ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[NEXRAD]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


It's interesting to note that the upstream flow is backing more to a southerly flow with the influence of the trough starting to lessen in terms of a W to E dry air intrusion. You can tell by checking out how the low-mid level steering winds have shifted to a more Sly direction early today. Even more obvious is the KMLB and KJAX radars showing precipitation generally north of and offshore Cape Canaveral starting to build west. Meanwhile, there's not been much Eward progression for the western back-edge of the light to moderate rain across Southeast Florida. As the system wraps up today, this should foster a sharp precipitation boundary across Florida, with areas east of a line from about Everglades City to Lake Okeechobbee to perhaps Daytona Beach being under the threat for some heavy rainfall and squally conditions.

The RUC and local WRF models also suggest that the depression might wrap-up midday. These models have been very persistent over the last 12 hours or so in showing surface winds reaching 20 to 30 knots along the SE Florida metros this afternoon with higher gusts in intense convective bands (which these models have also been persistent with).

Based on the steering flow and Theta-E patterns, the system's surface low should track close to the TPC track. I'd not write TD16 off just yet. The latest satellite patterns are becoming interesting, and then the FL Straits have some very warm water. Recall, too, that 1999's Irene ramped-up quickly in this same region with a similar frontal boundary set-up - and Irene developed from a similar broad NW Caribbean low.

- Jay
South Florida

[HURAKAN]

Loop

[Evil Jeremy]

I know it's only a TD, but perhaps we should open up a "reports" thread like we do for all other tropical storms threatening land? It's been done for invests before.

[HURAKAN]

HPC 12z

[Aquawind]

I know it's only a TD, but perhaps we should open up a "reports" thread like we do for all other tropical storms threatening land? It's been done for invests before.

Good Idea we have alot of people in Florida concerned about rain.. I think the north will be even more serious..

[TheBurn]

[HURAKAN]

I know it's only a TD, but perhaps we should open up a "reports" thread like we do for all other tropical storms threatening land? It's been done for invests before.

Good Idea we have alot of people in Florida concerned about rain.. I think the north will be even more serious..

It's up - viewtopic.php?f=59&t=109573&hilit=

[otowntiger]

Given the signature on Florida radar indicating a clear demarcation of the front slicing southwest to northeast across the SE penninsula (a very straight line) would it be safe to say that if you are getting rain now you will continue to get rain for much of the day, but if its not raining where you are you probably won't get rain? I ask because it seems that the line that is drawn in the form of rain seems to be the real battle ground and the exact direction of storm. That southeastern slice seems to be where all the action will remain. Am I wrong?

[Aquawind]

Some precip may rotate around as it get's closer and with the usual daytime heating..

[HurricaneQueen]

Clear blue skies along the coast over here. Rain might make it later today as the "thing" gets closer..

Hi Neighbor!

After a day of off again, on again thunderstorms and downpours yesterday, we have had very little weather to speak of other than some light steady rain during the night (Total of about 1/2 inch). This morning is partly sunny with a light breeze and a cool temp of 75. Just what we needed! I'd say, so far #16 has been a non-event on the SW coast of Florida.

Lynn

P.S. Sorry if this in the wrong place. The "reports" thread was started as I was typing this-yes, I am slow.

[HURAKAN]

NOW:



23 HOURS AGO:

[Aquawind]

Well said Lynn! I soo want to feel that dry air at least..so close but yet sooo far..Looks like we will be waiting awhile for the real cold front though..as expected it's early yet.

[wxman57]

I see a ship report of 35kt SSE winds about 290 miles south of the low center. I have no doubt that as the squalls move north of Cuba that the pressure gradient between the low and the Bermuda High will result in a large area of TS winds well east of the center, and we'll have Nicole briefly before it merges with the front. It'll still produce TS-force winds all the way up to southern New England on Thu/Fri, but not as a tropical system.

