Texas Fall 2022

[Ntxw]

My goodness the EPO is going bonkers on the 12z Euro

MJO has quietly been progressing through P7-8 and no one has been talking about it. Lag favors.

[Brent]

After Thursday my highs are not above the mid 50s through the weekend before Thanksgiving

Also that timeframe around the 15th is still showing potential for something wintry on the GFS

[Iceresistance]

After Thursday my highs are not above the mid 50s through the weekend before Thanksgiving

Also that timeframe around the 15th is still showing potential for something wintry on the GFS

We're now at CST, models start earlier!

[Iceresistance]

There is GEFS models consistency of the PNA becoming neutral, the AO and NAO turning towards negative in Mid to Late November. Is it possible to have snow with the -SOI we're currently having that will lag for several days (or a couple of weeks) to show itself in Texas?

[Ntxw]

There is GEFS models consistency of the PNA becoming neutral, the AO and NAO turning towards negative in Mid to Late November. Is it possible to have snow with the -SOI we're currently having that will lag for several days (or a couple of weeks) to show itself in Texas?

Too early to tell. It's just nice to get a sustained below normal pattern first. We haven't had many of those since February. Warmer days outnumber cooler ones.

[Iceresistance]

There is GEFS models consistency of the PNA becoming neutral, the AO and NAO turning towards negative in Mid to Late November. Is it possible to have snow with the -SOI we're currently having that will lag for several days (or a couple of weeks) to show itself in Texas?

Too early to tell. It's just nice to get a sustained below normal pattern first. We haven't had many of those since February. Warmer days outnumber cooler ones.

Yeah, this winter is going to counter the brutally hot summer, mark my words!

[cheezyWXguy]

There is GEFS models consistency of the PNA becoming neutral, the AO and NAO turning towards negative in Mid to Late November. Is it possible to have snow with the -SOI we're currently having that will lag for several days (or a couple of weeks) to show itself in Texas?

Too early to tell. It's just nice to get a sustained below normal pattern first. We haven't had many of those since February. Warmer days outnumber cooler ones.

Yeah, this winter is going to counter the brutally hot summer, mark my words!

My loose guess is it will average out to normal or slightly above normal temps, but given Friday’s event, I could see extremes on either side periodically. Patterns seem to have a tendency to repeat themselves every now and again during the late fall/winter/early spring months, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see a few dynamic bowling balls roll through. Too far out to make any real guesses though

[Ntxw]

-31 daily SOI. Major pattern shift. QPF bump likely coming with it.

[bubba hotep]

This is right at D10, so just a little too fantasy to put stock in but fun to look at!

[Iceresistance]

What is with the 0z GFS? And why is it trying to show November snow near Houston, TX in the long range?

[Iceresistance]

0z Euro has snow from the 15th to the 17th!

[rwfromkansas]

I think models tend to do this crazy fantasy stuff when there is a major pattern shift coming.

I think some snow is likely, but more likely Kansas or northern OK.

However, my worry is that we will be cold for a few weeks and then torch all through December to have a hot Christmas. But, it's likey January would be cold in that case, so maybe that's good.

[TropicalTundra]

I think models tend to do this crazy fantasy stuff when there is a major pattern shift coming.

I think some snow is likely, but more likely Kansas or northern OK.

However, my worry is that we will be cold for a few weeks and then torch all through December to have a hot Christmas. But, it's likey January would be cold in that case, so maybe that's good.

Gives massive SNOVID vibes imo.

[Cpv17]

What is with the 0z GFS? And why is it trying to show November snow near Houston, TX in the long range?

I mean have you seen the blocking in that range over Alaska and NW Canada?

[somethingfunny]

It seems like every year we have some really nice cold snaps in October and November and some really nice post-frontal precip events, and everyone says it's a great sign for winter and just wait for this pattern to continue when temperature averages are lower, and then December and January are always warm and dry with a few "if only we had moisture" cold fronts. Eventually the first [s]two[/s] three weeks of February arrive, which is the only time it ever actually snows in DFW.

[Iceresistance]

What is with the 0z GFS? And why is it trying to show November snow near Houston, TX in the long range?

I mean have you seen the blocking in that range over Alaska and NW Canada?

Yes, but why of all months is snow in Southern Texas to be in November?

[HockeyTx82]

0z Euro has snow from the 15th to the 17th!

Where?

[Iceresistance]

0z Euro has snow from the 15th to the 17th!

Where?

Whoops, I forgot to give out the general location earlier.

MIssouri, Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, and into Northern Texas. Jest before the run ended.

[Cpv17]

What is with the 0z GFS? And why is it trying to show November snow near Houston, TX in the long range?

I mean have you seen the blocking in that range over Alaska and NW Canada?

Yes, but why of all months is snow in Southern Texas to be in November?

It’s happened in November before. With that ridging it’s not out the realm of possibilities but remains unlikely to verify. That ridging is potent. If it verifies that will definitely send down some cold air.

[Edwards Limestone]

This humidity is wretched for November