URNT15 KWBC 271033
NOAA2 0212A KAREN HDOB 09 20070927
101400 1333N 04756W 7808 02250 0121 +133 +131 040020 021 032 000 00
101500 1331N 04752W 7810 02242 0120 +129 +129 027016 021 040 005 00
101600 1329N 04749W 7803 02247 0117 +131 +131 032016 018 036 004 00
101700 1327N 04745W 7811 02240 0113 +135 +132 004017 021 032 001 00
101800 1326N 04741W 7809 02239 0114 +134 +129 358015 015 030 000 03
101900 1326N 04737W 7809 02238 0111 +133 +133 001012 015 032 000 00
102000 1326N 04733W 7808 02235 0107 +134 +134 010011 012 032 000 00
102100 1326N 04729W 7810 02233 0105 +135 +135 005011 011 032 000 00
102200 1326N 04725W 7807 02232 0102 +135 +135 014014 015 033 000 00
102300 1325N 04721W 7809 02230 0098 +137 +137 013014 016 036 000 00
102400 1325N 04717W 7813 02224 0091 +141 +141 016013 014 034 000 00
102500 1324N 04713W 7812 02219 0083 +144 +143 003010 016 034 000 00
102600 1323N 04708W 7809 02218 0079 +145 +145 001010 012 035 001 00
102700 1323N 04704W 7810 02215 0072 +148 +147 340008 011 038 000 00
102800 1324N 04700W 7808 02212 0064 +151 +146 325011 013 038 000 00
102900 1325N 04657W 7809 02208 0052 +163 +139 328016 016 046 000 00
103000 1327N 04653W 7808 02207 0040 +178 +127 001017 017 048 000 00
103100 1328N 04649W 7811 02200 0031 +183 +124 350015 017 047 000 00
103200 1329N 04646W 7810 02200 0031 +178 +134 341013 014 047 000 00
103300 1330N 04642W 7810 02200 0026 +181 +137 006011 013 043 000 00
Plane near center:
max fl wind: 28 kt
max SFMR wind: 48 kt
min extrapol SLP: 1003 hPa
Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images
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Gustywind
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000
WTNT32 KNHC 270844
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 AM AST THU SEP 27 2007
...KAREN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.6 WEST OR ABOUT 970
MILES...1560 KM...EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KAREN IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND SOME FURTHER WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CURRENT REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 41041 AND PREVIOUS REPORTS FROM THE
STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SHOW THAT KAREN IS A VERY
LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...13.6 N...46.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
000
WTNT22 KNHC 270841
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
0900 UTC THU SEP 27 2007
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 46.6W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT.......150NE 105SE 25SW 75NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 45SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 46.6W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 46.1W
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.6N 48.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 45SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.8N 50.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 45SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.9N 51.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.1N 53.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.0N 56.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 21.5N 57.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 23.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 46.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
000
WTNT42 KNHC 270841
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2007
THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON KAREN THIS
MORNING. RECENT TRMM AND AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME DECOUPLED FROM
THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVELS. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATEAN ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT 60 N MI NORTHEAST OF THECENTER...EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES.
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 3.0/4.0 FROM TAFB AND3.0/3.5 FROM SAB. TAKING A BLEND OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALONGWITH THE CURRENT SATELLITE APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY FASTER...ABOUT 300/13. A WEAK RIDGE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. AFTER
24- TO 36-HOURS...LARGE DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE EXISTS WHEN A DEEP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONE
GROUP OF MODELS MAINTAINS KAREN AS A STRONGER CYCLONE AND TAKES THE
SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH. THE SECOND
GROUP FORECAST KAREN AS A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM AND STEER IT WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LATTER
SOLUTION...WHICH IS CLOSE WITH THE GFS AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY PACKAGE.
THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR
SO...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND OF THE
CYCLONE. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS
THE SHEAR TO DECREASE. HOWEVER...THE DECREASED SHEAR APPEARS TO BE
RESULTANT OF KAREN APPROACHING THE AXIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH...WHICH WOULD NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR MUCH STRENGTHENING
EITHER. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH FIVE DAYS. BUT...IF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMES FURTHER SEPARATED FROM THE
DEEP CONVECTION...THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKER FASTER THAN INDICATED.
