NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Iceresistance]

Melissa's eye is now a pinhole type at 8 Nautical Miles, uh oh

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ujb.png

[kevin]

Eye contraction can also happen prior to an EWRC. The next pass should provide clarification. If the pressure has dropped significantly then it's most likely a stable pinhole, otherwise it could instead be eye size contractions as a precursor to an EWRC.

[cheezyWXguy]

Eye dropsonde had 949mb with 26kt. Good for 947mb.

[CrazyC83]

Without Recon, this would probably be analyzed at 130-135 kt right now. The best guess on that data is 115 kt for the actual intensity.

It's almost an inverse of Delta 2020, which in the Caribbean never went above T5.0 but aircraft supported 120 kt.

[Teban54]

Without Recon, this would probably be analyzed at 130-135 kt right now. The best guess on that data is 115 kt for the actual intensity.

It's almost an inverse of Delta 2020, which in the Caribbean never went above T5.0 but aircraft supported 120 kt.

It's also a miniature and less extreme version of Eta, with raw T8.0+ when recon measured 130 kt in reality.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Just want to shout out a quick "THANKS" to fellow members for imparting some really insightful details and analysis regarding a few micro characteristics at hand that play into a major hurricane's subtle fluctuations, RI, and the often occuring "secondary" or appendage blob affect that seems to occur in an number of Atlantic basin storms. The combination of a great satellite and radar presentation along with well explained & concise explanation makes for a great sit-back with popcorn visual learning event

I just wish I wasn’t super tired then I could actually figure out what my questions about the explanations are

[sasha_B]

Without Recon, this would probably be analyzed at 130-135 kt right now. The best guess on that data is 115 kt for the actual intensity.

It's almost an inverse of Delta 2020, which in the Caribbean never went above T5.0 but aircraft supported 120 kt.

Given the fact that deepening seems to have resumed, albeit at a slower pace, and there's been no appreciable reduction in satellite estimates, it's possible that they maintain intensity at 18z for continuity's sake until there's clearer evidence that an EWRC is in progress.

[USTropics]

It's difficult to ascertain exactly what is going on without some tail doppler radar. While fully closed, the western side of the eyewall hasn't exhibited the same level of depth as the eastern eyewall for much of past 6 hours (with even brief periods of being open). Here is the latest radar image:


TROPICS-5 pass from about 2 hours ago:

[aspen]

It's difficult to ascertain exactly what is going on without some tail doppler radar. While fully closed, the western side of the eyewall hasn't exhibited the same level of depth as the eastern eyewall for much of past 6 hours (with even brief periods of being open). Here is the latest radar image:
https://i.imgur.com/PmrlUJW.png

TROPICS-5 pass from about 2 hours ago:
https://i.imgur.com/h355b8v.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/ojlfvPv.png

That thick band/partial outer eyewall on the NW side is probably responsible for the double wind maxima on recon, I reckon. Perhaps that also has something to do with the inner eyewall’s weak spot?

[eastcoastFL]

Is Jamaica's met website broken for anyone else too? I was trying to see radar but barely anything's loaded.

This mirror works well and doesnt have any gaps

https://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?960

Those outer rain bands are starting hang over Kingston. This is the start of a very long couple of days for the people there.

[kevin]

It feels like only a matter of time until the intensity matches Melissa's appearance, because the storm keeps getting more impressive. We're now already at 15 hours of raw T# above 7.0.

[sasha_B]

Seeing mixed opinions on whether or not radar data indicate that an EWRC is in progress. There's no mention of it on the 18z intermediate advisory, but there have been some signs of dual wind maxima, and the eye contraction we saw earlier could back that up. Either way, the next VDM might help to clarify the situation - extrapolated pressure is still dropping, FWIW. Down to 944 hPa, about 2 hPa deeper than it was on the last pass about an hour and a half ago.

[Hurricane2022]

943.6 extrap - intensifying again!

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/TheSteveCop/status/1982507691525513234

 https://x.com/WeathermanAAA_/status/1982509651079074124

[kevin]

FL winds only peaked at 119 kt this pass which still doesn't support much more than 110 kt at the surface. The extrapolated pressure has fallen from 946.9 mb with 7 kt -> 946.2 mb to 943.6 mb with 9 kt -> 942.7 mb. That's roughly a 3.5 mb drop in 80 minutes or 2.6 mb/h. Definitely deepening, not per se at the rate that one would expect with a pinhole. But if an EWRC cycle were starting you'd expect practically zero deepening which is also not the case. Still a bit of a puzzle, but she is getting stronger at the moment.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1982482770782818347

[aspen]

Even as a mature hurricane, Melissa isn’t making it easy on us lol.

Between its incredibly complex track forecast for the better part of a week and its stair-stepping, erratic intensification phase, this is likely one of the most difficult TCs to forecast and assess in a long time.

[WaveBreaking]

[cycloneye]

Dropsonde down to 945 mbs.

[eastcoastFL]

 https://x.com/TheSteveCop/status/1982507691525513234

 https://x.com/WeathermanAAA_/status/1982509651079074124

Not what I wanted to see, especially with so much time left before landfall. This could spell additional trouble for cuba and Hispaniola as well as they're already dealing with a lot of rain.