Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

Bouy 41041



This bouy located well north from the center has been providing data of strong sustained and gusty winds from last night thru this morning.The pressure is rising indicating the center passed the longitud of the bouy.

[HenkL]

URNT12 KWBC 271219
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/1210Z
B. 13 DEG 30 MIN N
46 DEG 47 MIN W
C. NA
D. 56 KT
E. 040 DEG 100 NM
F. 122 DEG 57 KT
G. 027 DEG 43 NM
H. EXTRAP 1002 MB
I. 19 C/2136 M
J. 20 C/2142 M
K. 12 C/NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/NA
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA2 0212A KAREN OB 08 AL122007
MAX FL WIND 57 KT NE QUAD 1159Z
MAX SFMR WIND 56 KT NE QUAD 1105Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 7000 FT

[HenkL]

URNT15 KWBC 271233
NOAA2 0212A KAREN HDOB 15 20070927
121400 1319N 04653W 7812 02221 0052 +187 +122 258005 007 020 000 00
121500 1315N 04655W 7812 02224 0057 +186 +118 286011 011 017 000 00
121600 1312N 04657W 7810 02228 0057 +189 +109 270015 017 027 000 00
121700 1308N 04659W 7810 02228 0070 +176 +112 267022 023 028 000 00
121800 1305N 04701W 7809 02233 0081 +165 +113 262024 025 027 000 00
121900 1302N 04703W 7810 02232 0090 +157 +108 260026 027 024 000 00
122000 1259N 04705W 7811 02234 0097 +151 +110 259031 031 023 000 00
122100 1255N 04707W 7814 02234 0101 +150 +116 257025 030 021 000 00
122200 1252N 04708W 7811 02241 0110 +144 +117 258025 026 019 000 00
122300 1249N 04710W 7811 02241 0112 +144 +115 257025 026 016 000 00
122400 1246N 04712W 7811 02242 0113 +145 +115 253026 027 015 000 00
122500 1243N 04714W 7810 02246 0118 +141 +110 250026 027 013 000 00
122600 1240N 04716W 7810 02245 0120 +139 +116 249026 026 013 000 00
122700 1237N 04718W 7811 02247 0122 +138 +116 258027 027 012 000 00
122800 1233N 04720W 7812 02246 0126 +135 +121 256025 026 014 000 00
122900 1230N 04722W 7811 02248 0125 +138 +120 252024 026 008 001 00
123000 1227N 04724W 7811 02250 0124 +141 +115 260023 024 009 000 00
123100 1224N 04726W 7811 02253 0123 +143 +114 263025 025 007 000 00
123200 1221N 04728W 7811 02250 0126 +139 +116 261024 025 005 000 00
123300 1218N 04730W 7811 02251 0129 +136 +118 261023 024 008 000 00

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1236 UTC THU SEP 27 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KAREN (AL122007) 20070927 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070927 1200 070928 0000 070928 1200 070929 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 46.8W 14.9N 49.6W 16.2N 52.5W 17.3N 54.7W
BAMD 13.5N 46.8W 15.2N 48.3W 16.8N 49.5W 18.2N 50.3W
BAMM 13.5N 46.8W 14.7N 49.0W 15.7N 50.8W 16.5N 52.3W
LBAR 13.5N 46.8W 15.0N 48.4W 16.3N 49.8W 17.3N 50.9W
SHIP 55KTS 52KTS 49KTS 46KTS
DSHP 55KTS 52KTS 49KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070929 1200 070930 1200 071001 1200 071002 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 56.7W 18.9N 59.9W 20.0N 62.6W 20.8N 65.3W
BAMD 19.4N 50.9W 22.1N 52.1W 24.8N 53.9W 26.6N 54.9W
BAMM 17.1N 53.5W 18.2N 55.5W 19.5N 57.2W 20.0N 58.7W
LBAR 18.1N 52.1W 20.2N 53.6W 22.1N 54.1W 23.8N 53.9W
SHIP 46KTS 42KTS 45KTS 45KTS
DSHP 46KTS 42KTS 45KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 46.8W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 44.6W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 42.5W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 170NM RD34SE = 140NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 100NM