NOAA BUOY 41041 REPORTED A MAXIMUM 1-MINUTE WIND OF 43 KT AROUND
0700 UTC...ABOUT 75 N MI NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0900Z 13.6N 46.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 14.6N 48.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 15.8N 50.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 16.9N 51.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 18.1N 53.7W 45 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 20.0N 56.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 21.5N 57.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 23.0N 59.0W 40
KT
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
WTNT32 KNHC 270844
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 AM AST THU SEP 27 2007
...KAREN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.6 WEST OR ABOUT 970
MILES...1560 KM...EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KAREN IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND SOME FURTHER WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CURRENT REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 41041 AND PREVIOUS REPORTS FROM THE
STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SHOW THAT KAREN IS A VERY
LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...13.6 N...46.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
000
WTNT22 KNHC 270841
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
0900 UTC THU SEP 27 2007
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 46.6W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT.......150NE 105SE 25SW 75NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 45SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 46.6W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 46.1W
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.6N 48.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 45SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.8N 50.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 45SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.9N 51.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.1N 53.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.0N 56.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 21.5N 57.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 23.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 46.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
000
WTNT42 KNHC 270841
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2007
THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON KAREN THIS
MORNING. RECENT TRMM AND AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME DECOUPLED FROM
THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVELS. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATEAN ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT 60 N MI NORTHEAST OF THECENTER...EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES.
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 3.0/4.0 FROM TAFB AND3.0/3.5 FROM SAB. TAKING A BLEND OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALONGWITH THE CURRENT SATELLITE APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY FASTER...ABOUT 300/13. A WEAK RIDGE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. AFTER
24- TO 36-HOURS...LARGE DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE EXISTS WHEN A DEEP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONE
GROUP OF MODELS MAINTAINS KAREN AS A STRONGER CYCLONE AND TAKES THE
SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH. THE SECOND
GROUP FORECAST KAREN AS A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM AND STEER IT WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LATTER
SOLUTION...WHICH IS CLOSE WITH THE GFS AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY PACKAGE.
THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR
