ATL: IKE Discussion

[jinftl]

Won't be hard at all for Ike to earn a place on this list...I believe Jeff Masters made an estimate earliert that this could be a $10 to $30 billion damage cost event...

Costliest known Atlantic hurricanes as of 2007
(2007 USD) Cost
(billions) Name Year
$81.2 Hurricane Katrina
$38.1 Hurricane Andrew
$30.4 Hurricane Wilma
$18.1 Hurricane Ivan
$16.2 Hurricane Charley
$15.23 Hurricane Agnes
$14.1 Hurricane Hugo
$10.5 Hurricane Rita
$10.4 Hurricane Frances
$9.35 Hurricane Betsy

[Texas Snowman]

Just read Jeff Masters' blog and all I can say is a quiet "wow".

Here's a couple of extremely sobering snippets:

The amount of water Ike has put in motion is about 50% greater than what Katrina did, and thus we can expect Ike's storm surge damage will be similar to or greater than Katrina's. The way we can estimate this damage potential is to compute the total energy of Ike's surface winds (kinetic energy). To do this, we must look at how strong the winds are, and factor in the areal coverage of these winds. Thus, we compute the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) by squaring the velocity of the wind and summing over all regions of the hurricane with tropical storm force winds or higher. This "Integrated Kinetic Energy" was recently proposed by Dr. Mark Powell of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division as a better measure of the destructive power of a hurricane's storm surge than the usual Category 1-5 Saffir-Simpson scale. For example, Hurricane Katrina hit Mississippi as a strong Category 3 hurricane, yet its storm surge was more characteristic of a Category 5 storm. Dr. Powell came up with a new scale to rate potential storm surge damage based on IKE (not to be confused with Hurricane Ike!) The new scale ranges from 1-6. Katrina and Wilma at their peaks both earned a 5.1 on this scale (Figure 2). At 9:30am EDT this morning, Ike earned a 5.6 on this scale, the highest kinetic energy of any Atlantic storm in the past 40 years.

And this...

The water level will continue to rise as Ike approaches Texas, and NOAA's experimental storm surge forecast (Figure 1) is calling for a 10% chance that the storm tide from Ike will reach 24-27 feet on the south and east sides of Houston.

What should Texas residents do?We must assume Ike will intensify to a Category 3 hurricane by landfall, which would likely do $20-$30 billion in damage. The chances of hundreds of people being killed in this storm is high if people do not heed evacuation orders to leave low-lying areas threatened by high storm surges. Ike's storm surge is going to be affect a huge area and be tremendously destructive.

[Brent]

[Derek Ortt]

I am including a statement in the nwhhc updates that the total destruction of the Texas coast at and east of landfall is expected, with possible exception of protected portion of galveston

[gatorcane]

this certainly seems like a potential major catastrophe in the making, especially for Houston and Galveston

[gatorcane]

some good news if this trend continues though...

NHC discussion snippet:

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN SINCE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
THE GFDL STILL MAKES IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE

[funster]

This is terrible! Only good news is Ike won't stick around and will be in Illinois by Sunday.

[KWT]

EVen with the protected part of Galveston I'm still betting the seawall is overtopped, if not by the surge by at least the waves given they are boradly above 20-25ft to the north of the center.

Hopefully this doesn't have time to ramp up but the NHC track is pretty much going to make this a cert for a top 10 most costly hjurricane ever position, its just where about it comes in that list now IMO...the surge is going to take out a huge chunk of the coast sadly, and given the huge size of the hurricane a very large areaof the coast is going to be in a state...

[MiamiensisWx]

some good news if this trend continues though...

NHC discussion snippet:

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN SINCE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
THE GFDL STILL MAKES IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE

It won't decrease the +20-25' surge values... the wind radii rivals Katrina in size.

[fasterdisaster]

Won't be hard at all for Ike to earn a place on this list...I believe Jeff Masters made an estimate earliert that this could be a $10 to $30 billion damage cost event...

Costliest known Atlantic hurricanes as of 2007
(2007 USD) Cost
(billions) Name Year
$81.2 Hurricane Katrina
$38.1 Hurricane Andrew
$30.4 Hurricane Wilma
$18.1 Hurricane Ivan
$16.2 Hurricane Charley
$15.23 Hurricane Agnes
$14.1 Hurricane Hugo
$10.5 Hurricane Rita
$10.4 Hurricane Frances
$9.35 Hurricane Betsy

This is adjusted for inflation just so everyone knows.

[baitism]

I wouldn't take too much stock in the intensity forecasts. Even the NHC states how unreliable they are...

