ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[StormPyrate]

Don't know how to do the fancy maps

970
URNT15 KNHC 031923
AF307 0107A GORDON HDOB 42 20180903
191330 2904N 08642W 3923 07775 0451 -179 -220 068009 010 022 000 00
191400 2906N 08645W 3926 07772 0451 -179 -210 081012 013 022 001 00
191430 2908N 08648W 3929 07759 0449 -176 -213 083015 018 024 000 00
191500 2909N 08650W 3923 07762 0449 -178 -217 071013 016 024 000 00
191530 2911N 08653W 3921 07775 0451 -180 -213 053019 020 023 001 00
191600 2913N 08656W 3929 07758 0450 -179 -211 065015 019 024 000 00
191630 2914N 08658W 3924 07768 0450 -180 -215 076014 015 022 000 00
191700 2916N 08701W 3927 07764 0450 -180 -217 082016 017 024 000 00
191730 2918N 08704W 3925 07771 0452 -180 -210 069018 018 024 000 00
191800 2919N 08707W 3924 07771 0452 -180 -221 059017 018 022 000 00
191830 2921N 08709W 3926 07768 0450 -180 -232 066017 018 020 001 00
191900 2923N 08712W 3925 07769 0450 -181 -213 076019 022 022 000 00
191930 2924N 08715W 3926 07765 0450 -179 -221 074022 024 022 000 00
192000 2926N 08717W 3925 07770 0451 -180 -237 070016 019 022 000 00
192030 2928N 08720W 3925 07770 0451 -180 -265 069015 016 023 000 03
192100 2929N 08723W 3926 07764 0451 -178 -271 069017 017 022 000 00
192130 2931N 08726W 3923 07769 0451 -180 -263 065017 018 021 001 00
192200 2933N 08728W 3926 07771 0449 -180 -246 069019 019 023 000 00
192230 2934N 08731W 3925 07772 0451 -184 -243 065020 020 021 001 03
192300 2936N 08734W 3925 07771 0451 -182 -245 060021 021 021 000 00
$$
;

[Sanibel]

Serious deterioration of conditions in last few hours...Gusting with fog-like sheets of rain...Intensifying cyclone overhead and I've lived down here long enough to know the difference...Gust shook computer screen while typing...

Hey Sanibel. I'm in Iona on the very eastern edge of the main band. How strong would you say the winds are? I thought they shouldve extended the warning north to Boca Grande

It's really blowing out here and bending the bushes...Gusts at least TS I would say...

[tolakram]

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Data from an earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission, along
with Doppler velocity data from the Miami radar, indicate that
Gordon has strengthened a little more, with some these data
supporting an intensity of about 50 kt. However, since the earlier
5-n mi-diameter eye has eroded and inner-core convection has become
somewhat ragged, the initial intensity remains 45 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 300/15 kt. The latest model guidance
is still in excellent agreement on Gordon maintaining a west-
northwestward to northwestward motion for the next 48-72 hours right
up until landfall as a strong ridge to the north of the cyclone is
forecast to remain locked in place over the southeastern U.S. and
mid-Atlantic states. Although the guidance has shifted slightly back
to the left, no appreciable changes were made to the previous
forecast track since the models have been 'windshield-wipering' back
and forth over the past 24 hours. The new NHC track forecast is
similar to or a little north of the latest consensus models.

Overall, Gordon's presentation in both radar and satellite imagery
has steadily improved since the previous advisory. Although the
inner-core structure has eroded somewhat, outer banding features
have improved and now extend as far north as central and northern
Florida. The GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity models continue to
indicate that westerly to northwesterly wind shear of 10-15 kt is
expected to affect Gordon for the next 36 hours, a flow pattern that
would generally hinder development. However, the global models'
upper-level wind fields show Gordon remaining near or underneath a
synoptic-scale upper-level anticyclone, a more favorable pattern
that supports at least steady strengthening. Since Gordon will be
moving over very warm sea-surface temperatures of about 30 C, the
cyclone is forecast to reach hurricane strength in 24-36 hours, just
before landfall. For that reason, a Hurricane Warning has been
issued for portions of the central Gulf Coast. The NHC intensity
forecast is a little above the previous advisory, and is close to a
blend of the consensus models HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN.

Key Messages:

1. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and
hurricane conditions to portions of the central Gulf Coast where a
Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect. Residents
in these areas should listen to advice from their local officials.
All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in
the warning areas Tuesday afternoon or evening.

2. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect southern Alabama, southern
Mississippi and Louisiana, where totals could reach as high as 8
inches. This rainfall could cause flash flooding.