SO...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND OF THE
CYCLONE. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS
THE SHEAR TO DECREASE. HOWEVER...THE DECREASED SHEAR APPEARS TO BE
RESULTANT OF KAREN APPROACHING THE AXIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH...WHICH WOULD NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR MUCH STRENGTHENING
EITHER. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH FIVE DAYS. BUT...IF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMES FURTHER SEPARATED FROM THE
DEEP CONVECTION...THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKER FASTER THAN INDICATED.
NOAA BUOY 41041 REPORTED A MAXIMUM 1-MINUTE WIND OF 43 KT AROUND
0700 UTC...ABOUT 75 N MI NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0900Z 13.6N 46.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 14.6N 48.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 15.8N 50.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 16.9N 51.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 18.1N 53.7W 45 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 20.0N 56.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 21.5N 57.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 23.0N 59.0W 40
KT
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
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HenkL
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- Contact:
URNT15 KWBC 271053
NOAA2 0212A KAREN HDOB 10 20070927
103400 1330N 04638W 7810 02195 0016 +192 +133 008008 009 027 000 00
103500 1330N 04634W 7812 02194 0014 +194 +134 015001 005 012 000 00
103600 1330N 04630W 7809 02196 0016 +193 +133 112007 010 026 000 00
103700 1330N 04626W 7809 02200 0027 +182 +138 145013 014 030 000 00
103800 1330N 04622W 7808 02206 0042 +170 +144 146021 024 033 000 00
103900 1330N 04618W 7811 02205 0053 +162 +141 160027 027 035 000 00
104000 1330N 04614W 7811 02211 0062 +156 +142 169029 030 035 000 00
104100 1330N 04610W 7810 02215 0073 +151 +134 163032 033 034 000 00
104200 1330N 04606W 7812 02218 0087 +141 +133 174035 036 034 000 00
104300 1330N 04602W 7811 02223 0093 +141 +130 174035 035 033 000 00
104400 1330N 04558W 7810 02230 0100 +138 +127 174035 036 028 000 00
104500 1330N 04554W 7810 02232 0102 +140 +119 181036 036 029 000 00
104600 1330N 04550W 7810 02234 0106 +138 +124 180034 035 028 000 00
104700 1330N 04546W 7811 02235 0104 +143 +122 181034 034 030 000 00
104800 1330N 04541W 7809 02240 0107 +143 +118 185035 035 029 000 00
104900 1330N 04537W 7809 02242 0113 +138 +124 181036 037 029 000 00
105000 1330N 04533W 7809 02243 0114 +141 +115 185036 037 026 000 00
105100 1330N 04529W 7809 02246 0117 +140 +116 185035 036 024 000 00
105200 1330N 04525W 7810 02246 0120 +138 +129 187034 036 023 000 00
105300 1330N 04520W 7809 02249 0123 +138 +129 185032 033 022 000 00
max fl wind: 37 kt (east of center)
max SFMR wind: 48 kt (west of center)
min extrapol SLP: 1001 hPa
NOAA2 0212A KAREN HDOB 10 20070927
103400 1330N 04638W 7810 02195 0016 +192 +133 008008 009 027 000 00
103500 1330N 04634W 7812 02194 0014 +194 +134 015001 005 012 000 00
103600 1330N 04630W 7809 02196 0016 +193 +133 112007 010 026 000 00
103700 1330N 04626W 7809 02200 0027 +182 +138 145013 014 030 000 00
103800 1330N 04622W 7808 02206 0042 +170 +144 146021 024 033 000 00
103900 1330N 04618W 7811 02205 0053 +162 +141 160027 027 035 000 00
104000 1330N 04614W 7811 02211 0062 +156 +142 169029 030 035 000 00
104100 1330N 04610W 7810 02215 0073 +151 +134 163032 033 034 000 00
104200 1330N 04606W 7812 02218 0087 +141 +133 174035 036 034 000 00
104300 1330N 04602W 7811 02223 0093 +141 +130 174035 035 033 000 00
104400 1330N 04558W 7810 02230 0100 +138 +127 174035 036 028 000 00
104500 1330N 04554W 7810 02232 0102 +140 +119 181036 036 029 000 00
104600 1330N 04550W 7810 02234 0106 +138 +124 180034 035 028 000 00
104700 1330N 04546W 7811 02235 0104 +143 +122 181034 034 030 000 00
