TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[Portastorm]

It's been raining pretty steady for a while now. Just bitter, bone chilling, wet cold.

Dude, its like 35-40 degrees. We're at a whopping 13 and its the highest min the past several days.

I went to Tech in Lubbock. Weathered 4 winters up there with plenty of "real cold". But the coldest I actually felt was one weekend visiting my girlfriend's parents in Lake Jackson - it was windy, raining, and about 38F outside....

I totally hear you, Jason ... I grew up in the snowbelt of northeastern Ohio, where 60-70 inches of snow a winter was not uncommon. I remember delivering Cleveland Plain Dealer newspapers one morning when it was 19 below zero (air temp)! And the coldest I think I ever felt was sitting in the Cotton Bowl on New Years Day, 1991, watching Miami taunt and beat the snot out of my beloved Texas Longhorns. The temp was in the low 30s with some drizzle.

[jasons2k]

It was chilly this morning - I had a low of 29.5, the lowest so far all season.

[cheezyWXguy]

well, after putting in a 40% chance of a wintery mix with a low of 30 for my area wed. night...they dropped all precip chances for the middle week, except for maybe a 20% one night.
I cant believe how fast the models change...

[gboudx]

well, after putting in a 40% chance of a wintery mix with a low of 30 for my area wed. night...they dropped all precip chances for the middle week, except for maybe a 20% one night.
I cant believe how fast the models change...

If we've learned anything this winter it's to not buy into those forecasts when more than 1 to 2 days in advance. We weren't supposed to have snow flurries this past Friday, but yet it happened. Just take each day one at a time, and let your eyes tell you the forecast.

[southerngale]

No kidding, gboudx. We didn't get the flurries y'all got on Friday, but the high temps were much colder than expected. I could be wrong, but it seems like the forecasts are off more this year than usual, or maybe I'm just paying closer attention. Once I noticed that the NWS forecast low was pretty consistently too warm by several degrees, I started noticing more and comparing. I don't blame them... I know it's hard to forecast. I once wanted to be a meteorologist, but I wouldn't want their job. I prefer to predict from afar.
Anyhow, they did well last night. My low was forecast to be 28F and the two stations closest to me were both 27F.
Not the coldest this year... that came on January 3rd - a low of 24F and 25F at the two stations closest to me. I don't think it will get any lower than that this winter.

And not a single snowflake...

[cheezyWXguy]

Its just crazy though, how rapidly the GFS changed from the 18z to 0z last night, thus changing us from a 40% chance of winter precip to a totally dry scenario...anyone think itll flip back?

[srainhoutx]

well, after putting in a 40% chance of a wintery mix with a low of 30 for my area wed. night...they dropped all precip chances for the middle week, except for maybe a 20% one night.
I cant believe how fast the models change...

If we've learned anything this winter it's to not buy into those forecasts when more than 1 to 2 days in advance. We weren't supposed to have snow flurries this past Friday, but yet it happened. Just take each day one at a time, and let your eyes tell you the forecast.

My thoughts exactly.

[ETXHAMXYL]

These forecasts are driving me crazy. I think I will use the philosophy that George did on the Seinfield Show...just do the opposite. If they say snow, then it will be no, if they say no, then expect snow.
Or go to plan B...get yourself a weather rock. If the rock is wet it has rained. IF rock has ice on it, then it is frozen. If rock is under a foot of snow, then someone has stolen your rock and taken it way up North to Green Bay.
You guys must remember...weather is from Mother Nature...and we women have the right to change our minds...we are totally unpredictible..haven't you learned anything????? LOL

[CaptinCrunch]

These forecasts are driving me crazy. I think I will use the philosophy that George did on the Seinfield Show...just do the opposite. If they say snow, then it will be no, if they say no, then expect snow.
Or go to plan B...get yourself a weather rock. If the rock is wet it has rained. IF rock has ice on it, then it is frozen. If rock is under a foot of snow, then someone has stolen your rock and taken it way up North to Green Bay.
You guys must remember...weather is from Mother Nature...and we women have the right to change our minds...we are totally unpredictible..haven't you learned anything????? LOL

I just looked outside, and my weather rock is wet and cold....

and before you ask, on how I knew my rock was cold....it was Blue

[cheezyWXguy]

I have the feeling us in the northern DFW area maybe seeing some freezing rain or sleet mix in with our rain today. I woke up this morning to see a temp of around 37, now its 35 and the temp dropped about 6/10 of a degree in the last 10 minutes.

[southerngale]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
409 AM CST MON JAN 21 2008

<snippet>
THINGS GET INTERESTING THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POSSIBLE WINTER
PRECIPITATION. ENERGY EJECTING FROM TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS CAUSES WAA TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
PRECIPITATION SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SURFACE WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG FRONTAL
INVERSION OF 5C AROUND 800 MB FRIDAY MORNING WITH VERY DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING...MEANING
POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. BECAUSE OF THE OBVIOUS
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FIVE DAYS OUT WILL NOT MENTION ANY WINTER
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.



I have a feeling this won't bear watching for long. Call it gut.
Besides, it's only freezing rain or sleet.... blah.... I'd like to see the other S word.

