Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[Vortex]

12Z ukmet also on it for part 2 with developments over NW carribean




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal120.gif

[HURAKAN]

HPC day 6

[hurricaneCW]

It's a complex setup with several lows but none of them look to be too impressive. Florida could possibly see a direct impact from Nicole, Otto, and Paula in the next 10 days but are likely to be no stronger than a moderate tropical storm. It'll be like a bunch of Fays meandering around.

Perhaps the last storm in the Caribbean gyre could be strongest one, but that would be well into October, or if a system positively interacts with a trough that will aid it rather than disrupt it, then you could get an enhanced system making landfall. As of now, there is nothing that indicates that the region will see anything stronger than a tropical storm.

There are no models showing a stronger system, but again, flooding could be an issue.

[cycloneye]

TAFB latest 72 hour forecast.

[otowntiger]

It's a complex setup with several lows but none of them look to be too impressive. Florida could possibly see a direct impact from Nicole, Otto, and Paula in the next 10 days but are likely to be no stronger than a moderate tropical storm. It'll be like a bunch of Fays meandering around.

Perhaps the last storm in the Caribbean gyre could be strongest one, but that would be well into October, or if a system positively interacts with a trough that will aid it rather than disrupt it, then you could get an enhanced system making landfall. As of now, there is nothing that indicates that the region will see anything stronger than a tropical storm.

There are no models showing a stronger system, but again, flooding could be an issue.

Yeah, that's just what we need.

[blp]

Looks the Euro has gone low happy just like the GFS.

[tlopes1980]

It's a complex setup with several lows but none of them look to be too impressive. Florida could possibly see a direct impact from Nicole, Otto, and Paula in the next 10 days but are likely to be no stronger than a moderate tropical storm. It'll be like a bunch of Fays meandering around.

Perhaps the last storm in the Caribbean gyre could be strongest one, but that would be well into October, or if a system positively interacts with a trough that will aid it rather than disrupt it, then you could get an enhanced system making landfall. As of now, there is nothing that indicates that the region will see anything stronger than a tropical storm.

There are no models showing a stronger system, but again, flooding could be an issue.

I dunno... if there are 3, would-be-NICOLE looks like it would be a moderate TS (obviously a chance to be stronger), would-be-OTTO looks to be barely a TS (maybe just a slug of moisture or TD instead of a named system), but the third system progged to landfall mid next week looks to be the strongest of the three, at least at minimal hurricane strength

[wzrgirl1]

I wouldn't focus too much on strength right now but the fact that the set up looks like several low pressures at the minimum proggred to be in our area next week with some of the highest heat content around. I have sources that tell me that FPL (Florida Power and Light) is on high alert for a tropical system to hit our area around Friday with a possible 2-day delay. Stay on alert....that is my message.

[jinftl]

That is the probability of development in the next 48 hours...aren't most of the models suggesting development after 48 hours?

Interesting that NHC kept it at 10%. Anyone care to weigh in on the reasoning?

[dwsqos2]

For system one I'm going weak TS (<50 knots) tops. If the GFS upper-level wind progs verify, then system two would have more potential, but keep in mind that at this range system one had decent 200 mb support modeled. However it now appears likely that system one is going to have to contend with rather strong southwesterly flow aloft.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ConvergenceZone]

For system one I'm going weak TS (<50 knots) tops. If the GFS upper-level wind progs verify, then system two would have more potential, but keep in mind that at this range system one had decent 200 mb support modeled. However it now appears likely that system one is going to have to contend with rather strong southwesterly flow aloft.

I don't think ANYBODY thinks these storms are going to be very strong as far as winds are concerned, so I wouldn't even concentrate on that now. Just think of it as the potential of 2 to 3 strong low pressure systems or tropical storms over the next several days that may bring copius amounts of rain to Florida. A serious flooding threat...

[Blown Away]

seems like I see an LLC spinning also. It's quite visible in the visible loops......does anybody else see it?

Sure does look like a LLC, the problem is it is moving NW at a pretty good clip and almost all the models have our developing low sitting the Caribbean for a few days. So my thinking it is some kind of eddy and not the LLC we are waiting for??

[Florida1118]

For system one I'm going weak TS (<50 knots) tops. If the GFS upper-level wind progs verify, then system two would have more potential, but keep in mind that at this range system one had decent 200 mb support modeled. However it now appears likely that system one is going to have to contend with rather strong southwesterly flow aloft.

I don't think ANYBODY thinks these storms are going to be very strong as far as winds are concerned, so I wouldn't even concentrate on that now. Just think of it as the potential of 2 to 3 strong low pressure systems or tropical storms over the next several days that may bring copius amounts of rain to Florida. A serious flooding threat...

So we dont need to board up, just get sandbags?

[srainhoutx]

HPC in Final Extended Update...

PRIMARY GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES AT MORE MODERATE SCALE START EARLY IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 00
UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGING MORE LEAD HEIGHT FALLS SEWD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST MIDWEEK THAN OTHER GUIDANCE THAT ACTS AS A MORE
EFFICIENT ERN US TROUGH/PCPN KICKER THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE OTHER
THAN NOGAPS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SEEMS TO SUGGESTS THAT THE
00 UTC ECMWF MAY BE TOO QUICK TO BRING HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...LENDING TO A MORE BLENDED GUIDANCE SOLUTION. THE 00 UTC
GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN AND GFS/CANADIAN/NAEFS ENSEMBLES HOLD COPIOUSLY
MORE RAINFALL INLAND OVER THE ERN STATES WITH MORE ENERGY ALOFT
HOLDING BACK AT THE SRN END OF THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION. THE 06
UTC GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THAT LATTER
CLUSTER BUT 12 UTC GUIDANCE CERTAINLY NOW STILL LEAVES THE DOOR
WIDE OPEN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD/LOCALLY HEAVY TROPICAL
MOISTURE FUELED RAINS. A 16Z HPC/TPC COORDINATION CALL FOSTER SOME
FORM OF TROPICAL LOW INTO FL LATE WEEK/WEEKEND WITH A UNCERTAIN
STRENGTH/SPEED...BUT DEEP LEAD MOISTURE.

[Vortex]

looks like HWRF develops storm 2 over the NW carribean at H126....


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Vortex]

GFDL appears rather strong with #1 at least a hurricane



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[wxman57]

Looks like a setup for multiple storms. Already had one (Matthew). Next on by Wed, and maybe another next weekend or early the following week.

[Blown Away]

Looks like a setup for multiple storms. Already had one (Matthew). Next on by Wed, and maybe another next weekend or early the following week.

Wxman57 is that the LLC developing near 18N/85W or some kind of eddy?

[SFLcane]

[ConvergenceZone]

For system one I'm going weak TS (<50 knots) tops. If the GFS upper-level wind progs verify, then system two would have more potential, but keep in mind that at this range system one had decent 200 mb support modeled. However it now appears likely that system one is going to have to contend with rather strong southwesterly flow aloft.

I don't think ANYBODY thinks these storms are going to be very strong as far as winds are concerned, so I wouldn't even concentrate on that now. Just think of it as the potential of 2 to 3 strong low pressure systems or tropical storms over the next several days that may bring copius amounts of rain to Florida. A serious flooding threat...

So we dont need to board up, just get sandbags?

Exactly...I mean I don't think anyone should panic as far as flooding is concerned, since nobody knows exactly where the tropical depression or tropical storm will end up, but they should be prepared and expect the worst