104800 1330N 04541W 7809 02240 0107 +143 +118 185035 035 029 000 00
104900 1330N 04537W 7809 02242 0113 +138 +124 181036 037 029 000 00
105000 1330N 04533W 7809 02243 0114 +141 +115 185036 037 026 000 00
105100 1330N 04529W 7809 02246 0117 +140 +116 185035 036 024 000 00
105200 1330N 04525W 7810 02246 0120 +138 +129 187034 036 023 000 00
105300 1330N 04520W 7809 02249 0123 +138 +129 185032 033 022 000 00
max fl wind: 37 kt (east of center)
max SFMR wind: 48 kt (west of center)
min extrapol SLP: 1001 hPa
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HenkL
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URNT12 KWBC 271049
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/1035Z
B. 13 DEG 29 MIN N
46 DEG 32 MIN W
C. NA
D. 48 KT
E. 275 DEG 20 NM
F. 045 DEG 28 KT
G. 275 DEG 96 NM
H. EXTRAP 1001 MB
I. 14 C/2143 M
J. 20 C/2140 M
K. 13 C/NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/NA
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 0212A KAREN OB 05 AL122007
MAX FL WIND 28 KT NW QUAD 1011Z
MAX SFMR WIND 48 KT NW QUAD 1030Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 7000 FT
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/1035Z
B. 13 DEG 29 MIN N
46 DEG 32 MIN W
C. NA
D. 48 KT
E. 275 DEG 20 NM
F. 045 DEG 28 KT
G. 275 DEG 96 NM
H. EXTRAP 1001 MB
I. 14 C/2143 M
J. 20 C/2140 M
K. 13 C/NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/NA
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 0212A KAREN OB 05 AL122007
MAX FL WIND 28 KT NW QUAD 1011Z
MAX SFMR WIND 48 KT NW QUAD 1030Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 7000 FT
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HenkL
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URNT15 KWBC 271113
NOAA2 0212A KAREN HDOB 11 20070927
105400 1330N 04516W 7810 02251 0126 +137 +123 186032 032 019 000 00
105500 1330N 04512W 7808 02255 0126 +140 +122 186032 032 023 000 00
105600 1330N 04508W 7809 02255 0126 +138 +138 188031 034 032 006 00
105700 1330N 04504W 7813 02251 0130 +137 +135 196031 033 026 000 00
105800 1330N 04459W 7803 02262 0128 +136 +135 192033 035 039 006 00
105900 1330N 04455W 7810 02253 0130 +136 +136 191040 042 039 006 00
110000 1330N 04451W 7811 02256 0129 +139 +137 192039 042 041 003 00
110100 1330N 04447W 7809 02259 0131 +136 +136 186036 040 043 002 00
110200 1330N 04442W 7808 02260 0134 +135 +135 198036 039 040 001 00
110300 1330N 04438W 7807 02264 0140 +132 +132 191036 037 038 000 00
110400 1330N 04434W 7810 02262 0142 +131 +131 169036 037 036 002 00
110500 1330N 04430W 7792 02277 0133 +131 +131 157032 037 056 019 03
110600 1330N 04426W 7816 02243 0132 +125 +125 172046 051 053 029 00
110700 1330N 04422W 7819 02242 0137 +126 +126 177046 050 045 012 00
110800 1330N 04418W 7802 02263 0144 +123 +123 176048 050 042 006 00
110900 1332N 04415W 7807 02262 0148 +121 +121 174039 043 999 999 03
111000 1336N 04414W 7812 02257 0149 +122 +122 168042 045 034 008 00
111100 1340N 04415W 7808 02260 0148 +122 +122 164044 046 037 004 00
111200 1344N 04418W 7806 02264 0147 +123 +123 165039 044 040 003 00
111300 1347N 04421W 7820 02246 0149 +121 +121 160038 040 039 007 00
Max fl wind: 51 kt
Max SFMR wind: 53 kt (56 is a suspect one)
NOAA2 0212A KAREN HDOB 11 20070927
105400 1330N 04516W 7810 02251 0126 +137 +123 186032 032 019 000 00
105500 1330N 04512W 7808 02255 0126 +140 +122 186032 032 023 000 00
105600 1330N 04508W 7809 02255 0126 +138 +138 188031 034 032 006 00
105700 1330N 04504W 7813 02251 0130 +137 +135 196031 033 026 000 00
105800 1330N 04459W 7803 02262 0128 +136 +135 192033 035 039 006 00
105900 1330N 04455W 7810 02253 0130 +136 +136 191040 042 039 006 00
110000 1330N 04451W 7811 02256 0129 +139 +137 192039 042 041 003 00
110100 1330N 04447W 7809 02259 0131 +136 +136 186036 040 043 002 00
110200 1330N 04442W 7808 02260 0134 +135 +135 198036 039 040 001 00
110300 1330N 04438W 7807 02264 0140 +132 +132 191036 037 038 000 00