[bktkckak]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
ISSUED 507 AM CST MON JAN 21 2008

DESPITE A FAIRLY BENIGN WEDNESDAY FORECAST...THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
BECOME ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN...USHERING ABUNDANT ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE
E ACROSS TX/LA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO
GENERATE VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVER E TX/N LA S OF I-20...MAINLY FROM
ELEVATED PRECIP. HOWEVER...COULD SEE ENOUGH OF THIS ELEVATED PRECIP
ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT ENOUGH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING SUCH THAT IP COULD MIX IN WITH VERY -RA.
HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A 2ND SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACROSS
THE MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD SHIFT MUCH COLDER/DRIER
AIR SE /OUR NEXT REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR MASS/ AND LIMIT ANY KIND OF
PRECIP. THUS...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ATTM TO ADD ANY WINTRY MIX TO THE
FORECAST GIVEN THIS SMALL TIMETABLE...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR. IN ANY CASE...IT DOESN/T LOOK TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
AS SFC TEMPS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

A MORE SW FLOW ALOFT IS ESTABLISHED BY LATE THURSDAY UNDER THIS NEW
ARCTIC AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE A BIT SKETCHIER IN REGARDS TO THE
EVOLUTION/TRACK OF THE W COAST CLOSED LOW...WITH THE GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN KICKING THIS LOW E LATE THURSDAY THAN THE MUCH SLOWER
ECMWF. IN ANY CASE...IT APPEARS ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY...WHICH COULD ALSO YIELD A WINTRY
MIX OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW INCREASES BY THIS
TIME...WITH SRLY LLJ ESTABLISHED OVER TX. AMOUNT OF WARM ADVECTION
WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR...AND
STILL DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO THE FORECAST
EITHER...GIVEN SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS REMAINED
CONSISTENT IN RECENT DAYS WITH THE EJECTION OF THE WEST COAST LOW INTO
THE WESTERLIES...SUCH THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEKEND.

[gboudx]

I have the feeling us in the northern DFW area maybe seeing some freezing rain or sleet mix in with our rain today. I woke up this morning to see a temp of around 37, now its 35 and the temp dropped about 6/10 of a degree in the last 10 minutes.

NWS says some light sleet is being reported mixed in with the rain. I've been inside all day so I can't confirm any here in Plano.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
106 PM CST MON JAN 21 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-212100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
106 PM CST MON JAN 21 2008

.NOW...
SHOWERS PRODUCING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN ARE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE A FEW HUNDREDTHS
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT
SLEET HAS BEEN REPORTED MIXING WITH RAIN. NO ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET
ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.

[cheezyWXguy]

I have the feeling us in the northern DFW area maybe seeing some freezing rain or sleet mix in with our rain today. I woke up this morning to see a temp of around 37, now its 35 and the temp dropped about 6/10 of a degree in the last 10 minutes.

NWS says some light sleet is being reported mixed in with the rain. I've been inside all day so I can't confirm any here in Plano.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
106 PM CST MON JAN 21 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-212100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
106 PM CST MON JAN 21 2008

.NOW...
SHOWERS PRODUCING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN ARE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE A FEW HUNDREDTHS
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT
SLEET HAS BEEN REPORTED MIXING WITH RAIN. NO ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET
ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.

Yeah i was pretty sure a little earlier there was a little sleet mixing in with some of the heavier rain, but im not positive

[Kelarie]

We (Austin metro) now have sleet/freezing rain in our forecast for the middle of the week. That pretty much guarantees it won't happen now ...

DONT SAY THAT!!! I want more time off work!!!!

[Portastorm]

We (Austin metro) now have sleet/freezing rain in our forecast for the middle of the week. That pretty much guarantees it won't happen now ...

DONT SAY THAT!!! I want more time off work!!!!

Don't we all!

Sorry Kelarie ... but I would say our chances of frozen stuff (at least the way its looking right now) are pretty slim. I really don't mind as this kind of pattern, if our temps were below freezing, would produce one of those dreadful ice storms. I'd much rather have sleet and/or snow.

[Portastorm]

Read this discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1012 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2008

.UPDATE...
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...HOWEVER SOME PATCHY FOG IS
STILL BEING REPORTED THIS HOUR. THE COLD FRONT HAS NOSED INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF LLANO...BURNET AND WILLIAMSON WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPS INDICATED UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. HAVE MADE MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP GRIDS FOR TODAY TO SHOW FALLING AND/OR
NEAR STEADY TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
********************

I truly don't wish to be a hardened critic of my local NWS forecasters as they generally do a fine job. But after reading this, I wish I had a quarter for every time over the last few winters they have underestimated the speed and strength of a winter cold front. I'd be able to buy a cup of coffee for everyone on S2K!

[gboudx]

I truly don't wish to be a hardened critic of my local NWS forecasters as they generally do a fine job. But after reading this, I wish I had a quarter for every time over the last few winters they have underestimated the speed and strength of a winter cold front. I'd be able to buy a cup of coffee for everyone on S2K!

How many cups of coffee do you think they say they could buy if they got one every time the models they use to based their forecasts on, underperformed during the Winter?

[Portastorm]

I truly don't wish to be a hardened critic of my local NWS forecasters as they generally do a fine job. But after reading this, I wish I had a quarter for every time over the last few winters they have underestimated the speed and strength of a winter cold front. I'd be able to buy a cup of coffee for everyone on S2K!

How many cups of coffee do you think they say they could buy if they got one every time the models they use to based their forecasts on, underperformed during the Winter?

Let me put it to you this way ... we'd have a major caffeine addiction problem in Texas!

Your point is well taken, gboudx.

[gboudx]

[
Let me put it to you this way ... we'd have a major caffeine addiction problem in Texas!

Your point is well taken, gboudx.

I don't know how the coffee is in other parts of Texas, but here, it's more like tea. You can almost see straight thru the pot. Being from New Orleans, we like our coffee from a bold roast, and strong. If I only had Dallas coffee to drink, I'd rather drink water.