[Aquawind]

Much more of an event up north then..especially with all of the rain they have had recently.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

SHIP1708 - MARITIME-ship
Wednesday Sep. 29 - 13:00 UTC
Air Temperature: 81°F
Dewpoint: 78°F
Wind: SW at 42 mph
Pressure: 999 mb
Weather: Heavy drizzle
Wave Height: 8 ft

SW of the Cayman Islands

[OuterBanker]

Went to the NWS site and we have eight hazardous weather conditions, geeze.

High wind, high surf warnings, flood, etc. Winds to 50, surf peaking at 15 to 20, 4 to 8 rain.

Just a little envious of Fl, you guys will be over this sooner.

At least Earl was out of here quickly, I'm afraid this will be worse and it doesn't even have a name.

[fci]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


It's interesting to note that the upstream flow is backing more to a southerly flow with the influence of the trough starting to lessen in terms of a W to E dry air intrusion. You can tell by checking out how the low-mid level steering winds have shifted to a more Sly direction early today. Even more obvious is the KMLB and KJAX radars showing precipitation generally north of and offshore Cape Canaveral starting to build west. Meanwhile, there's not been much Eward progression for the western back-edge of the light to moderate rain across Southeast Florida. As the system wraps up today, this should foster a sharp precipitation boundary across Florida, with areas east of a line from about Everglades City to Lake Okeechobbee to perhaps Daytona Beach being under the threat for some heavy rainfall and squally conditions.

The RUC and local WRF models also suggest that the depression might wrap-up midday. These models have been very persistent over the last 12 hours or so in showing surface winds reaching 20 to 30 knots along the SE Florida metros this afternoon with higher gusts in intense convective bands (which these models have also been persistent with).

Based on the steering flow and Theta-E patterns, the system's surface low should track close to the TPC track. I'd not write TD16 off just yet. The latest satellite patterns are becoming interesting, and then the FL Straits have some very warm water. Recall, too, that 1999's Irene ramped-up quickly in this same region with a similar frontal boundary set-up - and Irene developed from a similar broad NW Caribbean low.

- Jay
South Florida

GREAT to see you post, Jay!!!!!
You have always been a voice of reason on the board.
Please, don't be a stranger!!

[Vortex]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


It's interesting to note that the upstream flow is backing more to a southerly flow with the influence of the trough starting to lessen in terms of a W to E dry air intrusion. You can tell by checking out how the low-mid level steering winds have shifted to a more Sly direction early today. Even more obvious is the KMLB and KJAX radars showing precipitation generally north of and offshore Cape Canaveral starting to build west. Meanwhile, there's not been much Eward progression for the western back-edge of the light to moderate rain across Southeast Florida. As the system wraps up today, this should foster a sharp precipitation boundary across Florida, with areas east of a line from about Everglades City to Lake Okeechobbee to perhaps Daytona Beach being under the threat for some heavy rainfall and squally conditions.

The RUC and local WRF models also suggest that the depression might wrap-up midday. These models have been very persistent over the last 12 hours or so in showing surface winds reaching 20 to 30 knots along the SE Florida metros this afternoon with higher gusts in intense convective bands (which these models have also been persistent with).

Based on the steering flow and Theta-E patterns, the system's surface low should track close to the TPC track. I'd not write TD16 off just yet. The latest satellite patterns are becoming interesting, and then the FL Straits have some very warm water. Recall, too, that 1999's Irene ramped-up quickly in this same region with a similar frontal boundary set-up - and Irene developed from a similar broad NW Caribbean low.

- Jay
South Florida

GREAT to see you post, Jay!!!!!
You have always been a voice of reason on the board.
Please, don't be a stranger!!

I second that..Good to see you around Jay...

[canes04]

Am I missing something? I'm no expert, but it appears the center is relocating near 21 and 81 and drifting North.

[invest man]

just curious, does anyone here think that nhc will ever pull the trigger for nicole on this system?