110400 1330N 04434W 7810 02262 0142 +131 +131 169036 037 036 002 00
110500 1330N 04430W 7792 02277 0133 +131 +131 157032 037 056 019 03
110600 1330N 04426W 7816 02243 0132 +125 +125 172046 051 053 029 00
110700 1330N 04422W 7819 02242 0137 +126 +126 177046 050 045 012 00
110800 1330N 04418W 7802 02263 0144 +123 +123 176048 050 042 006 00
110900 1332N 04415W 7807 02262 0148 +121 +121 174039 043 999 999 03
111000 1336N 04414W 7812 02257 0149 +122 +122 168042 045 034 008 00
111100 1340N 04415W 7808 02260 0148 +122 +122 164044 046 037 004 00
111200 1344N 04418W 7806 02264 0147 +123 +123 165039 044 040 003 00
111300 1347N 04421W 7820 02246 0149 +121 +121 160038 040 039 007 00
Max fl wind: 51 kt
Max SFMR wind: 53 kt (56 is a suspect one)
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Category 5
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HenkL
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URNT15 KWBC 271133
NOAA2 0212A KAREN HDOB 12 20070927
111400 1351N 04425W 7820 02247 0147 +122 +122 154038 039 041 010 00
111500 1355N 04428W 7811 02256 0146 +121 +121 152036 037 043 008 00
111600 1358N 04431W 7811 02256 0150 +118 +118 147036 037 042 007 00
111700 1402N 04434W 7810 02259 0143 +127 +127 142034 036 044 010 00
111800 1405N 04437W 7811 02257 0138 +132 +130 144034 039 042 012 00
111900 1409N 04440W 7811 02257 0144 +129 +128 149032 036 042 009 00
112000 1412N 04443W 7811 02261 0148 +127 +127 137029 032 042 010 00
112100 1416N 04446W 7812 02261 0144 +131 +130 135027 028 042 010 00
112200 1419N 04449W 7811 02262 0136 +141 +130 123031 032 044 006 00
112300 1423N 04452W 7812 02261 0138 +139 +129 116033 034 045 006 00
112400 1426N 04455W 7812 02258 0136 +140 +131 122035 040 044 008 00
112500 1430N 04458W 7813 02257 0138 +137 +129 123041 044 040 004 00
112600 1433N 04501W 7810 02260 0143 +131 +127 121044 045 037 000 00
112700 1437N 04505W 7810 02257 0138 +133 +131 134045 046 035 000 00
112800 1441N 04508W 7811 02258 0141 +130 +130 139047 047 036 000 00
112900 1445N 04511W 7809 02260 0142 +128 +128 140047 048 037 000 00
113000 1448N 04514W 7809 02261 0143 +128 +128 132049 050 038 000 00
113100 1452N 04518W 7812 02259 0142 +130 +129 133046 050 039 000 00
113200 1456N 04521W 7809 02263 0145 +129 +129 132045 046 041 000 00
113300 1500N 04524W 7811 02260 0150 +125 +124 131049 049 041 000 00
NOAA2 0212A KAREN HDOB 12 20070927
111400 1351N 04425W 7820 02247 0147 +122 +122 154038 039 041 010 00
111500 1355N 04428W 7811 02256 0146 +121 +121 152036 037 043 008 00
111600 1358N 04431W 7811 02256 0150 +118 +118 147036 037 042 007 00
111700 1402N 04434W 7810 02259 0143 +127 +127 142034 036 044 010 00
111800 1405N 04437W 7811 02257 0138 +132 +130 144034 039 042 012 00
111900 1409N 04440W 7811 02257 0144 +129 +128 149032 036 042 009 00
112000 1412N 04443W 7811 02261 0148 +127 +127 137029 032 042 010 00
112100 1416N 04446W 7812 02261 0144 +131 +130 135027 028 042 010 00
112200 1419N 04449W 7811 02262 0136 +141 +130 123031 032 044 006 00
112300 1423N 04452W 7812 02261 0138 +139 +129 116033 034 045 006 00
112400 1426N 04455W 7812 02258 0136 +140 +131 122035 040 044 008 00
112500 1430N 04458W 7813 02257 0138 +137 +129 123041 044 040 004 00
112600 1433N 04501W 7810 02260 0143 +131 +127 121044 045 037 000 00
112700 1437N 04505W 7810 02257 0138 +133 +131 134045 046 035 000 00
112800 1441N 04508W 7811 02258 0141 +130 +130 139047 047 036 000 00
112900 1445N 04511W 7809 02260 0142 +128 +128 140047 048 037 000 00
113000 1448N 04514W 7809 02261 0143 +128 +128 132049 050 038 000 00
113100 1452N 04518W 7812 02259 0142 +130 +129 133046 050 039 000 00
113200 1456N 04521W 7809 02263 0145 +129 +129 132045 046 041 000 00
113300 1500N 04524W 7811 02260 0150 +125 +124 131049 049 041 000 00
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HURAKAN
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: CEN ATL: Discussions & Images
Category 5 wrote:Does anyone have the sheer map?
