ATL: LAURA - Models

[chaser1]

As much as I don’t want to do this, below is what the GFS showed for Dorian last year around the same timeframe. Look familiar? The Euro just started picking it up but had little either. The HWRF was all over Dorian. I am still going with the GFS and Euro consensus for now though on 98L.

See Dorian models thread. A lot of eerie similarities to what is being discussed in this thread:
viewtopic.php?f=89&t=120454&hilit=Dorian&start=280

DORIAN GFS RUN:
https://i.imgur.com/oCSgoGW.gif

Fantastic point! GFS & Euro could be right with 98L but there recent history has be "off"

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1296241305815855104

[AJC3]

This thread is being temporarily locked while we try and clean up all the non model-related chit-chat and back-and-forth. Give it about 5 minutes.

And once this thread is unlocked again, for the 134573723327th time, this thread is about model data for Invest 98L, and directly related comments.

It is NOT for at-length debates about:

Seasonal model performace
Storms of the past
Whether or not you or someone else should feel a certain way about a certain model run.
What some TV met is saying.
Why someone should start up their generator.

It's also not for one or few-word posts, reactions, emojis etc. Nor is for repetitive post after post after post that say the same things such as:

"The global models are unreliable beyond 5-7 days", and
"The global models that show no development are out to lunch and are having trouble with 97L"

Those horses have been beaten to death a few times over, don't you think?

[BobHarlem]

0z early models, shift right, tvcn north of the islands again and thus intensity up again (vcn ends as a cat 3) after passing over the middle keys into the SE Gulf.

[Blown Away]

I guess the HWRF holds a lot of weight with the TVCN, it shifted off PR, Hispaniola, and Cuba and on 00z guidance. If PTC is initiated and end point of the 5 day will be near tip of FL peninsula.

[DestinHurricane]

0z early models, shift right, tvcn north of the islands again And thus intensity up again (vcn ends as a cat 3). .

https://i.imgur.com/7KGQgsP.gif

https://i.imgur.com/wABpnNf.png

Interesting intensity consensus... Doubt the NHC will follow that.

[AxaltaRacing24]

0z early models, shift right, tvcn north of the islands again and thus intensity up again (vcn ends as a cat 3) after passing over the middle keys into the SE Gulf.

https://i.imgur.com/7KGQgsP.gif

https://i.imgur.com/wABpnNf.png

notice how the intensity guidance trends upwards every single run.

[Blown Away]

Not sure I can remember a situation like this where both the GFS & Euro only show a wave, maybe TD, and many of the others showing a strong hurricane. There won’t be a hurricane without the GFS & Euro showing it at some point.

[SFLcane]

Not sure I can remember a situation like this where both the GFS & Euro only show a wave, maybe TD, and many of the others showing a strong hurricane. There won’t be a hurricane without the GFS & Euro showing it at some point.

Isaac.

[cheezyWXguy]

Not sure I can remember a situation like this where both the GFS & Euro only show a wave, maybe TD, and many of the others showing a strong hurricane. There won’t be a hurricane without the GFS & Euro showing it at some point.

Getting flashbacks of the euro showing Felix 07 as a tropical depression when it was a cat 5

[blp]

Levi with new Video. Also onboard that once in the Bahamas could get favorable.

https://youtu.be/7vI1jrZkGoY

[toad strangler]

Levi with new Video. Also onboard that once in the Bahamas could get favorable.

https://youtu.be/7vI1jrZkGoY

Don't waste your breath. 92% of those who watched that video didn't catch this.

[Ken711]

[SconnieCane]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_98.gif

For all the talk about "the models are all over the place, they're out to lunch," that's a pretty tight cluster.

[blp]

This is classic. Something we amateurs would say lol.

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1296273966991114240

[AJC3]

Locked again for the second cleanup in an hour.

Folks, this is really disappointing to see. We had to remove two pages worth of junk only an hour ago, and it looks like several of the same posters filled this thread right back up with garbage.

The admins will be looking at additional ways of how to keep this thread respectful, less snarky, and not have it degenerate into a general model bash-fest and debate.

This includes warnings and 3-day "vacations" if needed.

[St0rmTh0r]

How far will this go North of the islands?

[SouthFLTropics]

ICON 4 run trend at 72 hours:

[stormlover2013]

Icon misses south Florida and goes through the straits, into gom at 126 hours

[SouthFLTropics]

ICON 4 run trend at 90 hours... Ironically this gets classified and ICON starts to come in weaker than it has the past four runs.