ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[southerngale]

Hmm..

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif

That's looking more likely - move to the mid to SW LA coast, stall, drop south into the Gulf and loop around a bit, then back to the north and possibly NE. SW movement into Texas looking less likely. Guess I'll convert my dead lawn to a rock garden...

I don't understand. That new map shows the L sitting right on top of SE TX & SW LA for 4 out of the 5 days on there. Wouldn't that mean a lot of rain for SE TX? I looked at it and saw hope, then everyone started sticking forks in our rain.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 012040
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 27 20110901
203030 2541N 09200W 9588 00451 0086 +260 +238 324015 015 023 000 00
203100 2539N 09200W 9590 00449 0086 +260 +238 323015 015 024 000 00
203130 2537N 09200W 9588 00449 0085 +259 +243 324015 015 024 000 00
203200 2535N 09200W 9589 00448 0083 +259 +240 318014 015 023 000 00
203230 2533N 09200W 9587 00448 0083 +260 +238 318014 014 022 000 00
203300 2531N 09200W 9589 00449 0084 +259 +240 317013 013 023 000 00
203330 2529N 09200W 9591 00447 0085 +261 +235 319014 014 023 000 00
203400 2528N 09200W 9586 00453 0086 +260 +237 321014 014 023 000 00
203430 2526N 09200W 9589 00451 0087 +261 +237 322014 014 022 000 00
203500 2524N 09200W 9590 00451 0087 +261 +235 319014 014 023 000 00
203530 2522N 09200W 9590 00452 0088 +261 +235 316014 014 023 000 00
203600 2520N 09200W 9591 00449 0088 +262 +233 318014 014 024 000 00
203630 2518N 09200W 9590 00452 0088 +261 +238 320015 016 025 000 00
203700 2516N 09200W 9590 00452 0089 +260 +244 323015 015 025 001 00
203730 2514N 09200W 9588 00455 0090 +262 +239 323015 015 024 000 00
203800 2513N 09200W 9588 00454 0090 +262 +233 317015 015 024 000 00
203830 2511N 09200W 9588 00454 0090 +263 +232 315015 016 023 000 00
203900 2509N 09200W 9588 00455 0091 +262 +236 313015 016 023 000 00
203930 2507N 09200W 9588 00457 0092 +262 +237 310014 015 024 000 00
204000 2505N 09200W 9588 00457 0092 +262 +240 311013 014 024 000 00

[CYCLONE MIKE]

PT are ya'll under a FF watch over there? The BTR office usually plays things pretty conservative until we have a named storm then update the forecast around that and what the models show. Should see rainfall totals go up even more into tomorrow once this becomes Lee.

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KWBC 012047
97779 20474 51248 91810 04600 27013 26242 /0009 49905 92300
RMK NOAA2 01HHA INVEST OB 08 KWBC

[Tireman4]

I am going to run 5 miles. I need some therapy. Maybe things will change when I get back at 5 pm. Sigh....( back yard is dirt. front yard is yellow, trees are dead and I am bewildered)

[underthwx]

Don't turn your back on 93L yet Texas....

[lrak]

"No rain for YOU"

We have had wild hogs coming onto our property for water. And I live in the city limits. Everytime I water just a bit they come rutting up my brown grass.

[Nederlander]

Hmm..

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif

That's looking more likely - move to the mid to SW LA coast, stall, drop south into the Gulf and loop around a bit, then back to the north and possibly NE. SW movement into Texas looking less likely. Guess I'll convert my dead lawn to a rock garden...

I don't understand. That new map shows the L sitting right on top of SE TX & SW LA for 4 out of the 5 days on there. Wouldn't that mean a lot of rain for SE TX? I looked at it and saw hope, then everyone started sticking forks in our rain.

That was my first reaction too. I think the problem is that most of the precip will be on the eastern side of the coc unless it can get its act together and wrap around.. Still seems to be moving wnw. The longer it does that, the better chance we will have..

[petit_bois]

So Euro jumped east too, looks like a consensus forming toward a north gulf coast landfall.

from looking at all the models the consensus is this isn't going much of anywhere for quite a few days. complete colapse of all steering. A drifter. Likely to drift poleward... maybe.. sorta... maybe not.

Obviously most of the rain should be falling on the east side. Like the NWS said...
"threat of EXTREMELY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL"

[Nikki]

Don't turn your back on 93L yet Texas....

We already have! Maybe we will have another chance later down the line!

[setxwxgurl]

I've got my fingers crossed, toes crossed, arms crossed, legs crossed and eyes crossed all while doing a rain dance in my front yard - I kinda look like the spagetti models!!

[Dave]

Clouds will be back...had to restart GE...

[lostsole]

To those worried about those 10" or 15" rain predictions and having a heart attack. Just remember these are the same models that predict the blizzards that never happen in the deep south during Winter time. As I always say I'll believe it when I see it. IMO

10-15" of rain is surely possible and most likely. Look back at rainfall totals from past storms, almost every spring we get storms that drop 12+ inches of rain down here. Rainfall down here is a lot different that up north, when it rains, it REALY rains!

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 012050
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 28 20110901
204030 2503N 09200W 9588 00455 0091 +262 +237 309012 013 023 000 00
204100 2501N 09200W 9588 00457 0091 +262 +236 310012 013 023 000 00
204130 2459N 09200W 9591 00452 0091 +262 +235 313014 014 023 000 00
204200 2457N 09200W 9588 00455 0092 +261 +237 315013 014 024 001 00
204230 2455N 09200W 9589 00455 0092 +263 +228 325015 015 025 000 00
204300 2453N 09200W 9588 00453 0089 +261 +228 318016 016 024 000 00
204330 2451N 09159W 9588 00454 0090 +262 +227 322016 016 026 000 00
204400 2449N 09159W 9587 00454 0091 +261 +226 325015 016 025 000 03
204430 2447N 09158W 9589 00457 0093 +257 +238 313012 014 /// /// 03
204500 2446N 09156W 9590 00453 0091 +256 +236 304013 016 031 000 00
204530 2446N 09154W 9587 00457 0092 +251 +237 327011 013 /// /// 03
204600 2447N 09152W 9589 00453 0091 +251 +232 308011 013 025 000 03
204630 2448N 09151W 9591 00448 0088 +256 +235 276010 012 025 000 03
204700 2450N 09150W 9589 00452 0089 +255 +237 274013 014 026 000 03
204730 2451N 09148W 9586 00453 0088 +258 +234 268013 014 026 000 00
204800 2453N 09147W 9590 00451 0088 +258 +237 267014 015 024 000 00
204830 2454N 09145W 9585 00454 0088 +258 +240 287013 014 023 000 00
204900 2456N 09144W 9589 00451 0088 +261 +236 298014 014 023 000 00
204930 2457N 09143W 9590 00451 0088 +261 +237 299013 013 023 000 00
205000 2459N 09141W 9591 00448 0086 +261 +238 301012 012 022 000 00

[SouthDadeFish]

Latest visible:



Large moisture envelope with this one.

[BigA]

Recon is finding lots of west winds, so the circulation is closed, but it is very broad still.

[SouthDadeFish]

Anyone know why the NHC isn't classifying this yet? Yes the circulation is broad, but so was Nicole last year...

[lebron23]

local met in houston already dismissing this system...says its not coming here basically...

[Dave]

[Turtle]

Oddly my chances of rain have bumped up from 20 to 30% for one day. Perhaps they think it may move far enough north to where we may get the north/left edge of the rain.