ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[GCANE]

Shear does seem to be decreasing.

At 8:00Z AMSU was showing about 11 knots.

At 12:00Z CIMSS had it at 2 knots.

ADT is looking much improved.

Will be interesting to see if the TUTT will help to create an enhanced poleward outflow channel.



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 000&loop=0

[KWT]

Either way this one is steadily looking better and better IMO, its developed a nice comma shape now.

[cycloneye]

Notice the slowdown at days 3-5.

[KWT]

Yep thats as expected really Cycoloneye, the consensus model does slow down as well probably as the trough starts to lift out again but has enough of a connection to take it northwards still...still wouldn't take much of a shift west to put Bermuda in the cone.

[canes04]

Luis,

That was my thinking this morning that it may get trapped, but if it's that far north forgetaboutit.
So I guess I was crazy in thinking things could change if it slowed down in the 5 day range.

Hurricane at 5pm today!!

[cycloneye]

Look how the NHC track has shifted to the east with time.

[KWT]

To be honest cycloneye the NHC track thus far has been doing well, no reason to think this one will travel outside the cone they have out at the moment, though the 4-5 day part of the track has been shifting slightly further to the east as time goes by.

[wxman57]

Here's a GFS 400-700mb (10,000-20,000ft) mean wind flow projection for 120hrs from now (10AM CDT SAT). If this verifies, it's hard to get Danielle to the U.S. East Coast, or even Bermuda. No blocking indicated to its north.

[neospaceblue]

What are the chances of this exploding once the shear dies down? Something about Danielle reminds me of Ike right before that happened.

[cycloneye]

What are the chances of this exploding once the shear dies down? Something about Danielle reminds me of Ike right before that happened.

NHC at the 11 AM Advisory talks about that posibbility.

THERE IS
SOME CHANCE THAT DANIELLE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE FASTER DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.

[CrazyC83]

What are the chances of this exploding once the shear dies down? Something about Danielle reminds me of Ike right before that happened.

That is what I am thinking will happen. Probably tonight or tomorrow. At this time tomorrow Danielle might be a major hurricane I think.

[HURAKAN]

Loop

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be on the cusp of a hurricane if not one already. I say we have Hurricane Danielle at 5 pm.

[StormTracker]

"The Perfect Storm"! A beautiful thing of nature to watch & learn from & no harm done to anything or anyone!

[caribepr]

"The Perfect Storm"! A beautiful thing of nature to watch & learn from & no harm done to anything or anyone!

Irony is ironic...I believe it was the "Perfect Storm" that killed more than a few fishermen. I know you didn't mean that though!

[cwachal]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 AUG 2010 Time : 161500 UTC
Lat : 15:13:27 N Lon : 39:41:17 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 982.2mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 4.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -72.9C Cloud Region Temp : -73.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Scorpion]

Yep should be a hurricane at 5. Looks to be organizing quickly, definitely see an eyewall forming.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Buck]

Starting to take on a very beautiful shape.

[pricetag56]

almost looks like its trying to form an eye within the developing eyewall