED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO COVER TENDER VEGETATION AND BRING IN
SMALL OUTDOOR ANIMALS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

[wxman57]

SE TX snow dreams are made of the GFS around the 300-324 hr. time frame(12/9-12/10). Could it verify for 3 years in a row? I am certainly not going to hold my breath!!

Wait till Wxman gets a hold of it to get excited . He's usually right on top of things when snow is a good possibility for SE Texas.

I pointed it out to "my long-range guy" at the office. He mentioned the negative NAO and other indicators of cold air in the next 2-3 weeks. But for now, it's a one-run GFS curiosity. I'll take more interest if it's saying the same thing a week from now, along with the Euro and Canadian.

[srainhoutx]

I had about 7 hour at or below freezing in NW Harris County with a low of 28 and light frost. IAH officially reached the freezing mark this morning as well.

[vbhoutex]

I had about 7 hour at or below freezing in NW Harris County with a low of 28 and light frost. IAH officially reached the freezing mark this morning as well.

We had at least 8 hours below freezing here at the house. Temp was at 30f at midnight and 32f at 8:30am with the min showing on the thermometer at 26.5f(not sure if that is an old leftover in the memory though). Anyway it was a lot colder a lot longer than I expected. I did nothing to protect the plants so I could be in trouble.
I guess the models once again had some trouble with the dense shallow cold air as it got about 4-5 degrees colder than originally progged. Anyone have an idea on this?

[vbhoutex]

Our low here at the house last night was 34f, about 4 degrees below the originally progged low for Houston. Already in the mid 60's now. Looks like we will bet back to freezing by mid-week. Wondering if the models will bring back the snowstorm for next week. Don't hold your breath unless you like blue.

[srainhoutx]

Bold forecast two days in arow from HGX...

THEN THINGS GET DICEY. GFS HAS BEEN
BOUNCING AROUND A LOT LATELY WITH ITS SOLUTIONS IN THE WESTERN
U.S. AND ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO THE WEST. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD A STRONGER
SOLUTION BUT NOT BITING OFF ON IT ENTIRELY YET. SO FOR NOW EXPECT
A COLD FRONT TO DROP IN SATURDAY DURING THE DAY SLIDING EAST WITH
OVERRUNNING AND WARM FRONT SETTING UP BY MONDAY. VERY COLD AIR
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. GETTING MORE CONFIDENT THAT A
SNOW EVENT SHAPING UP FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH TEXAS BY
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A CLOUDY...COLD AND WET END TO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN SETX.

[somethingfunny]

Sure, it's easy for HGX to forecast snow for North Texas - that area's not their responsibility.

Bold forecast two days in arow from HGX...

THEN THINGS GET DICEY. GFS HAS BEEN
BOUNCING AROUND A LOT LATELY WITH ITS SOLUTIONS IN THE WESTERN
U.S. AND ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO THE WEST. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD A STRONGER
SOLUTION BUT NOT BITING OFF ON IT ENTIRELY YET. SO FOR NOW EXPECT
A COLD FRONT TO DROP IN SATURDAY DURING THE DAY SLIDING EAST WITH
OVERRUNNING AND WARM FRONT SETTING UP BY MONDAY. VERY COLD AIR
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. GETTING MORE CONFIDENT THAT A
SNOW EVENT SHAPING UP FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH TEXAS BY
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A CLOUDY...COLD AND WET END TO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN SETX.

[Ntxw]

Sure, it's easy for HGX to forecast snow for North Texas - that area's not their responsibility.

True it isn't, but many of the area forecasters refer to one another for better forecasts as weather in one region might effect the outcome of another . FW/HGX regions are large and many of the conjoining areas easily could be in the other. It would be fascinating indeed to see Houston get snow in early Dec for a third year in a row.