WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

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Re: Re:

#961 Postby aerology » Thu Oct 29, 2009 3:36 am

drdavisjr wrote:
StormingB81 wrote:Im just wondering what the cluster is ot the NE of this storm headed what looks to be NW. Is that part of the typhoon or another one blowing up.

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlsto ... mated.html


Yeah, good question. I think it is definitely part of the storm.


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I think the NE section is a part of the tropical moisture, that has gotten separated out of the storm, by the induction of fairly drier air over the past 24 hours, and did not get pulled in toward the eye. The Moon is crossing the equator, headed North, in the next 24 hours, that might put a little curl or S bend in the storm track, but with the rest of the surrounding air mass moving West and not showing any conflicting shear, I don't expect it to be very much of a swing. By the 3rd or 4th of November, the Lunar declination will be ~the same as Mirinae, and should start to effect a recurve North and East, about the time it makes landfall on the main land.
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#962 Postby oaba09 » Thu Oct 29, 2009 3:37 am

What time is the expected landfall on saturday?
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#963 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 29, 2009 3:37 am

Image

Not looking very impressive
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#964 Postby oaba09 » Thu Oct 29, 2009 3:41 am

It seems like the storm is "recovering"
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#965 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 29, 2009 3:41 am

Image

If this is a typhoon, this is a weird microwave image
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Re:

#966 Postby jumperitis » Thu Oct 29, 2009 3:43 am

HURAKAN wrote:Image

If this is a typhoon, this is a weird microwave image


what's happening to it?
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MIRINAE (23W) PAGASA=TYPHOON SANTI

#967 Postby ManilaTC » Thu Oct 29, 2009 3:48 am

Image

Image

Image

This image shows that it has indeed recovered... convection has restarted over the eastern sections...

check out the hot towers in the visible image!
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Re: Re:

#968 Postby drdavisjr » Thu Oct 29, 2009 3:52 am

oaba09 wrote:
drdavisjr wrote:My daughter has a Halloween party tomorrow at her school. I wonder in MMLA will be under a PSWS tonight???


Is the party at night? I highly suggest not to let her go.........


No, in the morning...
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MIRINAE (23W) PAGASA=TYPHOON SANTI

#969 Postby oaba09 » Thu Oct 29, 2009 3:53 am

ClarkEligue wrote:Image

Image

Image

This image shows that it has indeed recovered... convection has restarted over the eastern sections...

check out the hot towers in the visible image!


Yeah...It's starting to look good again...
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#970 Postby oaba09 » Thu Oct 29, 2009 4:03 am

Waiting for pagasa's 5 pm update......
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Re: Re:

#971 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Oct 29, 2009 4:07 am

wait. you know i read the same article about the moon and its effect on a storm. that's about lupit, and now a group of people is saying that they are the ones who made lupit veer away from luzon. they said that they had something on the moon that's why they were able to do that. and now someone is talking about the moon again. i might sound foolish but, does the moon really have something to do with a storm's movement or behavior?
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MIRINAE (23W) PAGASA=TYPHOON SANTI

#972 Postby ManilaTC » Thu Oct 29, 2009 4:12 am

do you have an article for that?

hahaha what effect would a celestial body 200k mi away be on a storm?
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#973 Postby ManilaTC » Thu Oct 29, 2009 4:20 am

here is the PAGASA Warning.

Severe Weather Bulletin Number FOUR
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Thursday, 29 October 2009 Typhoon "SANTI" continued moving towards Central Luzon.

Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 p.m.) 800 km East of Baler, Aurora
Coordinates: 15.8°N, 129.9°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 185 kph
Movement: West at 20 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Friday afternoon:
360 km East of Baler, Aurora
Saturday afternoon:
in the vicinity of Nueva Ecija or at
90 km North of Manila
Sunday afternoon:
580 km West of Manila

Signal No. 2
Aurora
Northern Quezon
Polillo Island

Signal No. 1
Isabela
Ifugao
Quirino
Benguet
Nueva Vizcaya
Pangasinan
Tarlac
Nueva Ecija
Pampanga
Bulacan
Rizal
Rest of Quezon
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MIRINAE (23W) PAGASA=TYPHOON SANTI

#974 Postby oaba09 » Thu Oct 29, 2009 4:21 am

Latest from PAGASA:
Image

Typhoon "SANTI" continued moving towards Central Luzon.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 p.m.) 800 km East of Baler, Aurora
Coordinates: 15.8°N, 129.9°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 185 kph
Movement: West at 20 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Friday afternoon:
360 km East of Baler, Aurora
Saturday afternoon:
in the vicinity of Nueva Ecija or at
90 km North of Manila
Sunday afternoon:
580 km West of Manila
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Re:

#975 Postby oaba09 » Thu Oct 29, 2009 4:22 am

ClarkEligue wrote:here is the PAGASA Warning.

