ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

Are we possibly see genesis occurring before our eyes tonight? That MLC is heading NW towards the LLC and plenty of convection is firing around the LLC. It really seems to be trying to get its act together. Would be ahead of schedule by a couple of days.

Sure does look like its trying to make a run at getting its feet underneith itself and off to the races! If 3 - 4 degrees further north i'd say tomorrow, but right now i'd guess Thurs. a.m.

[JaxGator]

Are we possibly see genesis occurring before our eyes tonight? That MLC is heading NW towards the LLC and plenty of convection is firing around the LLC. It really seems to be trying to get its act together. Would be ahead of schedule by a couple of days.

It looks that way after looking at the loop a couple of times. The heat content for sure is helping and the anti-cyclone aloft is also helping with outflow.

[AutoPenalti]

DMAX is going to take over soon, maybe Capt. Stewart will bump it up to 80/90?

[Kingarabian]

I have a question to the folks who live in Florida:

Do you feel that Floridians have become a bit laxed and may be less prepared for a hurricane/major hurricane hit due to the 10 year drought?

[Nederlander]

Nice loop showing what appears to be the system trying to stack

[BobHarlem]

I have a question to the folks who live in Florida:

Do you feel that Floridians have become a bit laxed and may be less prepared for a hurricane/major hurricane hit due to the 10 year drought?

Yes, particularly the folks new to Florida since 2004/2005.

[WeatherEmperor]

I have a question to the folks who live in Florida:

Do you feel that Floridians have become a bit laxed and may be less prepared for a hurricane/major hurricane hit due to the 10 year drought?

I may be a bit rusty but if it comes yhis way and my mind really goes into hurricane mode, I will be as ready as I have ever been. The last time I went through a hurricane, I had nothing really to protect. Now I have a wife and 2 year old to protect. I see people in my neighborhood brushing 99L off like its nothing. A bit scary

[chaser1]

Nice loop showing what appears to be the system trying to stack

Oh GAWD... this thing is seriously blowing out outflow to its N.E. and S.W.! Big time difluence aloft

[SouthFLTropics]

I have a question to the folks who live in Florida:

Do you feel that Floridians have become a bit laxed and may be less prepared for a hurricane/major hurricane hit due to the 10 year drought?

Yes, particularly the folks new to Florida since 2004/2005.

I would agree with this statement...being a 4 generation native I've seen my fair share of storms and heard stories about many others. There are many new transplanted residents that have moved here over the past 11 years that have never been through a storm. The complacency and lack of experience is definitely there.

[NDG]

I have a question to the folks who live in Florida:

Do you feel that Floridians have become a bit laxed and may be less prepared for a hurricane/major hurricane hit due to the 10 year drought?

Yes, particularly the folks new to Florida since 2004/2005.

Is actually almost 11 years. I agree, there's probably a good million new people leaving in FL since 2005 who have never experienced a hurricane.

[Spirit29]

If the storm strengthens faster than the models predict - how or does that effect interaction with the ridge?

The gulf / keys is one giant bathtub. 99L is about to hop in.

[GeneratorPower]

I have a question to the folks who live in Florida:

Do you feel that Floridians have become a bit laxed and may be less prepared for a hurricane/major hurricane hit due to the 10 year drought?

Absolutely unprepared for most people. It's been since Charley 2004 that people here saw any action. And 12 years is longer than most people have lived in Fl.

[SouthFLTropics]

Nice loop showing what appears to be the system trying to stack

Oh GAWD... this thing is seriously blowing out outflow to its N.E. and S.W.! Big time difluence aloft

As good as it is looking, I'm skeptical that it clears the Greater Antilles without disrupting itself. It needs to start gaining latitude to avoid the big islands.

[AutoPenalti]

If the storm strengthens faster than the models predict - how or does that effect interaction with the ridge?

The gulf / keys is one giant bathtub. 99L is about to hop in.

The ridge is just too strong.

[chaser1]

I have a question to the folks who live in Florida:

Do you feel that Floridians have become a bit laxed and may be less prepared for a hurricane/major hurricane hit due to the 10 year drought?

I may be a bit rusty but if it comes yhis way and my mind really goes into hurricane mode, I will be as ready as I have ever been. The last time I went through a hurricane, I had nothing really to protect. Now I have a wife and 2 year old to protect. I see people in my neighborhood brushing 99L off like its nothing. A bit scary

Dont forget the trampoline, pool equipment, and kids toys out back. Wait? Don't leave "your toys" out back either... bring that BBQ on in as well, lol

[CourierPR]

I have a question to the folks who live in Florida:

Do you feel that Floridians have become a bit laxed and may be less prepared for a hurricane/major hurricane hit due to the 10 year drought?

Having lived in South Florida all my 62 years on this earth, my answer is yes. I know I will sound like an old fart, but as a child, I recall there being a lot more respect for what storms can do in terms of damage and loss of life. I distinctly recall hearing a local radio broadcast when Hurricane Donna was headed here that began with the headline, "Killer Hurricane Donna headed for South Florida."

[TheStormExpert]

I have a question to the folks who live in Florida:

Do you feel that Floridians have become a bit laxed and may be less prepared for a hurricane/major hurricane hit due to the 10 year drought?

Yes, as we quickly approach the 11 year anniversary of Hurricane Wilma I can tell that most Floridians have either forgot what it's like or have never gone through a hurricane living in Florida. I fear that many have the sense now that the storm or in other cases tropical wave will either dissipate or fizzle before reaching Florida or turn north and east out to sea.

[AdamFirst]

I have a question to the folks who live in Florida:

Do you feel that Floridians have become a bit laxed and may be less prepared for a hurricane/major hurricane hit due to the 10 year drought?

Absolutely. Complacency kicks in. Though, in my opinion, I believe most South Floridians treat minimal hurricanes differently. A couple examples: My mom had to work at IHOP the day Hurricane Irene hit back in 1999. They closed the restaurant when (naturally) conditions went south and my mom's Camaro ended up getting flooded out as she tried to drive back into the neighborhood.

Another example would be Katrina in 2005 (which is becoming the analog for this potential storm) where many people were out doing their business and having a normal Friday night despite a (rapidly intensifying) landfalling hurricane.

[NDG]

From the soundings at 0z earlier tonight, 597dm mid level ridge across the south east, a huge ridge that will move a little to the north and east and stay put over the Carolinas, eventually to push 99L westward after the Bahamas.

[AutoPenalti]

Nice loop showing what appears to be the system trying to stack

Oh GAWD... this thing is seriously blowing out outflow to its N.E. and S.W.! Big time difluence aloft

As good as it is looking, I'm skeptical that it clears the Greater Antilles without disrupting itself. It needs to start gaining latitude to avoid the big islands.

Yeah, this is getting closer and closer to Hispaniola. This could destroy 99L ala Ericka.