[HenkL]

URNT15 KWBC 271253
NOAA2 0212A KAREN HDOB 16 20070927
123400 1214N 04732W 7810 02252 0128 +138 +122 261023 024 010 000 00
123500 1211N 04734W 7812 02251 0131 +137 +123 265022 023 008 000 00
123600 1208N 04736W 7810 02256 0128 +143 +108 263026 026 009 000 00
123700 1205N 04738W 7811 02255 0129 +141 +116 268026 026 005 000 00
123800 1201N 04740W 7811 02253 0132 +138 +114 268024 025 004 000 00
123900 1158N 04742W 7810 02257 0130 +141 +120 263023 024 005 000 00
124000 1155N 04744W 7811 02257 0131 +141 +121 263024 024 010 000 00
124100 1152N 04746W 7812 02257 0131 +141 +123 262022 024 005 000 00
124200 1149N 04748W 7811 02257 0133 +139 +122 255020 021 004 000 00
124300 1145N 04749W 7810 02259 0137 +136 +129 257021 021 999 999 03
124400 1144N 04745W 7812 02258 0133 +141 +121 259022 022 005 000 00
124500 1145N 04740W 7811 02260 0133 +141 +122 259023 023 005 000 00
124600 1145N 04736W 7811 02260 0132 +143 +123 258025 025 005 000 00
124700 1145N 04732W 7811 02259 0131 +142 +120 256026 027 018 000 00
124800 1145N 04727W 7810 02259 0129 +144 +117 257026 027 006 000 00
124900 1145N 04723W 7810 02260 0134 +139 +121 257025 025 006 000 00
125000 1145N 04719W 7811 02257 0134 +137 +123 255027 027 007 000 00
125100 1145N 04714W 7810 02258 0132 +139 +120 252027 027 006 000 00
125200 1145N 04710W 7811 02258 0134 +138 +123 250027 028 005 000 00
125300 1145N 04705W 7809 02261 0138 +135 +126 245027 028 008 000 00

[Gustywind]

Bouy 41041



This bouy located well north from the center has been providing data of strong sustained and gusty winds from last night thru this morning.The pressure is rising indicating the center passed the longitud of the bouy.

Yeah allowing maybe for a very slight developpement on Hurricane status?!...perhaps?!that's maybe little credible if you look at the shear tendency map... seems that strong winds have lessen slightly in vicinity of Karen ...allowing for a very brief organization near Hurrincane status but no more...just an opinion...but honestly after that... it will be more complicated for Karen to fight against this shear environment... but we don't know what Karen has in store as his predescessor Ingrid...tenacious system in spite of the high shear value, so we will see what happens...note that just for the fun... females maybe have some troubles to be significants systems this year lool...

[Gustywind]

Bouy 41041



This bouy located well north from the center has been providing data of strong sustained and gusty winds from last night thru this morning.The pressure is rising indicating the center passed the longitud of the bouy.

Yeah allowing maybe for a very slight developpement on Hurricane status?!...perhaps?!that's maybe little credible if you look at the shear tendency map... seems that strong winds have lessen slightly in vicinity of Karen ...allowing for a very brief organization near Hurrincane status but no more...just an opinion...but honestly after that... it will be more complicated for Karen to fight against this shear environment... but we don't know what Karen has in store as his predescessor Ingrid...tenacious system in spite of the high shear value, so we will see what happens...note that just for the fun... females maybe have some troubles to be significants systems this year lool...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[HenkL]