Severe Weather Bulletin Number FOUR
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Thursday, 29 October 2009 Typhoon "SANTI" continued moving towards Central Luzon.

Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 p.m.) 800 km East of Baler, Aurora
Coordinates: 15.8°N, 129.9°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 185 kph
Movement: West at 20 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Friday afternoon:
360 km East of Baler, Aurora
Saturday afternoon:
in the vicinity of Nueva Ecija or at
90 km North of Manila
Sunday afternoon:
580 km West of Manila

Signal No. 2
Aurora
Northern Quezon
Polillo Island

Signal No. 1
Isabela
Ifugao
Quirino
Benguet
Nueva Vizcaya
Pangasinan
Tarlac
Nueva Ecija
Pampanga
Bulacan
Rizal
Rest of Quezon
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes


I expect signal warning to be raised over metro manila in PAGASA's 11 PM update later....
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Re: Re:

#976 Postby aerology » Thu Oct 29, 2009 4:26 am

dexterlabio wrote:wait. you know i read the same article about the moon and its effect on a storm. that's about lupit, and now a group of people is saying that they are the ones who made lupit veer away from luzon. they said that they had something on the moon that's why they were able to do that. and now someone is talking about the moon again. i might sound foolish but, does the moon really have something to do with a storm's movement or behavior?


Since you asked, I will give you a short glimpse at what I have been studying for the past 30 years... The gist of it is that the Lunar declinational tides in the atmosphere, are what is driving the Rossby wave patterns of global circulation....

The poles of the Earth are tilted to the axis of the solar system ~23 ½ degrees, giving us the changing seasons. The sun on the other hand is different it's axis of rotation is vertical, but the magnet poles are tilted ~12 degrees, so as it rotates on an average of 27.325 day period, the polarity of the magnetic fields felt via the solar wind, shifts from the result of the orientation determined by the position of the rotating magnetic poles of the sun.

The core of the moon has frozen, the outer core of the Earth is still molten, and is a concentration of the magnetically permeable materials that make up the earth. These pulses of alternating North then South magnetic field shifts has been going on since before the Earth condensed into a planet and then was later struck by a Mars sized object (so the current theory goes), that splashed off most of the crust. Most returned to the Earth, some was lost into interplanetary space, and some condensed into the moon. Somewhere in the process the center of mass of the moon gravitated toward the surface that faces the Earth, before it froze, causing that denser side to always face the Earth.

It is not the center of mass of the Earth that scribes the orbital path of the Earth about the sun but the center of mass of the composite Earth / moon barycenter that lies about 1,200 kilometers off of the center of mass of the Earth, always positioned between the center of the earth and the center of the Moon. So as the Moon rotates around the earth to create the lunar light phases, the center of mass of the earth goes from inside to out side, around the common barycenter. As the Moon moves North / South in it's declination, the center of mass of the earth goes the opposite direction to counter balance, around their common barycenter that scribes the smooth ellipse of the orbit around the sun. So really the Earth makes 13 loops like a strung out spring every year.

The magnetic impulses in the solar wind has driven the Moon / Earth into the declinational dance that creates the tides in phase in the atmosphere, because of the pendulum type movement the Moon hangs at the extremes of declination almost three days with in a couple of degrees then makes a fast sweep across the equator at up to 7 to 9 degrees per day. At these culminations of declination movement the polarity of the solar wind peaks and reverses, causing a surge in the reversal of the ion flux generated as a result. Because of the combination of both peak of Meridian flow surge in the atmosphere, and reversal of ion charge gradient globally occurs at the same time like clock work most severe weather occurs at these times.

