ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Chacor]

CNN just had a live cross to Long Beach, NY. Pretty serious squall was going through... METAR from Long Island airport not far north showing 26kt sustained winds.

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 280543
97779 05420 10384 74909 30500 12040 06//8 /3776
RMK AF304 3409A IRENE OB 34
SWS = 52 KTS

[GoneBabyGone]

Couple qs:

1. Any way to approximate when the storm surge will hit certain areas?

2. Any predicted storm surge maps for the nj coast? Gf lives in belmar (evacuated, but they're already getting pounded and flooded there and the worst hasn't even come yet).

I did a search on SLOSH models because I know people have been posting about them, but I didn't find a link for you, just this:

petit_bois Wrote:
Can someone help me find the slosh models for the New Jersey to New England area?
Thanks...

Look through the Irene Discussion thread from page 295 and beyond. There are examples there.

Scroll all the way down to the bottom for New England
http://blog.myfoxhurricane.com/index.ph ... ew-england

Link no good. Can you repost? Tyia

[Dave]

DECODED RECCO OB 34

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 05:43Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 34
Observation Number: 34

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Sunday, 5:42Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 38.4N 74.9W
Location: 9 miles (15 km) to the E (86°) from Ocean City, MD, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 3,050 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 120° at 40 knots (From the ESE at ~ 46.0 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 6°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
700 mb Surface Altitude: 2,776 geopotential meters

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 52 knots (~ 59.8mph)

[Chacor]

Here's the official NHC surge probability map. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/psurgegraphics_at4.shtml?gm

[Adoquín]

Recon just found 94 knot winds at flight level, if what was posted in the other thread is correct. That translates to 91 mph at the surface. But there is another reading for 60 mph at surface. What is the explanation?

[Chacor]

The regular FL-sfc conversion hasn't applied with Irene for a while.

[Huckster]

I think oftentimes we are very prone to define tropical cyclones in a really subjective and even misleading way. Our delineations of tropical cyclones as "tropical storms" or "hurricanes" lead to confusion on the part of many people. For a kind of the attitude of many, I have heard a lot of the following generalities:

"Oh, it's a hurricane? Everything will necessarily be destroyed because the maximum sustained winds have reached 74 or 75 mph. I am terrified. Wait now, hold on. Ah, YES! It's not a hurricane any more! The wind is ONLY 73 mph. The storm is a dud. Something as weak as a tropical storm is not going to do much damage."

I, and many other hurricane veterans, likely see right through this kind of thinking. Please, anyone who reads this, do not think I am trying to belittle those who are not well acquainted with these storms. Baton Rouge, LA, where I am and have lived, has probably not endured SUSTAINED 74/75 mph winds since the September 20, 1909 hurricane, a storm mostly forgotten except on microfilm newspaper accounts at the library. As far as I know Gustav in 2008 was the worst storm here since Betsy in 1965, and Gustav really did catch a lot of us by surprise, especially myself. 10, 12, 14 or more hours of 30-35 mph or higher with 70-100 mph gusts for a few hours during the peak can cause tremendous damage. Half a month or more without electricity is not pleasant. Roads blocked by mountains of seemingly exploded trees...well that is not much fun either.

All of us who live near the coasts need to understand and accept the fact that tropical cyclones are not a game. I do believe that we should, insofar as we can, educate our selves and not slip into complacency. God bless America and God have mercy on us all.

[supercane]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 280555
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...IRENE MOVING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WATER LEVELS RISING FROM
MARYLAND TO NEW YORK...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.1N 75.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE
38.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION ACCOMPANIED
BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...AND MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS
IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND APPROACHES NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. IRENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW
ENGLAND AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE
LOCATED OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA EAST OF THE CENTER.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

A SUSTAINED WIND OF 48 MPH...78 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 68 MPH...
109 KM/H...WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE
OBSERVING SITE NEAR NEWPORT NEWS VIRGINIA. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL OCCURRING AS FAR SOUTH AS DUCK NORTH
CAROLINA WHERE A SUSTAINED WIND OF 48 MPH...78 KM/H...AND A WIND
GUST OF 68 MPH...109 KM/H...WERE ALSO RECENTLY REPORTED.

WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RISING RAPIDLY IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER OF
IRENE...WITH RECENTLY OBSERVED STORM SURGE VALUES OF 3.2 FEET AT
OCEAN CITY MARYLAND...3.7 FEET AT LEWES DELAWARE...3.4 FEET AT CAPE
MAY NEW JERSEY...AND 3.5 FEET AT NEW YORK HARBOR.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT THUS FAR OF 14 INCHES REPORTED
AT BUNYAN NORTH CAROLINA.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE
OBSERVING SITE AT OCEAN CITY MARYLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE
OF 970 MB...28.63 IN.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD...INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND.
COASTAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK
SURGE OCCURS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND
PAMLICO SOUNDS...WATER LEVEL VALUES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
MORNING.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...
COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND
SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE
FORCE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...
WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...EXPECTED BY
MIDDAY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...EASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Adoquín]

She is then a true New Yorker

[Chacor]

DC reporting 30kt sustained at 2am. Tornado warning in effect for NYC per CNn.

[Dave]

hdobs 58 & 59 are missing and not in the archives at this time...

481
URNT15 KNHC 280610
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 60 20110828
055530 3748N 07512W 6963 02837 //// +110 //// 294045 046 038 000 01
055600 3747N 07513W 6967 02841 //// +105 //// 294046 048 038 000 01
055630 3745N 07515W 6969 02841 //// +103 //// 294050 050 037 000 01
055700 3743N 07516W 6966 02851 //// +105 //// 296049 050 037 001 01
055730 3742N 07518W 6963 02859 //// +105 //// 297049 049 036 000 01
055800 3740N 07519W 6969 02860 //// +104 //// 296051 052 036 000 01
055830 3738N 07520W 6966 02863 //// +106 //// 294052 052 035 001 01
055900 3737N 07522W 6967 02869 9712 +109 //// 290051 051 034 002 01
055930 3735N 07523W 6966 02873 9717 +107 //// 290052 053 031 001 01
060000 3733N 07524W 6965 02879 //// +105 //// 291053 054 031 001 01
060030 3732N 07526W 6970 02879 9723 +111 //// 291054 054 032 000 01
060100 3730N 07527W 6965 02888 9723 +115 //// 290053 054 032 001 01
060130 3728N 07528W 6969 02886 9727 +115 //// 290050 051 038 002 01
060200 3727N 07530W 6963 02899 9729 +116 //// 292051 051 040 002 01
060230 3725N 07531W 6967 02897 9735 +115 //// 293050 051 043 001 01
060300 3723N 07532W 6965 02903 9738 +114 //// 294048 049 042 001 01
060330 3722N 07534W 6966 02905 9746 +102 //// 296051 053 044 000 01
060400 3720N 07535W 6965 02910 //// +090 //// 296054 055 046 000 01
060430 3718N 07536W 6966 02912 //// +093 //// 297054 054 046 000 05
060500 3717N 07538W 6970 02908 //// +092 //// 297054 055 046 000 01
$$
;

[jinftl]

Luckily there won't be many locations that experience sustained Cat 1 winds....but ts winds with gusts near hurricane force could easily cause millions to lose power.

From 2am advisory:
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE
LOCATED OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA EAST OF THE CENTER.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

[Chacor]

Automated station at JFK reporting 43mph sustained now.

[Annie Oakley]

That Times Square Camera link has 3 cameras. Try the the other two. One has people partying and yelling and another is very high up on a building and you can really hear the wind.

[Adoquín]

if that track deviates just a little left at around middle NJ even w/o the hurricane wind the flooding situation in manhattan will be more serious. city folks should really keep a close eye on the track now.

[Tonic]

Long Island Power Authority is already reporting 53,000 customers without power....
http://www.lipower.org/stormcenter/outagemap.html

[DCal2K]

Talked to someone I know just 10 miles NE of Baltimore. He estimates 1 to 2 inches of rain so far from Irene, so luckily not everyone in her path was hit with heavy rain. Hope those who did get heavy rain were prepared.

[ROCK]

Long Island Power Authority is already reporting 53,000 customers without power....
http://www.lipower.org/stormcenter/outagemap.html

there will be more...once those trees come down....

[SunnyThoughts]

Currently low tide in NYC (2am) and around 4 foot of surge.