The two VDM positions so far.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KWBC 271313
NOAA2 0212A KAREN HDOB 17 20070927
125400 1145N 04701W 7811 02259 0139 +136 +114 241026 026 007 000 00
125500 1146N 04657W 7811 02259 0136 +139 +117 235026 027 007 000 00
125600 1146N 04652W 7812 02258 0136 +138 +121 227029 029 009 000 00
125700 1146N 04648W 7811 02259 0137 +136 +130 225028 030 011 000 00
125800 1146N 04644W 7812 02258 0136 +137 +126 225030 031 014 000 00
125900 1147N 04639W 7812 02262 0134 +141 +123 226028 029 015 000 00
130000 1147N 04635W 7812 02257 0134 +141 +121 221029 029 013 000 00
130100 1147N 04631W 7811 02259 0134 +141 +124 218030 030 012 000 00
130200 1148N 04627W 7813 02258 0130 +146 +117 216030 031 011 000 00
130300 1148N 04622W 7812 02259 0135 +139 +127 213030 031 017 000 00
130400 1148N 04618W 7812 02261 0132 +143 +135 219023 030 030 002 00
130500 1148N 04614W 7809 02262 0131 +143 +131 212027 027 026 001 00
130600 1148N 04610W 7811 02260 0135 +140 +125 220030 031 019 000 00
130700 1148N 04605W 7809 02265 0139 +136 +135 209031 032 023 000 00
130800 1148N 04601W 7810 02263 0143 +133 +130 199030 030 022 000 00
130900 1149N 04557W 7811 02262 0141 +136 +127 199029 030 018 000 00
131000 1154N 04557W 7813 02258 0141 +133 +125 186031 032 018 000 03
131100 1157N 04559W 7811 02259 0137 +135 +134 194027 032 020 000 03
131200 1200N 04602W 7810 02262 0136 +136 +136 200027 027 021 000 00
131300 1204N 04604W 7811 02259 0132 +140 +125 200032 033 023 000 00

[wxman57]

That buoy is reporting only 20kt winds 90nm from the center. It's looking like Karen's TS winds are detached about 130-150 miles NE-SE of the center. Strong shear = more westerly motion = I've adjusted my track about 200 miles farther left/west beyond the next 3 days, much closer to the eastern Caribbean. But if Karen is so weak and has all squalls well east of the center, any effects on the islands would be minimal or none. (like Ingrid) If Karen becomes stronger, then it'll turn northward well east of the islands.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KWBC 271333
NOAA2 0212A KAREN HDOB 18 20070927
131400 1207N 04607W 7810 02259 0132 +138 +132 198030 033 021 000 00
131500 1210N 04609W 7812 02256 0134 +137 +126 195032 032 016 000 00
131600 1213N 04612W 7812 02254 0131 +138 +123 192032 032 017 000 00
131700 1217N 04615W 7811 02256 0129 +141 +119 193030 032 018 000 00
131800 1220N 04617W 7811 02254 0130 +139 +121 190030 031 018 000 00
131900 1224N 04619W 7811 02254 0128 +141 +124 192029 030 022 000 00
132000 1227N 04621W 7811 02253 0124 +144 +126 194029 030 022 000 00
132100 1231N 04623W 7810 02254 0126 +140 +125 196029 029 021 000 00
132200 1235N 04625W 7812 02250 0121 +145 +118 195029 030 022 000 00
132300 1238N 04627W 7812 02250 0123 +143 +125 192029 030 022 000 00
132400 1242N 04629W 7811 02251 0122 +143 +118 193030 030 023 000 00
132500 1246N 04631W 7810 02252 0118 +147 +115 198028 029 023 000 00
132600 1249N 04633W 7809 02249 0116 +150 +096 198029 031 025 000 00
132700 1253N 04635W 7812 02247 0112 +152 +104 201029 031 025 000 00
132800 1257N 04637W 7812 02245 0109 +152 +110 199031 031 025 000 00
132900 1301N 04639W 7811 02243 0103 +157 +108 200032 033 026 000 00
133000 1304N 04641W 7810 02243 0102 +157 +107 202030 032 028 000 00
133100 1308N 04643W 7811 02240 0096 +160 +098 204029 030 028 000 00
133200 1312N 04645W 7813 02236 0093 +161 +108 204028 028 029 000 00
133300 1315N 04647W 7809 02238 0086 +167 +114 205024 028 030 000 00

[chadtm80]

[chadtm80]

[HURAKAN]

completely exposed.

[RL3AO]

Yikes. This storm hit a wall.