Because of the semi boundary conditions caused by mountain ranges, the Rockies, Andes, Urals, Alps, Himalayas, that resulted in topographical forcing into a four fold pattern of types of Jet stream patterns, I had to use not a 27.325 day period but a 109.3 day period to synchronize the lunar declinational patterns into the data to get clearer repeatability than the same data set filtered by Lunar phase alone.

There is a pattern of 6554 days where in the inner planets, Mars, Earth, Venus, and Mercury, make an even number of orbital revolutions, and return to almost the same relative position to the star field.

By adding 4 days to this period I get 6558 days the time it takes the Moon to have 240 declinational cycles of 27.325 days, so that by using 6558 days as a synchronization period I get the lunar Declination angle, lunar phase, perigee / apogee cycle, and the relative positions of the inner planets to align from the past three (6558 day) cycles well enough that the average of the temperatures, and the totals of the precipitations give a picture of the repeating pattern, from the last three to forecast the next almost 18 year long string of weather related events, with a better accuracy than the forecast available for three to five days from NOW from conventional NWS / NOAA sources.

So by looking at the periods of declinational movement and the four fold pattern of Rossby wave propagation, while maintaining the inner planet synchronization. I get all of these influences in sync to look almost the same, as the current conditions, even to periods of hail, and tornado production.

When the outer planets are added into the mix, they are out of phase in regard to the inner planet / Lunar patterns, and their influences are not in Sync with these background patterns. There are lines of magnetic force that connect each planet to the sun, and these revolve around with the planets naturally.

As the Earth's orbit takes it between these outer planets and the sun (at Synodic conjunctions), the increase in magnetic fields carried via the solar wind, (to effect this outer planet coupling) is felt upon the Earth's magnetosphere, and results in a temporary increase in the pole to equator charge gradient then a discharge back to ambient levels (about a two week long up then down cycle time), how this interferes or combines with the “usual lunar / inner planet patterns” is determined by whether it is in, or out of phase with the background patterns.

During normal charge cycles more moisture is driven into the atmosphere carrying positive Ions, along the ITCZ, and in discharge cycle phases waves of free electrons, and negative ions are sent down from the poles into the mid-latitudes. Charge cycles inhibit precipitation amounts and discharge cycles produce increased precipitation amounts along existing frontal boundaries, due to changes in residual ion charge differences between the air masses.

There is a seasonal increase in magnetic fields coupled from the center of out galaxy to the sun that peaks in mid June (summer solstice), and then decreases till winter solstice. As the magnetic charging cycle associated with this build up in Northern hemisphere Spring, it brings on a bias for surges of positive ionized air masses, that produces surges of tornadoes in phase with the lunar declinational culminations, and other severe weather, will also be enhanced by Synodic conjunctions with outer planets, by the same increases of positively charged ions. The closer the timing of the conjunction to a peak lunar culmination the sharper the spike of production, like cracking a whip.

During discharge phases from summer solstice through fall in general, tropical storms manifest as large scale discharge patterns to ring the moisture, heat, and excess ions out of the tropical air masses. Outer planets conjunctions at these times help to build moisture reserves in the atmosphere, during their ion charge contribution, and enhance storms to category 4 and 5 levels when in phase with their discharge phase influences.
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MIRINAE (23W) PAGASA=TYPHOON SANTI

#977 Postby metenthusiast » Thu Oct 29, 2009 4:27 am

It seems like the forecasts are getting worse for Manila by the hour. I was scheduled for treatment tomorrow 3 PM (PST). I moved it again earlier, 10 AM. But I'm pretty sure I would still get caught by rain going home in the afternoon... :cry:
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#978 Postby drdavisjr » Thu Oct 29, 2009 4:36 am

From typhoon2000
6-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae.

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#979 Postby oaba09 » Thu Oct 29, 2009 4:44 am

moving westwards again

TPPN10 PGTW 290930

A. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE)

B. 29/0830Z

C. 16.1N

D. 129.9E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
29/0442Z 15.9N 130.7E MMHS


UEHARA
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MIRINAE (23W) PAGASA=TYPHOON SANTI

#980 Postby ManilaTC » Thu Oct 29, 2009 4:48 am

** WTPQ21 RJTD 290900 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0921 MIRINAE (0921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290900UTC 16.1N 129.7E FAIR
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 300900UTC 15.5N 124.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 310600UTC 15.5N 120.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 010600UTC 15.4N 115.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

haha this is nuts
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