WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[oaba09]

source:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=WP232009

200910290600 15.8 130.6 90
200910290000 16.1 132.2 90
200910281800 16.3 133.7 85
200910281200 16.3 135.4 85
200910280600 16.2 136.9 85
200910280000 16.2 138.5 75
200910271800 15.9 140.2 65
200910271200 15.6 142.2 45
200910270600 14.8 143.7 40
200910270000 14.1 145.4 35
200910261800 13.6 146.9 35
200910261200 13.2 148.4 35
200910260600 12.7 149.9 30
200910260000 12.2 151.3 25

The number on the right is the wind speed in knots....they still have it at 90 knots(probably 1 minute average)

[dexterlabio]

the large cdo a while ago is impressive. maybe mirinae will spin another round of convection in the coming hours.

[oaba09]

JTWC's latest forecast(VERY NEAR TO METRO MANILA OR IS IT A DIRECT HIT?)



WTPN32 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 15.8N 130.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 130.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 15.5N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 15.1N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 14.9N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 14.9N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.8N 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.7N 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 12.8N 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 129.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED JUST SOUTH OF WEST AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TY 23W
HAS LOST SOME OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER BUT HAS
MAINTAINED A CENTRAL WIND SPEED OF 90 KNOTS. THIS INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING ITS MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT
WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ITS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE
STRONG WESTERLIES ARE ENHANCING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM.
TY MIRINAE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. TY 23W IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN BEFORE IT MAKES
LANDFALL IN CENTRAL LUZON AFTER TAU 36. MIRINAE WILL THEN EMERGE IN
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY TAU 48 AND BEGIN TO REINTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
TOWARDS CENTRAL VIETNAM. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WBAR AS THE SOLE OUTLIER TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE.
THIS FORECAST IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF JTWC CONSENSUS ALONG WITH ECMWF
AND JGSM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

good news is that mirinae could already have reached its peak intensity (90kts) but the bad news for us is that the forecasts are now beginning to show a hit in metro manila. jtwc just issued its latest bulletin and that's what it says.

[oaba09]

good news is that mirinae could already have reached its peak intensity (90kts) but the bad news for us is that the forecasts are now beginning to show a hit in metro manila. jtwc just issued its latest bulletin and that's what it says.

Yup........this is bad.....

[drdavisjr]

Ok, considering that me and oaba09 are about 15 miles north of manila...you know what that means right?

[oaba09]

Ok, considering that me and oaba09 are about 15 miles north of manila...you know what that means right?

Good luck to both of us

[drdavisjr]

we might get the eye directly overhead...

[dhoeze]

Good Luck to us. I may not be located North of Manila but Pasig has just dried up 2 days ago.
Any rainfall will start the flood to rise again.

So are we saying, it lost some of its water? right?
Sory just a newbie here.

[drdavisjr]

Good Luck to us. I may not be located North of Manila but Pasig has just dried up 2 days ago.
Any rainfall will start the flood to rise again.

So are we saying, it lost some of its water? right?
Sory just a newbie here.

Well, it's going to be getting into some warmer water really soon and likely to intensify. Remember the storm is still 36 or so hours away.

The agency is still forecasting 85 knot winds, that's 150 kph. Not a weak little system at all.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[oaba09]

Good Luck to us. I may not be located North of Manila but Pasig has just dried up 2 days ago.
Any rainfall will start the flood to rise again.

So are we saying, it lost some of its water? right?
Sory just a newbie here.

Well, it's going to be getting into some warmer water really soon and likely to intensify. Remember the storm is still 36 or so hours away.

The agency is still forecasting 85 knot winds, that's 150 kph. Not a weak little system at all.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Exactly......85 knots is still quite powerful.....

[drdavisjr]

I wish it was better news. But we could get several inches of rain.

[ManilaTC]

What the...

Its going gonna west at 14.9N in less than 36hrs?? When its just north of manila, that point is at Norzagaray-Pandi Bulacan area...

then computing the size of the eye... 10NM... about 20km...

Metro manila will be in the southern eyewall.

Jim Edds, looks like no travel for you when you get to manila.

[oaba09]

What the...

Its going gonna west at 14.9N in less than 36hrs?? When its just north of manila, that point is at Norzagaray-Pandi Bulacan area...

then computing the size of the eye... 10NM... about 20km...

Metro manila will be in the southern eyewall.

Jim Edds, looks like no travel for you when you get to manila.

Yeah Jim....I think it would be better if you stay in manila(Manila Bay will be a great observation point)

[jumperitis]

holy christ...the forecast is getting to be more and more to the south!

[ManilaTC]

The latest model runs...

ECMWF was right after all...

[drdavisjr]

Just gives me a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach.

[oaba09]

I wish it was better news. But we could get several inches of rain.

Oh man...this is very troubling.......I'm gonna tell my brother not to go to work on saturday.....

[drdavisjr]

My daughter has a Halloween party tomorrow at her school. I wonder in MMLA will be under a PSWS tonight???

[oaba09]

My daughter has a Halloween party tomorrow at her school. I wonder in MMLA will be under a PSWS tonight???

Is the party at night? I highly suggest not to let her go.........