Texas Spring 2025

[TomballEd]

Ryan Hall not streaming but Max Velocity is.

[txtwister78]

Northern areas of the Austin Metro need to be watching that tornado warned storm closely, specifically Georgetown and Round Rock. About to get a cell merger from the west and so the localized tornado threat could spike again with this storm shortly thereafter as it pushes south.

[Edwards Limestone]

21z HRRR shows the later activity largely splitting SA and Austin with the large complex missing SA to the south from 1-3 am

Hopefully it's wrong, but it has been pretty spot on lately.

[WacoWx]

Briggs, TX taking a direct hit from a tornado rn

[Edwards Limestone]

Briggs, TX taking a direct hit from a tornado rn

Is it confirmed on the ground? The warning just says "capable of producing."

[wxman22]

Briggs, TX taking a direct hit from a tornado rn

Is it confirmed on the ground? The warning just says "capable of producing."

It may not be on the ground at the moment, but it was confirmed on the ground by several spotters/chasers earlier.

[WacoWx]

Hearne probably at about 5” in the past 1.5 hours. Insane rain rates right over town.

[txtwister78]

21z HRRR shows the later activity largely splitting SA and Austin with the large complex missing SA to the south from 1-3 am

Hopefully it's wrong, but it has been pretty spot on lately.

I'd say the HRRR has been surprisingly bad today. Didn't have much if anything developing out west or nw of SA on earlier runs. Even along the outflow boundary to our north it was pretty well underdone. Playing catch up with real-time observations.

RRFS actually did better today despite it sometimes having a overdone bias for development at times.

[Bhow]

Fully anticipate Austin and San Antonio to get another nothing burger.

[txtwister78]

Fully anticipate Austin and San Antonio to get another nothing burger.

Lol. Man, about a little optimism in here for SC TX? Look at it this way, some folks are getting much needed rainfall today across the drought region and that's a huge plus regardless of who gets what or misses in their own individual backyard, but the storms are still out there, and the night isn't over yet so hopefully others can cash in as well before they begin to weaken.

More widespread chances tomorrow with the arrival of the frontal boundary. We can do without the big hail of course but you take your rainfall down here anyway you can get it right now.

[txtwister78]

[Bhow]

Fully anticipate Austin and San Antonio to get another nothing burger.

Lol. Man, about a little optimism in here for SC TX? Look at it this way, some folks are getting much needed rainfall today across the drought region and that's a huge plus regardless of who gets what or misses in their own individual backyard, but the storms are still out there, and the night isn't over yet so hopefully others can cash in as well before they begin to weaken.

More widespread chances tomorrow with the arrival of the frontal boundary. We can do without the big hail of course but you take your rainfall down here anyway you can get it right now.

Ha it’s not good when getting rain down here is starting to feel as difficult as getting snow in the winter. Always one ingredient away

[DukeMu]

Hope this continues through summer! 2007, 2013, 2014, 2021 please!

Not 2011, 2023!

[DukeMu]

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/images/mcd0206.gif

That hail core is heading towards Conroe.

[txtwister78]

Fully anticipate Austin and San Antonio to get another nothing burger.

Lol. Man, about a little optimism in here for SC TX? Look at it this way, some folks are getting much needed rainfall today across the drought region and that's a huge plus regardless of who gets what or misses in their own individual backyard, but the storms are still out there, and the night isn't over yet so hopefully others can cash in as well before they begin to weaken.

More widespread chances tomorrow with the arrival of the frontal boundary. We can do without the big hail of course but you take your rainfall down here anyway you can get it right now.

Ha it’s not good when getting rain down here is starting to feel as difficult as getting snow in the winter. Always one ingredient away

Well, the ingredients are actually in place tonight and will be again tomorrow and so that's not the issue compared to earlier in the week when we didn't have a trigger (lifting mechanism in place). The problem is models don't always tell the whole story about what the current observations are on any given day under these patterns and how those players on a map will interact with each other (dryline, outflow boundary etc) leading to storms or not. Today we had some models that were more bullish obviously than others (mentioned above), but I would argue it's been a good day overall for many across the region in the rainfall department.

I understand the frustration of not getting rain in one's own backyard, particularly when rain has been so scarce under this severe drought, but when you have the radar lit up as it is tonight, I'm cheering that on for everyone who needs it not just me. Hopefully those that miss out tonight will get their chance tomorrow. We still have an active pattern that looks to continue next week so a lot to root for. Hang in there.

[snownado]

Not really seeing where the 80% Probs for rain/t'storms are coming from in FWD's grids. All the CAMs pretty much leapfrog DFW as far as any activity late tonight / tomorrow.

[Gotwood]

Not really seeing where the 80% Probs for rain/t'storms are coming from in FWD's grids. All the CAMs pretty much leapfrog DFW as far as any activity late tonight / tomorrow.

I noticed this as well. I guess we will see what happens.

[rwfromkansas]

Not really seeing where the 80% Probs for rain/t'storms are coming from in FWD's grids. All the CAMs pretty much leapfrog DFW as far as any activity late tonight / tomorrow.

I noticed this as well. I guess we will see what happens.

This is one time that’s fine with me. Got effectively 3 inches the other day.

[South Texas Storms]

Lol. Man, about a little optimism in here for SC TX? Look at it this way, some folks are getting much needed rainfall today across the drought region and that's a huge plus regardless of who gets what or misses in their own individual backyard, but the storms are still out there, and the night isn't over yet so hopefully others can cash in as well before they begin to weaken.

More widespread chances tomorrow with the arrival of the frontal boundary. We can do without the big hail of course but you take your rainfall down here anyway you can get it right now.

Ha it’s not good when getting rain down here is starting to feel as difficult as getting snow in the winter. Always one ingredient away

Well, the ingredients are actually in place tonight and will be again tomorrow and so that's not the issue compared to earlier in the week when we didn't have a trigger (lifting mechanism in place). The problem is models don't always tell the whole story about what the current observations are on any given day under these patterns and how those players on a map will interact with each other (dryline, outflow boundary etc) leading to storms or not. Today we had some models that were more bullish obviously than others (mentioned above), but I would argue it's been a good day overall for many across the region in the rainfall department.

I understand the frustration of not getting rain in one's own backyard, particularly when rain has been so scarce under this severe drought, but when you have the radar lit up as it is tonight, I'm cheering that on for everyone who needs it not just me. Hopefully those that miss out tonight will get their chance tomorrow. We still have an active pattern that looks to continue next week so a lot to root for. Hang in there.

Well said. Today actually overperformed in my opinion. Activity was quite a bit more widespread than most models indicated and some areas got dumped on. Since Monday, I've pegged Friday as the most widespread rain day we should see this week. 0z high res models are now latching on to the HRRR's idea that we could see a nearly solid line of storms form across central TX tomorrow afternoon before pushing into south TX during the evening. I'm hopeful for widespread 0.50-1.50 inch totals for much of the area tomorrow.

[Edwards Limestone]

21z HRRR shows the later activity largely splitting SA and Austin with the large complex missing SA to the south from 1-3 am

Hopefully it's wrong, but it has been pretty spot on lately.

Split perfectly. HRRR nailed this. Nada for Austin south to New Braunfels.

Maybe the cold front will come through tomorrow but I won’t be betting on much in my backyard.

Glad the Hill Country got some isolated relief today at least.