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Gustywind
- Category 5
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- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271053
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
653 AM AST THU SEP 27 2007
TROPICAL STORM KAREN...CURRENTLY NEAR 13.6N AND 46.6W...WEAKENED
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS IT ENCOUNTERED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...LIKELY RESULTING IN FURTHER WEAKENING
THIS SYSTEM. LATEST COMPUTER MODELS AND GUIDANCE FROM TPC TAKE
KAREN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL
BEING THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FXCA62 TJSJ 271053
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
653 AM AST THU SEP 27 2007
TROPICAL STORM KAREN...CURRENTLY NEAR 13.6N AND 46.6W...WEAKENED
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS IT ENCOUNTERED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...LIKELY RESULTING IN FURTHER WEAKENING
THIS SYSTEM. LATEST COMPUTER MODELS AND GUIDANCE FROM TPC TAKE
KAREN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL
BEING THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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HenkL
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- Location: Groningen, The Netherlands
- Contact:
URNT15 KWBC 271153
NOAA2 0212A KAREN HDOB 13 20070927
113400 1503N 04527W 7808 02266 0154 +122 +122 128048 050 041 000 00
113500 1507N 04530W 7809 02267 0158 +121 +121 120048 049 040 001 00
113600 1511N 04534W 7811 02265 0163 +119 +117 112051 052 039 000 00
113700 1514N 04537W 7811 02267 0164 +119 +112 112049 049 038 000 00
113800 1516N 04541W 7813 02266 0159 +127 +115 113048 051 999 999 03
113900 1513N 04543W 7810 02265 0162 +118 +118 113050 052 038 000 00
114000 1510N 04545W 7811 02263 0159 +118 +118 108054 055 040 000 03
114100 1506N 04548W 7810 02262 0154 +119 +119 114055 056 041 002 00
114200 1503N 04551W 7809 02262 0146 +126 +126 125049 057 042 003 00
114300 1500N 04553W 7812 02253 0140 +128 +128 123044 045 043 004 00
114400 1457N 04556W 7808 02258 0140 +127 +127 132044 046 042 003 00
114500 1454N 04558W 7813 02253 0134 +133 +133 129039 042 045 004 00
114600 1451N 04600W 7811 02254 0134 +132 +132 128041 042 046 000 00
114700 1447N 04602W 7810 02254 0131 +134 +134 132047 047 045 000 00
114800 1444N 04604W 7811 02251 0127 +137 +133 131048 049 044 001 00
114900 1441N 04606W 7810 02250 0128 +134 +132 132049 049 046 000 00
115000 1438N 04607W 7811 02247 0127 +132 +132 129049 050 046 000 00
115100 1434N 04609W 7809 02247 0122 +134 +134 128045 049 047 002 00
115200 1431N 04611W 7811 02244 0118 +136 +136 130048 049 048 002 00
115300 1428N 04613W 7809 02245 0116 +137 +137 134050 051 046 001 00
Max fl wind: 57 kt
NOAA2 0212A KAREN HDOB 13 20070927
113400 1503N 04527W 7808 02266 0154 +122 +122 128048 050 041 000 00
113500 1507N 04530W 7809 02267 0158 +121 +121 120048 049 040 001 00
113600 1511N 04534W 7811 02265 0163 +119 +117 112051 052 039 000 00
113700 1514N 04537W 7811 02267 0164 +119 +112 112049 049 038 000 00
113800 1516N 04541W 7813 02266 0159 +127 +115 113048 051 999 999 03
113900 1513N 04543W 7810 02265 0162 +118 +118 113050 052 038 000 00
114000 1510N 04545W 7811 02263 0159 +118 +118 108054 055 040 000 03
114100 1506N 04548W 7810 02262 0154 +119 +119 114055 056 041 002 00
114200 1503N 04551W 7809 02262 0146 +126 +126 125049 057 042 003 00
114300 1500N 04553W 7812 02253 0140 +128 +128 123044 045 043 004 00
114400 1457N 04556W 7808 02258 0140 +127 +127 132044 046 042 003 00
114500 1454N 04558W 7813 02253 0134 +133 +133 129039 042 045 004 00
114600 1451N 04600W 7811 02254 0134 +132 +132 128041 042 046 000 00
114700 1447N 04602W 7810 02254 0131 +134 +134 132047 047 045 000 00
114800 1444N 04604W 7811 02251 0127 +137 +133 131048 049 044 001 00
114900 1441N 04606W 7810 02250 0128 +134 +132 132049 049 046 000 00
115000 1438N 04607W 7811 02247 0127 +132 +132 129049 050 046 000 00
115100 1434N 04609W 7809 02247 0122 +134 +134 128045 049 047 002 00
115200 1431N 04611W 7811 02244 0118 +136 +136 130048 049 048 002 00
115300 1428N 04613W 7809 02245 0116 +137 +137 134050 051 046 001 00
Max fl wind: 57 kt
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: CEN ATL: Discussions & Images
From the 11 PM Discussion
THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 69 KT...WITH
A PEAK SURFACE VALUE OF 62 KT REPORTED TWICE...NOT QUITE HURRICANE
STRENGTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE FROM
EARLIER TODAY...KAREN WAS ALMOST CERTAINLY A HURRICANE THEN...AND
THIS LIKELIHOOD MAY BE REFLECTED IN THE FINAL BEST TRACK FOR THE
SYSTEM.
