2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[supercane4867]

Euro hates Gonzalo but really loves the wave behind it.

[CyclonicFury]

Euro hates Gonzalo but really loves the wave behind it.

https://i.imgur.com/ZBUnEOn.gif

Some members are developing the wave behind that one too. August looks like it could be much more favorable than the last two years.

[OuterBanker]

Euro hates Gonzalo but really loves the wave behind it.

https://i.imgur.com/ZBUnEOn.gif

That model is really not good.
CMC also has a storm north of the islands.

What are both seeing?

[SFLcane]

Euro hates Gonzalo but really loves the wave behind it.

https://i.imgur.com/ZBUnEOn.gif

That model is really not good.
CMC also has a storm north of the islands.

What are both seeing?

Wave emerging of African coast soon.

[SconnieCane]

Euro hates Gonzalo but really loves the wave behind it.

https://i.imgur.com/ZBUnEOn.gif

Am I seeing things or are the majority of those members depicting U.S. landfalls of some sort, anywhere from South Florida to Cape Cod?

That's extraordinary for a wave that hasn't even come off Africa yet, and we're only about 3/4 of the way through July.

[TheStormExpert]

12z EPS not done yet tracking towards Bahamas and VERY active. Irma vibes last few runs

https://iili.io/dxyxzg.jpg

Almost identical to the CMC 12z run with that potential hurricane approaching Bahamas

If this verifies and right now it has support from the CMC then this would be the dreaded “I” storm (assuming 91L develops)

Not an official forecast

I been having bad vibes with Isaias since before the season started!

[aspen]

Euro hates Gonzalo but really loves the wave behind it.

https://i.imgur.com/ZBUnEOn.gif

I see a <960 mbar major hurricane making landfall in Long Island/Connecticut.

How about no, please?

[OuterBanker]

I thought that the large system that exited the African continent yesterday around 15n would amount to something. But,it went poof.
But in the process it seems to have moistened the atmosphere in the process so anything following it will have a better chance.

[gatorcane]

There's the July everyone needed to see for a hyperactive season. Looks like the lid is coming off a month earlier than normal.

I don’t see that the lid is coming off yet. Yes we have a couple of systems but as has been the case so far, we are seeing weak (and tiny Gonzalo) systems and nothing significant like 2005 had by now for example. Climatology does suggest we are on a slow and steady rise in activity as we head towards end of July. Watch for the bigger increase as we head into mid August in a few weeks. Models will be popping soon even the very stubborn GFS.

Speaking of the GFS, plenty of dry air around still as we look a week out, not as much as a week ago but not quite there yet:

[Hurricaneman]

Euro hates Gonzalo but really loves the wave behind it.

https://i.imgur.com/ZBUnEOn.gif

The 0zGFS does nothing with this, unlike the Euro, and the reason is it has that wave moving too fast to develop while the Euro is slower which allows for development

Looking at both the 0zGFS has the wave near Puerto Rico while the Euro has it just east of the Caribbean in the same timeframe and that 500+ miles difference is important

[SFLcane]

Overnight EPS very active with wave emerging of the African coast. One to watch for sure.

[gatorcane]

Overnight EPS very active with wave emerging of the African coast. One to watch for sure.

https://iili.io/dzGSef.png

I remain skeptical. Still not one GFS ensemble develops, the CMC has backed off as well. Could be that the upgraded Euro develops more phantoms in the long-range (as we have seen in the EPAC) but the model still looks solid for tracking a storm once it develops as it is nailing Gonzalo. We know the SAL that is wreaking havoc on Gonzalo is still blanketing the MDR and is not going anywhere anytime soon.

[SFLcane]

Overnight EPS very active with wave emerging of the African coast. One to watch for sure.

https://iili.io/dzGSef.png

Here is wave of the African coast quite impressive.

[toad strangler]

Overnight EPS very active with wave emerging of the African coast. One to watch for sure.

https://iili.io/dzGSef.png

I remain skeptical. Still not one GFS ensemble develops, the CMC has backed off as well. Could be that the upgraded Euro develops more phantoms in the long-range (as we have seen in the EPAC) but the model still looks solid for tracking a storm once it develops as it is nailing Gonzalo. We know the SAL that is wreaking havoc on Gonzalo is still blanketing the MDR and is not going anywhere anytime soon.

Doesn't matter if Gonzalo goes poof. It's an MDR storm that popped up nearly out of nowhere because the models whiffed (sans CMC). It's a TC that showed up in a poor environment and background state a nearly a month before it should have. THAT's a signal in my eyes.

[Jr0d]

Doesn't matter if Gonzalo goes poof. It's an MDR storm that popped up nearly out of nowhere because the models whiffed (sans CMC). It's a TC that showed up in a poor environment and background state a nearly a month before it should have. THAT's a signal in my eyes.

The models, even though they have been missing are starting to show activity in the weeks ahead.

The other signals are there too, I expect a very busy August.

[cycloneye]

A thread for the wave that some models develop is now available so you can post the model runs there.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121043&p=2814412#p2814412

[TheStormExpert]

Overnight EPS very active with wave emerging of the African coast. One to watch for sure.

https://iili.io/dzGSef.png

I remain skeptical. Still not one GFS ensemble develops, the CMC has backed off as well. Could be that the upgraded Euro develops more phantoms in the long-range (as we have seen in the EPAC) but the model still looks solid for tracking a storm once it develops as it is nailing Gonzalo. We know the SAL that is wreaking havoc on Gonzalo is still blanketing the MDR and is not going anywhere anytime soon.

I’m with you too gatorcane! Seeing that Gonzalo didn’t last more than a few days as an impressive entity due to all the SAL and mid-level dry air has me really skeptical of this developing as the Euro and the CMC are basically it. Not to mention I keep noticing the Euro is slowly delaying or pushing back development of this area. Things will likely ramp up some but not for a month or so.

[Ivanhater]

I'm not sure exactly what the catalyst is but quite a few models are showing another spin up in the Gulf behind future Hannah, early next week. Icon, Cmc, Ukmet

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[EquusStorm]

Watch that little Gulf spinup snipe the 'I' name like Imelda did last year lol

[TheProfessor]

I'm not sure exactly what the catalyst is but quite a few models are showing another spin up in the Gulf behind future Hannah, early next week. Icon, Cmc, Ukmethttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200723/96060e947f7a1d59cd492b1535a695b5.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200723/9bba7ead4287e9addff7d8f693d2fd74.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200723/ca14494e8e0874d68801cd68ee2cb3ad.jpg

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Steve has been alluding to this. Meanwhile here's yesterday's 6z Parallel GFS that just came out.



Part of me want to attribute this to convective feedback(especially in the case above) but multiple models falling prey to that would be weird. Definitely something interesting and any leftover energy will need to be watched.