[gatorcane]

Won't be hard at all for Ike to earn a place on this list...I believe Jeff Masters made an estimate earliert that this could be a $10 to $30 billion damage cost event...

Costliest known Atlantic hurricanes as of 2007
(2007 USD) Cost
(billions) Name Year
$81.2 Hurricane Katrina
$38.1 Hurricane Andrew
$30.4 Hurricane Wilma
$18.1 Hurricane Ivan
$16.2 Hurricane Charley
$15.23 Hurricane Agnes
$14.1 Hurricane Hugo
$10.5 Hurricane Rita
$10.4 Hurricane Frances
$9.35 Hurricane Betsy

This is adjusted for inflation just so everyone knows.

7 of those top 10 costliest systems made landfall in Florida with Katrina only as a CAT 1 though.

[jinftl]

would a landfall to the east of galveston reduce the storm surge threat some for houston/galveston area?

some good news if this trend continues though...

NHC discussion snippet:

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN SINCE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
THE GFDL STILL MAKES IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE

It won't decrease the +20-25' surge values... the wind radii rivals Katrina in size.

[tolakram]

[KWT]

MiamiensisWx, yep and not only that but those high surge values are going to be felt up and down the western gulf of Mexico coasts, even far away from the center your getting huge waves.

[HouTXmetro]

No offense to others but let's just hope Ike weakens or the track continues to shift east. Less people will be affected. I know that's no consolation to the Louisiana folks.

[MiamiensisWx]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 112051
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

A PAIR OF DROPSONDES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
FINALLY PROVIDED SOME HARD DATA TO SUPPORT THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY...WITH LOWER-LAYER MEAN WINDS OF 96 KT...WHICH ADJUST TO
80 KT AT THE SURFACE. AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE SMALL INNER
WIND MAXIMUM HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED...AND THE INNERMOST RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS IS NOW AROUND 60 NMI. FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WINDS THERE
ARE ABOUT 100 KT...AND NEARLY THAT STRONG OUT TO AT LEAST 100 NMI.
AS THE INNER WIND MAXIMUM DISSIPATED...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE ROSE TO
ABOUT 954 MB...BUT HAS SINCE FALLEN TO 950 MB.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN SINCE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
THE GFDL STILL MAKES IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. FACTORS INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE THE LARGE BROAD WIND FIELD...STRONG WINDS OVER
AREAS OF LIMITED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PATH OF
IKE...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS THAT IS FORCING DESCENT
AND CREATING DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. INDEED...
CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF IKE HAS BEEN RATHER THIN FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. HOWEVER...THIS LATTER UPPER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IKE ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...AND IN THIS
CONFIGURATION WOULD PROVIDE AN UPPER PATTERN MORE CONDUCIVE TO
STRENGTHENING RIGHT BEFORE LANDFALL. CURRENTLY THE OUTFLOW IS VERY
WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL GUIDANCE.

IKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...AND IKE IS EXPECTED TO GENTLY RECURVE
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN 48-72 HOURS. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...AND IS RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THROUGH LANDFALL. AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD...A SLIGHT BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT IS EXPECTED
PRIOR TO THE BEGINNING OF RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...BUT IS STILL JUST LEFT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE AVERAGE 36-HOUR
OFFICIAL FORECAST ERROR IS ABOUT 80 NMI.

BECAUSE OF THE VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...IKE
WILL CREATE A STORM SURGE WELL IN EXCESS OF WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM OF ITS INTENSITY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 26.0N 89.4W 85 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 26.6N 90.9W 90 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 27.6N 93.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 29.0N 95.0W 105 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 95.5W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 14/1800Z 37.0N 90.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 15/1800Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/112051.shtml

EXCELLENT NHC DISCUSSION... it's pertinent for all residents.

This one will likely NOT be weakening at landfall, for what it's worth.

[simplykristi]

UGH! I don't like that path. I hope that everyone in the Houston/Galveston area is safe!

Kristi

[Tireman4]

No offense to others but let's just hope Ike weakens or the track continues to shift east. Less people will be affected. I know that's no consolation to the Louisiana folks.

Remember, this storm is so huge...we (Houston) could still feel Hurricane force winds even if it does track east of the current NHC track.

[HurryKane]

MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:

SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA AND GALVESTON BAYS...15 TO 20 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTAL AREAS FROM MATAGORDA TO HIGH ISLAND INCLUDING
GALVESTON ISLAND...12 TO 16 FEET

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING HIGH TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING
EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL
FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION
DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND
DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES
LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE
SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET
FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY
FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY
BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH
MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK
CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO
REPAIR.

This just made me tear up for you Texans. God be with all of you.