It looks like in the post season report,they will upgrade Karen to Hurricane.
THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 69 KT...WITH
A PEAK SURFACE VALUE OF 62 KT REPORTED TWICE...NOT QUITE HURRICANE
STRENGTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE FROM
EARLIER TODAY...KAREN WAS ALMOST CERTAINLY A HURRICANE THEN...AND
THIS LIKELIHOOD MAY BE REFLECTED IN THE FINAL BEST TRACK FOR THE
SYSTEM.
It looks like in the post season report,they will upgrade Karen to Hurricane.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
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- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Sheared system... shear is impacting Karen...an given the lastest shear map it's maybe a genearous shear for the moment...seems that the worst will be for the next couple of hours. Whereas convection is popping nicely east south east of the exposed LLC... balls of convection can be observed 
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-ir4.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-ir4.html
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hurricanetrack
- HurricaneTrack.com
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- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
Yet another cyclone that will face relentless shear.
This is a La Nina season, right? Am I incorrect in thinking that generally speaking, La Nina seasons would have less shear and large upper troughs carved out over the central Atlantic. I know the mid-ocean trough is always there to some degree, but this season, ever since Felix made landfall, every possible negative that could impact developing cyclones seems to have showed up out of the woodwork. What's the deal? We could end up with 15 named storms and 4 total hurricanes- with two of them barely making it to hurricane strength at all. As part of this whole phenomenon, I like to understand why certain things happen. Even the incredible 2005 season had to be explained and it was- record SSTs and nearly ZERO shear in the western Basin. What is the explanation for this meek season?
And, though off topic as related to Karen, I see that another "Nor'easter in the GOM" is progged to develop within 5-7 days. What the heck?
This is a La Nina season, right? Am I incorrect in thinking that generally speaking, La Nina seasons would have less shear and large upper troughs carved out over the central Atlantic. I know the mid-ocean trough is always there to some degree, but this season, ever since Felix made landfall, every possible negative that could impact developing cyclones seems to have showed up out of the woodwork. What's the deal? We could end up with 15 named storms and 4 total hurricanes- with two of them barely making it to hurricane strength at all. As part of this whole phenomenon, I like to understand why certain things happen. Even the incredible 2005 season had to be explained and it was- record SSTs and nearly ZERO shear in the western Basin. What is the explanation for this meek season?
And, though off topic as related to Karen, I see that another "Nor'easter in the GOM" is progged to develop within 5-7 days. What the heck?
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
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- Contact:
Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: CEN ATL: Discussions & Images
cycloneye wrote:From the 11 PM Discussion
THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 69 KT...WITH
A PEAK SURFACE VALUE OF 62 KT REPORTED TWICE...NOT QUITE HURRICANE
STRENGTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE FROM
EARLIER TODAY...KAREN WAS ALMOST CERTAINLY A HURRICANE THEN...AND
THIS LIKELIHOOD MAY BE REFLECTED IN THE FINAL BEST TRACK FOR THE
SYSTEM.
