Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[Vortex]

very low pressures down there..Roatan just north of the coast of Honduras has a pressure of 29.65 and falling..



88 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 66%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 4 mph from the South
Pressure: 29.65 in (Falling

[Florida1118]

Accuweather still confident in nearly 5 days of winds gusting over 50mph...

[bvigal]

Also, please upload images before posting them. If a member posts a sat image or a model map, using the original link, then that image will eventually change and we'll have a disparity between the comments and the image. It's nice to be able to read a post a few hours, or even days, after it was posted and to be able to see the image that's being discussed.

Here's a few sites:

http://tinypic.com/
http://imageshack.us/
http://www.imagehosting.com/

Would some folks please consider what Southergale wrote, above, in the "Request from staff" thread? There are some GREAT graphics in this discussion, but they are mostly direct links, which will be meaningless and confusing by tomorrow, and forever after. Sometimes you do want to go back and read about a particular storm, and the thinking at the time. Or sometimes a day goes by and you can't get online to stay caught up. It's very frustrating to look at picture after picture of the present day's satellite, model run, ocean heat, shear, etc., wondering what it looked like when it was originally posted. Remember, this is a forum, not a chat.

[cycloneye]

Plenty of convection, but not concentrated in an area.In other words,it has work to do before it goes to the step towards a Tropical Cyclone.Image doesn't change as it was downloaded at imageshack.us.

[jim2cocoa]

Accuweather still confident in nearly 5 days of winds gusting over 50mph...

where?tampa s fl? who said it JB?

[Florida1118]

Accuweather still confident in nearly 5 days of winds gusting over 50mph...

where?tampa s fl? who said it JB?

Tampa area, I dont know who writes the forecast...

[ConvergenceZone]

Based upon its current appearance, I' thinking it's about 2 to 3 days away from a tropical depression. By that time it should be over Cuba or just off the coast of Florida.

[ericinmia]

JB Update at 4pm:
(Nicole to be) "...that a bundling of it would result in the kind of situation that would promote a rapid development situation."

Also, he talks about that storm that will follow in a week or so, that it will follow a similar path.

For whatever its worth...
-Eric

[fci]

JB sounds to be on the same page as others here with Nicole and then Otto a few days to a week later. Some even conject Paula to follow.

RI is the part that we don't want to hear.

[ConvergenceZone]

JB Update at 4pm:
(Nicole to be) "...that a bundling of it would result in the kind of situation that would promote a rapid development situation."

Also, he talks about that storm that will follow in a week or so, that it will follow a similar path.

For whatever its worth...
-Eric

I like JB, but based on the projected environment, there's absolutely not one ounce of evidence that supports RI.

[hurricaneCW]

On the contrary, numerous systems in that area have undergone RI, however with such a large circulation, any rapid development are RI would appear to be unlikely, but not impossible.

[ericinmia]

JB Update at 4pm:
(Nicole to be) "...that a bundling of it would result in the kind of situation that would promote a rapid development situation."

Also, he talks about that storm that will follow in a week or so, that it will follow a similar path.

For whatever its worth...
-Eric

I like JB, but based on the projected environment, there's absolutely not one ounce of evidence that supports RI.

I can go pull out many model runs the past week that have shown forms of RI. Just because the current runs don't show it, doesn't mean that a few days down the line we don't see it again... I learned years and years ago, that it's not good to talk in "absolute's"

[sandyb]

JB Update at 4pm:
(Nicole to be) "...that a bundling of it would result in the kind of situation that would promote a rapid development situation."

Also, he talks about that storm that will follow in a week or so, that it will follow a similar path.

For whatever its worth...
-Eric

I like JB, but based on the projected environment, there's absolutely not one ounce of evidence that supports RI.

then why are you here? the evidence is in the models hes is very up on what he talks about he does not tell something if there is no chance of it ever happening..If i were in SF I would watch and start getting ready along with us here in NC models show development and we are involved in that

[ConvergenceZone]

On the contrary, numerous systems in that area have undergone RI, however with such a large circulation, any rapid development are RI would appear to be unlikely, but not impossible.

True, numerous system have undergone RI in the area, but just because they are in the area does not mean they will undergo RI. The conditions have to be there. You can just tell by how slowly that it's getting norganized right now that there's no way it's going to undergo RI. In fact, it's not going to have enough time to do so...We don't even have a depression and may not until Tuesday or Wednesday. So at this point, no reason to even think that RI is going to occur....

[sandyb]

i enjoy this board but makes me mad with people start downing JB we all know he is good and everyone is always interested in what he has to say or it wouldnt get posted here on the site...

[ConvergenceZone]

then why are you here? the evidence is in the models hes is very up on what he talks about he does not tell something if there is no chance of it ever happening..If i were in SF I would watch and start getting ready along with us here in NC models show development and we are involved in that

Wait, I'm confused, I can't be here unless I expect RI? I didn't know that all of the models were expecting RI

[ConvergenceZone]

i enjoy this board but makes me mad with people start downing JB we all know he is good and everyone is always interested in what he has to say or it wouldnt get posted here on the site...

I actually like JB, I actually mentioned that above , but that doesn't mean that one has to agree 100% on what he says...He has an opinion just like the mets here may have a different opinion... Back on topic...

[cycloneye]

I notice that the comments are straying away from the theme of this thread. Lets not talk about any invididual and continue to make comments about the area in the NW Caribbean.

[jlauderdal]

cage match time for convergence zone and sandy b, 2nd cage match today...people sure are fiesty

[otowntiger]

GFDL appears rather strong with #1 at least a hurricane



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Doesn't look like a hurricane to me, maybe a middling t.s.