ATL: IKE Discussion

[fasterdisaster]

Even if it were to make landfall east of Galveston it would have to be more than 30 miles away for them to avoid hurricane winds.

[Stormcenter]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-ft.html

WSW jog?

Don't get me excited.....it's just a wobble right?

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=9

[hiflyer]

After 25 years down in SoFla I have one question...why do most of these storms do their US landfall at night? Is it written in code somewhere? I've done a few of these and I would far prefer a day passage over a night transit...but the NHC says 0100 on the coast....

[CoCo2]

Ok, let me remind everyone again that I'm an amateur. But that being said, it sure looks to me on the water vapor loops that the center of the storm is much further north?

Boy sure feels that way, should have seen the rain and the wind that just went through upper Plaquemines Parish. The rain/wind band lasted about 10 minutes and I'm sure gusted to 60mph. Crazy! Tonite is going to be rough.

[KWT]

Stormcenter, it probably is, recon does show that its moved more or less westward since the lass pass but that probably means very little and will no doubt get corrected down the road.

[jinftl]

seems unlikely to dodge that big of a bullet at this point...landfall further west than rita



weather offices inland are on top of the potential inland effects. From NWS Shreveport

TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PART OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS...MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CLARKSVILLE TEXAS...TO
TEXARKANA ARKANSAS...TO NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA.

Even if it were to make landfall east of Galveston it would have to be more than 30 miles away for them to avoid hurricane winds.

[weunice]

After 25 years down in SoFla I have one question...why do most of these storms do their US landfall at night? Is it written in code somewhere? I've done a few of these and I would far prefer a day passage over a night transit...but the NHC says 0100 on the coast....

Gustav made landfall close to daylight (I dont remember if it was before or after). Baton Rouge got the worst of it during the afternoon.

[luvcanescarol]

I would really like to see Ike's historical track, from his birth til now, in satellite photos. Does anyone have that?

[MiamiensisWx]

One small consolation for Galveston Bay:

If Ike makes landfall directly on Galveston and the mouth of the bay, the large wind radii and RMW would imply that the greatest surge values would occur farther east (closer to High Island). Of course, this is contingent on the landfall location and RMW size. If the RMW shrinks (while the wind radii remains as large as the current situation), Galveston Bay would experience the largest surge values. This will be VERY important...

Houston/Galveston area members, PAY attention to this point... do not be complacent in the future if Ike's greatest surge occurs farther east.

[HouTXmetro]

Stormcenter, it probably is, recon does show that its moved more or less westward since the lass pass but that probably means very little and will no doubt get corrected down the road.

Yeah, it more than likely will correct itself and when it does we are all going to swear it's made the north turn. But per both satellites and recon it did do a big jog west and possibly WSW.

[jinftl]

wilma and bulk of katrina were day events...as evidenced by the amount of video clips people have posted from both on youtube etc

After 25 years down in SoFla I have one question...why do most of these storms do their US landfall at night? Is it written in code somewhere? I've done a few of these and I would far prefer a day passage over a night transit...but the NHC says 0100 on the coast....

[rtd2]

not much blue(water) visible

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/in ... tion=1000m

[KWT]

The other thing to note is the surge is already starting to build up now in SE Texas, nothing too severe but it will only increase as the system works its way towards the coastline.

Just praying everyone comes out ok...

[KWT]

One small consolation for Galveston Bay:

If Ike makes landfall directly on Galveston and the mouth of the bay, the large wind radii and RMW would imply that the greatest surge values would occur farther east (closer to High Island). Of course, this is contingent on the landfall location and RMW size. If the RMW shrinks (while the wind radii remains as large as the current situation), Galveston Bay would experience the largest surge values. This will be VERY important...

Houston/Galveston area members, PAY attention to this point... do not be complacent in the future if Ike's greatest surge occurs farther east.

VEry good point, though I suspect in this case either way the Galveston Sewall is going to gt over topped to some extent, its just a matter of how badly I reckon at the moment.

[jinftl]

not sataellite images...but nhc graphical display really shows the wind field blossoming in the loop..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al09/loop_R.shtml

I would really like to see Ike's historical track, from his birth til now, in satellite photos. Does anyone have that?

[luvcanescarol]

That's really interesting. Thank you for posting it!

[O Town]

Water vapor loop showing dry air still to the N and W of Ike.

[cheekygeek]

I would really like to see Ike's historical track, from his birth til now, in satellite photos. Does anyone have that?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26295161/

[jinftl]

it is a great review of where we have been so far with ike too....and the graphics the nhc use give it almost 'cartoonish' quality which is ironic since we are tracking a beast!

That's really interesting. Thank you for posting it!

[Rod Hagen]

NHC on target again 4-5 days out...kudos again they need to start 7 day forecast on future storms

4 days out they had landfall at 27.5N 97.0W, rtd2.

They now have it at 29.0N 95.0W

There has been a consistent underestimation of the northern movement by about .5º in just about every 12 hour forecast. That is why the track keeps shifting north.

Not bad, but if you add a couple of extra days the difference gets pretty substantial.

Cheers

Rod