ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#961 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:12 pm

In the BOC strengthening

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#962 Postby artist » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:12 pm

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Is everyone in shock? I haven't seen any new posts here for over 15minutes with models running? strange. Did the site go down?

everyone was leaving work. Just give it a few more hours. :P

Everyone in the path of Matthew, stay safe!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#963 Postby JTD » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:13 pm

You know,

Based on these latest model runs, it's questionable if Matthew even makes it near the lower 48.
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#964 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:13 pm

If this does go into the BOC. I wonder if this will head into Mexico? Texas? Kinda like Karl?
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#965 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:15 pm

as far as timing the low still in the gulf of honduras would make sense...for now im discounting BOC low....
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#966 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:15 pm

JTD wrote:You know,

Based on these latest model runs, it's questionable if Matthew even makes it near the lower 48.


Yea, I think the models are sensing that it may not make the trough connection. So that might be why they are sending it into the BOC, perhaps Mexico from there....
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Re:

#967 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:16 pm

Vortex wrote:as far as timing the low still in the gulf of honduras would make sense...for now im discounting BOC low....


That's Matthew in the BOC...12z GFS put it in the BOC as well just not as strong.
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#968 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:16 pm

H108...this run looks bad...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#969 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:17 pm

dare I say west of 90? :lol: :lol:
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#970 Postby x-y-no » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:18 pm

GFS is doing it again ... Matthew gets into the BOC and stalls, new low forms in the Gulf of Honduras - Matthew weakens & new low (Nicole?) strengthens ...

Just looks weird to me, but maybe some of the pro-mets can tell us if it's plausible.
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#971 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:19 pm

I wouldnt pay much attention to "matthews location" this run..look at the synoptics...
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#972 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:19 pm

3 separate lows in a training succession?

Trash this GFS run.
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Re:

#973 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:20 pm

AdamFirst wrote:3 separate lows in a training succession?

Trash this GFS run.


Lol why? The GFS has shown this for a few runs now as well has a lot of other models. Matthew gets into the BOC..."Nicole" may be a different story.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#974 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:22 pm

Matthew dissipating..."Nicole" forming?

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#975 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:22 pm

H126 sitting over gulf of honduras....now were back in business



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif
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Re:

#976 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:25 pm

Vortex wrote:H126 sitting over gulf of honduras....now were back in business



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif


New storm
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#977 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:25 pm

Ivam,Where is the culprirt for Nicole, from EPAC monsoon moisture?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#978 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:27 pm

cycloneye wrote:Ivam,Where is the culprirt for Nicole, from EPAC monsoon moisture?


Looks like the Monsoon low pressure stretching from the Pacific into the NW Caribbean.
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#979 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:27 pm

Im not so sure ivan...regardless its in the same spot as "matthew" was expected to be...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#980 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:27 pm

cycloneye wrote:Ivam,Where is the culprirt for Nicole, from EPAC monsoon moisture?



Left in the wake of 97E... :wink:
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