It looks like in the post season report,they will upgrade Karen to Hurricane.
NRL already stepped ahead.
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HenkL
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2401
- Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:33 pm
- Location: Groningen, The Netherlands
- Contact:
URNT15 KWBC 271213
NOAA2 0212A KAREN HDOB 14 20070927
115400 1424N 04615W 7810 02242 0113 +138 +138 135051 053 047 000 00
115500 1421N 04617W 7811 02239 0112 +136 +136 132051 052 047 000 00
115600 1418N 04619W 7812 02234 0107 +137 +137 130053 054 047 000 00
115700 1415N 04622W 7810 02235 0102 +139 +139 132053 054 049 000 00
115800 1412N 04624W 7812 02230 0097 +142 +142 130053 054 050 000 00
115900 1409N 04626W 7814 02223 0096 +140 +140 122056 057 050 001 00
120000 1406N 04629W 7811 02224 0089 +144 +143 126050 054 048 001 00
120100 1403N 04631W 7811 02223 0086 +144 +144 124050 052 048 000 00
120200 1400N 04633W 7812 02218 0080 +146 +146 121046 050 050 002 00
120300 1357N 04636W 7809 02218 0072 +152 +146 117045 046 045 001 00
120400 1354N 04638W 7809 02214 0066 +154 +146 115046 047 045 002 00
120500 1351N 04641W 7811 02210 0057 +160 +153 112043 046 042 001 00
120600 1347N 04643W 7811 02206 0044 +172 +145 113037 041 042 000 03
120700 1344N 04644W 7811 02205 0032 +187 +136 122022 037 035 000 00
120800 1340N 04646W 7813 02201 0023 +198 +127 115011 018 024 001 03
120900 1336N 04647W 7813 02205 0025 +199 +126 082009 010 015 000 03
121000 1333N 04647W 7816 02206 0032 +193 +130 097004 007 011 000 00
121100 1329N 04647W 7810 02215 0043 +187 +125 297002 005 019 000 00
121200 1325N 04649W 7812 02218 0047 +188 +122 219003 004 026 000 00
121300 1322N 04651W 7812 02218 0048 +190 +119 203005 007 019 000 00
extrapolated SLP near center: 1002 hPa
NOAA2 0212A KAREN HDOB 14 20070927
115400 1424N 04615W 7810 02242 0113 +138 +138 135051 053 047 000 00
115500 1421N 04617W 7811 02239 0112 +136 +136 132051 052 047 000 00
115600 1418N 04619W 7812 02234 0107 +137 +137 130053 054 047 000 00
115700 1415N 04622W 7810 02235 0102 +139 +139 132053 054 049 000 00
115800 1412N 04624W 7812 02230 0097 +142 +142 130053 054 050 000 00
115900 1409N 04626W 7814 02223 0096 +140 +140 122056 057 050 001 00
120000 1406N 04629W 7811 02224 0089 +144 +143 126050 054 048 001 00
120100 1403N 04631W 7811 02223 0086 +144 +144 124050 052 048 000 00
120200 1400N 04633W 7812 02218 0080 +146 +146 121046 050 050 002 00
120300 1357N 04636W 7809 02218 0072 +152 +146 117045 046 045 001 00
120400 1354N 04638W 7809 02214 0066 +154 +146 115046 047 045 002 00
120500 1351N 04641W 7811 02210 0057 +160 +153 112043 046 042 001 00
120600 1347N 04643W 7811 02206 0044 +172 +145 113037 041 042 000 03
120700 1344N 04644W 7811 02205 0032 +187 +136 122022 037 035 000 00
120800 1340N 04646W 7813 02201 0023 +198 +127 115011 018 024 001 03
120900 1336N 04647W 7813 02205 0025 +199 +126 082009 010 015 000 03
121000 1333N 04647W 7816 02206 0032 +193 +130 097004 007 011 000 00
121100 1329N 04647W 7810 02215 0043 +187 +125 297002 005 019 000 00
121200 1325N 04649W 7812 02218 0047 +188 +122 219003 004 026 000 00
121300 1322N 04651W 7812 02218 0048 +190 +119 203005 007 019 000 00
extrapolated SLP near center: 1002 hPa
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