ATL: IKE Discussion

[dwg71]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12


warming cloud tops and more dry air near the center

highly doubt recon finds anything more than a 75kt cat 1

Could improve core and ramp up, but time to get to a cat 4 is getting smaller and smaller and appears surface center and flight level are not stacked.

[jinftl]

i would think that if he is really about to ramp up than the nw and sw quadrants have to start looking more like the ne and se ones....improved symmetry would be a sign

Eyewall on its way to being closed:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

It certainly looks like it is strengthening on the S and SE side from that graphic.

[Sanibel]

Center looks like it is spinning better and tightening up a little.

[alicia83]

I am more than a little dismayed at there being no evacuation plans for Houston due to the delay of evacuating coastal areas.

[fasterdisaster]

highly doubt recon finds anything more than a 75kt cat 1

You've said this like 3 times now and every time it's still a 100 mph Cat 2.

[KWT]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
highly doubt recon finds anything more than a 75kt cat 1

Recon has been constantly finding FL winds of around 100kts in the Ne quadrant during its passes, so still a 85kt cat-2, theres been no strengthening, nor has there been any weakening.

[jinftl]

just the fact that people are fleeing in droves enough to cause traffic should be a tip off i would think....and if they were in a positon to answer the question, they know the deal...

Apparently some people are not evacuating the Galveston area because of the Rita evacuation debacle...someone needs to get on TV and read that NWS bulletin to them.

They will die if they don't leave.

[dwg71]

highly doubt recon finds anything more than a 75kt cat 1

You've said this like 3 times now and every time it's still a 100 mph Cat 2.

No they didnt, and even admitted so - something to the effect we could find nothing to support a 85kt intensity setting. This is one time they are out when there is not any real convection to report really high winds.

[fasterdisaster]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12


warming cloud tops and more dry air near the center

highly doubt recon finds anything more than a 75kt cat 1

Could improve core and ramp up, but time to get to a cat 4 is getting smaller and smaller and appears surface center and flight level are not stacked.

I forget to add I have no idea what you're talking about. Warming cloud tops and dry air? Are you serious? It's called an EYE.

[Pebbles]

Kind of curious why they just flew around in circles a few times way NW of the storm... *ponders* They aren't having equipment problems are they? (that's if Pojo is around to answer and not on the plane )

[BigA]

At Buras, near the mouth of the Mississippi River, the wind is gusting to 52 (weather.com) or 50 (Wunderground). This is an enormous storm.

[fasterdisaster]

highly doubt recon finds anything more than a 75kt cat 1

You've said this like 3 times now and every time it's still a 100 mph Cat 2.

No they didnt, and even admitted so - something to the effect we could find nothing to support a 85kt intensity setting. This is one time they are out when there is not any real convection to report really high winds.

They did this once, and they said there was nothing they could find ON THE SURFACE. There were plenty of Cat 2 FL winds, and just because SFMR doesn't register it doesn't mean it's not there. Especially since now surface winds of Cat 1/2 border range are being found consistently.

[jinftl]

Maybe the windfield would become more symmetric...with the sw and nw side filling out to be more in line with se and ne

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 90SW 140NW.
34 KT.......230NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.

The larger SW side of the storm certainly looks healthier this evening. Maybe the dry air is dissipating.

If Ike gains symmetry, will it become even larger?

[RL3AO]

Kind of curious why they just flew around in circles a few times way NW of the storm... *ponders* They aren't having equipment problems are they? (that's if Pojo is around to answer and not on the plane )

My guess is they were just waiting for NOAA2 to make their fix.

[MHurricanes]

Hmm, I see the eye is still open based on the last recon data that came in.... not strengthening in the short term that's for sure...

True but then again recon also shows this has just the one eyewall, there has been a change in terms of the structrue of Ike over the previous 12hrs, it remains to be seen whether these will bring strengthening or not.

KW, We all tomorrow to watch this serious storm. And it's a big one.

- MHurricanes

[dwg71]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12


warming cloud tops and more dry air near the center

highly doubt recon finds anything more than a 75kt cat 1

Could improve core and ramp up, but time to get to a cat 4 is getting smaller and smaller and appears surface center and flight level are not stacked.

I forget to add I have no idea what you're talking about. Warming cloud tops and dry air? Are you serious? It's called an EYE.

Did you even click the link?? look at all the cold purple cloud tops and then see how the slowly diminish, not gone, but far less than a few hours ago.

[shah8]

Look dwg71: You.are.acting.like.a.troll. And spouting wrong stuff all the time!

It's not a category 1 storm, and I suspect you know this. If you didn't you have no business contradicting easily available and obviously correct data.

[attallaman]

OT:
Can anyone here recommend a good hurricane tracking site that's free, no annual fee?

PM incoming with info

Thanks for the info.

[HurricaneFreak]

Jim Cantore mentioned earlier today that vulnerable areas that could flood easily like New Orleans is Houston.And Steve said that thre could be a lot of damage cause many houston homes dont have hurricane resistant homes or shutters.

[KWT]

Convection is weakneing but doesn't really mean much because before we all know the core could be sorting itself out...

Note that whilst convection has weakened, the overall structure has improved in the previous 12hrs or so.

NHC would have downgraded Ike if they didn't think it was 85kts anymore...that should end that debate IMO.