[storms in NC]

Hey everyone My PC has been down. Well I just looked at karen and she is moving NW it seems. But she is still low. I don't think that this front is going to pick her up or not. And I see the Shears are doing a job on her as of the rest of the ones that try and come up. I told you all this is not going to be a year for any Hurricans for the US. The ridge and ULL's has had a BIG part in play this year. But that is good for the US but not so good for the Islands.and the WC. But over all there has been not so bad as hurricans go. We had 2 cat 5's not bad in one year.

But we'll see how Karen does in the next few day in the shears. Maybe nothing I would guess.

[americanrebel]

I don't know about you, but I wouldn't want 2 Cat 5s hitting me almost back to back. That would level almost everything in their path. So I would say that is not a good thing.

Now I think I know what you meant, 2 Cat 5s in one season is not bad, but that is only if they weaken before making landfall or go fishing like a lot of Cat 5s do. But sadly, that is not what happened this year, they made landfall as Cat 5s, so I would say this has been a bad year.

Yeah, the US has gotten lucky so far, but not everybody has. We are not better than the people in Belize, the Islands, Mexico when it comes to Hurricanes, I feel sorry for them also.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KWBC 271353
NOAA2 0212A KAREN HDOB 19 20070927
133400 1317N 04651W 7811 02232 0083 +164 +119 223023 024 030 000 03
133500 1320N 04653W 7811 02230 0069 +177 +124 231015 022 030 000 00
133600 1323N 04656W 7811 02226 0064 +178 +128 227014 017 029 000 00
133700 1326N 04659W 7810 02227 0064 +176 +130 225013 017 031 000 00
133800 1329N 04701W 7809 02225 0055 +185 +126 235009 010 029 000 00
133900 1332N 04703W 7809 02223 0054 +182 +130 248006 008 026 000 00
134000 1336N 04705W 7811 02220 0045 +189 +127 322006 007 022 000 00
134100 1339N 04707W 7811 02214 0041 +189 +129 330005 006 021 000 00
134200 1342N 04709W 7811 02213 0040 +188 +133 345008 009 016 000 00
134300 1346N 04711W 7812 02210 0036 +189 +132 000010 011 017 000 00
134400 1349N 04713W 7811 02210 0038 +184 +135 017010 010 023 000 00
134500 1352N 04715W 7810 02211 0043 +179 +140 063012 013 035 000 00
134600 1356N 04717W 7812 02213 0047 +178 +140 066016 017 040 000 00
134700 1359N 04719W 7812 02216 0054 +174 +144 082021 021 043 000 00
134800 1403N 04721W 7811 02218 0066 +163 +149 079025 026 046 000 00
134900 1406N 04723W 7812 02220 0071 +161 +141 077026 026 045 001 00
135000 1410N 04726W 7812 02226 0082 +154 +142 077027 027 045 000 00
135100 1414N 04728W 7812 02228 0087 +152 +143 078027 028 045 000 00
135200 1417N 04730W 7811 02230 0093 +147 +144 079025 026 044 000 00
135300 1421N 04732W 7811 02233 0096 +147 +143 081027 028 043 000 00

Extrapolated SLP in the center: 1004 hPa

[HenkL]

UZNT13 KWBC 271357
XXAA 77148 99140 70473 04147 99007 ///// 04550 00/// 24000 05053
92/// 21402 07550 85/// 19204 08535 88999 77999
31313 09608 81346
61616 NOAA2 0212A KAREN OB 12
62626 SPL 1396N04734W 1349 DLM WND 07043 006781=
XXBB 77148 99140 70473 04147 00007 ///// 11003 24200 22983 23000
33804 174// 44781 17633
21212 00007 04550 11990 05557 22966 06559 33928 07051 44790 08523
55784 10022 66781 08022
31313 09608 81346
61616 NOAA2 0212A KAREN OB 12
62626 SPL 1396N04734W 1349 DLM WND 07043 006781=

[wxman57]

Here's a surface analysis and satellite. Buoy is 90 mi. NE of Karen 's exposed center reporting 35 kts. I get a movement toward 305 degrees at 12.5 kts past 3 hours.