CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[southerngale]

I personally think the Clips is going to be the closest to being correct of all the models at this particular time. No need to flame me... I know there are almost no people that agree with me and I'll be more than happy to be wrong about this.

The CLP5 isn't really a model though. It's based on climatology.

[ROCK]

A lot of the 12z GFS ensembles are showing the same sort of turn near or after landfall in northern Mexico

hmmmm wonder if they are sniffing out something?

[Stormavoider]

I personally think the Clips is going to be the closest to being correct of all the models at this particular time. No need to flame me... I know there are almost no people that agree with me and I'll be more than happy to be wrong about this.

I disagree with you untill the 3 day forcast point.

[HurricaneRobert]

I personally think the Clips is going to be the closest to being correct of all the models at this particular time. No need to flame me... I know there are almost no people that agree with me and I'll be more than happy to be wrong about this.

Are you joking? (Not flaming. Honest question.)

[sau27]

i just read that the clip is based on climatology but what exactly does that mean. Is it not using information about the present steering currents?

[mgpetre]

I personally think the Clips is going to be the closest to being correct of all the models at this particular time. No need to flame me... I know there are almost no people that agree with me and I'll be more than happy to be wrong about this.

Are you joking? (Not flaming. Honest question.)

I'm not joking at all. I still think there is something about this particular ULL and its movement that the models are just missing. I don't really have enought concrete evidence to say anything other than I have this hunch that the ULL just isn't going to ride around the ridge all the way into MX, but rather will linger in the gulf and then enter TX just north of Brwnsville. At this point I believe Deans track will take a more NNW motion and the models will have to change. Not a joke, just a hunch. And this is not a hunch that anyone should worry about, my gut is wrong 90% of the time... hell, I've been married more than once.

[theworld]

[Brent]

HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
2100 UTC SUN AUG 19 2007

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM DANGRIEGA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
MEXICO.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER IS REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE
NORTHWARD IS DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN JAMAICA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS IN THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN BELIZE...AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN BELIZE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 76.8W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 420SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 76.8W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 76.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N 79.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.4N 83.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.0N 86.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.9N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.5N 96.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 23.0N 101.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 76.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[vacanechaser]

026
WTNT34 KNHC 192044
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DEAN SCRAPING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
JAMAICA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM DANGRIEGA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
MEXICO.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER IS REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE
NORTHWARD IS DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN JAMAICA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS IN THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN BELIZE...AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN BELIZE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...
80 KM...SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A MOTION
BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEAN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TOMORROW.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...17.3 N...76.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DEAN SCRAPING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
JAMAICA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM DANGRIEGA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
MEXICO.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER IS REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE
NORTHWARD IS DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN JAMAICA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS IN THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN BELIZE...AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN BELIZE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...
80 KM...SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A MOTION
BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEAN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TOMORROW.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...17.3 N...76.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

[mutley]

I personally think the Clips is going to be the closest to being correct of all the models at this particular time. No need to flame me... I know there are almost no people that agree with me and I'll be more than happy to be wrong about this.

At least you're bold enough to say what you really think. I admire that. And hey, if it turns out that way, you'll be famous here.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just found a graphic that includes MANY more models than the one I posted above. Here is a look at it...



link to where I found it: http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... stormNum=3

[Stormavoider]

i just read that the clip is based on climatology but what exactly does that mean. Is it not using information about the present steering currents?

Its based on where storms have gone historically from Deans position at this time of year.

[Blown Away]

Is there a link to the Jamaica radar?

[vacanechaser]

still forecasting a cat 5


612
WTNT24 KNHC 192043
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
2100 UTC SUN AUG 19 2007

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM DANGRIEGA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
MEXICO.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER IS REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE
NORTHWARD IS DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN JAMAICA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS IN THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN BELIZE...AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN BELIZE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 76.8W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 420SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 76.8W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 76.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N 79.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.4N 83.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.0N 86.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.9N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.5N 96.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 23.0N 101.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 76.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[vacanechaser]

and the discussion


National Hurricane Center Discussion
Data from the Plymouth State Weather Center.
Click here for more tropical weather information.


571
WTNT44 KNHC 192047
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT COMPLETED ITS MISSION...FINDING PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 144 KT...WITH PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 121 KT. ONE
OF THE LAST EYEWALL DROPSONDES GAVE A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 118 KT
DERIVED FROM THE LOWEST 150 METERS OF THE SOUNDING. IN SPITE OF A
GRADUAL PRESSURE RISE...THESE DATA INDICATE THAT 125 KT IS STILL A
GOOD INTENSITY ESTIMATE. CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS ARE APPARENT IN
MICROWAVE...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE...AND AIRCRAFT DATA...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER EYEWALL. SHORT-TERM
INTENSITY CHANGES WILL BE GOVERNED BY INNER-CORE PROCESSES THAT ARE
DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
WOULD FAVOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...AND DEAN COULD VERY WELL
BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17. THERE IS NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST THINKING...ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING
SOUTHWARD...WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS BUILDING THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH DEAN. THE UPPER LOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES WESTWARD AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
MAJOR PLAYER IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH...BUT STILL LIES TO
THE NORTH OF ALL THE MAJOR MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE HWRF. ALTHOUGH I
CANNOT EXPLAIN WHY...THE DETERMINISTIC RUN OF THE GFS IS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE ALMOST UNIFORMLY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE. BECAUSE MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS LIE TO THE SOUTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...
SOME ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK ARE POSSIBLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 17.3N 76.8W 125 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 17.8N 79.4W 130 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 18.4N 83.0W 135 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 19.0N 86.5W 140 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 19.9N 90.0W 80 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 22/1800Z 21.5N 96.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 23.0N 101.0W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Brent]

Track looks a bit further south, still predicting a Cat 5 but a Cat 1 after landfall.

[HurricaneRobert]

Oh. I think the NHC has done a superb job with this storm, predicting the areas in the most danger. Even the prodigal GFDL has returned after threatening New Orleans and Houston yesterday.

I think Dean will cross the Yucatan, and I don't think it will regain major hurricane status in th GOM.

[Brent]

HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT COMPLETED ITS MISSION...FINDING PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 144 KT...WITH PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 121 KT. ONE
OF THE LAST EYEWALL DROPSONDES GAVE A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 118 KT
DERIVED FROM THE LOWEST 150 METERS OF THE SOUNDING. IN SPITE OF A
GRADUAL PRESSURE RISE...THESE DATA INDICATE THAT 125 KT IS STILL A
GOOD INTENSITY ESTIMATE. CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS ARE APPARENT IN
MICROWAVE...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE...AND AIRCRAFT DATA...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER EYEWALL. SHORT-TERM
INTENSITY CHANGES WILL BE GOVERNED BY INNER-CORE PROCESSES THAT ARE
DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
WOULD FAVOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...AND DEAN COULD VERY WELL
BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17. THERE IS NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST THINKING...ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING
SOUTHWARD...WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS BUILDING THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH DEAN. THE UPPER LOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES WESTWARD AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
MAJOR PLAYER IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH...BUT STILL LIES TO
THE NORTH OF ALL THE MAJOR MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE HWRF. ALTHOUGH I
CANNOT EXPLAIN WHY...THE DETERMINISTIC RUN OF THE GFS IS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE ALMOST UNIFORMLY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE. BECAUSE MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS LIE TO THE SOUTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...
SOME ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK ARE POSSIBLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 17.3N 76.8W 125 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 17.8N 79.4W 130 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 18.4N 83.0W 135 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 19.0N 86.5W 140 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 19.9N 90.0W 80 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 22/1800Z 21.5N 96.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 23.0N 101.0W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

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