3. Rainfall will continue across portions of South Florida and the
Florida Keys through early Tuesday, where totals could reach as high
as 8 inches.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 26.2N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 27.3N 84.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 28.9N 87.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 30.6N 89.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/1800Z 32.1N 91.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/1800Z 34.1N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/1800Z 35.5N 94.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z 38.2N 94.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[tolakram]

You can see the northerly shear, but it flips to southerly just a few miles west. Very complicated setup IMO.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=5796&y=5597&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[StormPyrate]

970
URNT15 KNHC 031923
AF307 0107A GORDON HDOB 42 20180903
191330 2904N 08642W 3923 07775 0451 -179 -220 068009 010 022 000 00
191400 2906N 08645W 3926 07772 0451 -179 -210 081012 013 022 001 00
191430 2908N 08648W 3929 07759 0449 -176 -213 083015 018 024 000 00
191500 2909N 08650W 3923 07762 0449 -178 -217 071013 016 024 000 00
191530 2911N 08653W 3921 07775 0451 -180 -213 053019 020 023 001 00
191600 2913N 08656W 3929 07758 0450 -179 -211 065015 019 024 000 00
191630 2914N 08658W 3924 07768 0450 -180 -215 076014 015 022 000 00
191700 2916N 08701W 3927 07764 0450 -180 -217 082016 017 024 000 00
191730 2918N 08704W 3925 07771 0452 -180 -210 069018 018 024 000 00
191800 2919N 08707W 3924 07771 0452 -180 -221 059017 018 022 000 00
191830 2921N 08709W 3926 07768 0450 -180 -232 066017 018 020 001 00
191900 2923N 08712W 3925 07769 0450 -181 -213 076019 022 022 000 00
191930 2924N 08715W 3926 07765 0450 -179 -221 074022 024 022 000 00
192000 2926N 08717W 3925 07770 0451 -180 -237 070016 019 022 000 00
192030 2928N 08720W 3925 07770 0451 -180 -265 069015 016 023 000 03
192100 2929N 08723W 3926 07764 0451 -178 -271 069017 017 022 000 00
192130 2931N 08726W 3923 07769 0451 -180 -263 065017 018 021 001 00
192200 2933N 08728W 3926 07771 0449 -180 -246 069019 019 023 000 00
192230 2934N 08731W 3925 07772 0451 -184 -243 065020 020 021 001 03
192300 2936N 08734W 3925 07771 0451 -182 -245 060021 021 021 000 00
$$
;

[smithtim]

The mid and upple level circ are slowly becoming more defined. This has plenty of time to deepen rapidly.

Yes very realistic possibly, also concerning that it's a very quick event from ts to landfall within few quick days. Just few quick weekdays after holiday weekend so expect people will not be paying as close attention as usual due to travel or whatnot... hopefully doesn't grow to much but I think the last few years have taught just never really can know.

Is this center going to cross loop current? I see my local met on tv right now is saying now expect cat 1 at landfall

[ObsessedMiami]

Rain has stopped, at least for the time being, in Kendall.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[GCANE]

Convection firing along the north GOM coast and across a good portion of the west GOM.
Taking a big bite out of that shear axis.

[MississippiWx]

saved loop

Good loop, tolakram. Looks better on radar again. It's getting further away from Florida which seems to be helping. Also, maybe helps that its getting into deeper, warmer water.

[Stormcenter]

Interesting that the two most reliable models (GFS & EURO) the NHC leans on have it further west than the NHC's forecasted track. I would not let
my guard down if I lived in New Orleans.

[artist]

970
URNT15 KNHC 031923

$$
;

Thanks, Stormpyrate, for posting

[MississippiWx]

By the way, tolakram, what website did you use for that loop?

[RL3AO]

By the way, tolakram, what website did you use for that loop?

That's an app - - RadarScope.

[Steve]

Interesting that the two most reliable models (GFS & EURO) the NHC leans on have it further west than the NHC's forecasted track. I would not let
my guard down if I lived in New Orleans.

I’m playing it by ear for now. We have enough provisions to get through a couple of days, so it’s really a question of whether or not to park one of the vehicles in a garage downtown.

[jlauderdal]

Rain has stopped, at least for the time being, in Kendall.

its finished here too, storm total 3.05, been a tough day surviving the wrath of Gordon but our preps ensured we made out alright

[MississippiWx]

By the way, tolakram, what website did you use for that loop?

That's an app - - RadarScope.

Oh, it is, isn't it?

I have that on my phone. Just looked different from my Mac. Thanks!

[artist]

Recon is on station, readying for their next flight into Gordon.
NOAA 42rf Kermit is sampling the atmosphere presently

[tolakram]

By the way, tolakram, what website did you use for that loop?

I bought RadarScope for Windows 10. Unfortunately it only supports 6 frames right now, while the android version supports 20 with a yearly subscription.

[toad strangler]

saved loop

Good loop, tolakram. Looks better on radar again. It's getting further away from Florida which seems to be helping. Also, maybe helps that its getting into deeper, warmer water.

Several hours ago being over the Everglades and S FL was was considered beneficial.