ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[smw1981]

Thank you smw1981. The local mets are covering the general Mobile metro area but they are leaving out the Fairhope/Point Clear area, which along with western areas, recieved significant damage with Kat. Just walked out onto our pier...the waves are amazing! Glad we took the boat out of the lift as the waves are already breaking over the lower deck. Husband and I just decided to stay at the house because at this point there is no point in leaving so late. If things continue to progress, I should get some awesome pics tonight.....and here's hoping to very little damage. Thanks again!

No problem lele...I am in Panama City and there are some pretty amazing waves here now, so I can only imagine how it is looking over there. My parents live on Dog River in Mobile, but it is too late to call them to see how things are in Mobile Co. It was definitely a good call to take your boat out of the water/lift...I would do that even for a tropical storm! As for the pier...hopefully it will be ok too (from the waves I mean..not the surge).

In Panama City, the surge/waves is higher up than I expected...the waves are now crashing where we laid out yesterday and this morning (and no, I am not exaggerating!). I really didn't expect that this far east, but I haven't really been paying attention to what would happen in PC because all of my attention has been on SE LA.

Good luck over there!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just saw on WWL-TV 4, Plaquemines Parish decided, just a few hours ago, to build a temporary levee across LA 23, to try to save part of the parish. They had to build up a ramp, because even after dark with rain already hitting, people still coming up in vehicles from South end of the parish. I didn't see where in the parish they were building a levee.

[SoupBone]

Looking at Fox 8 live the surge seems to be getting bigger and the bad part of the storm has yet to revel itself.

http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/gustav.html

[Hurricane Cheese]

Flash Flood warnings have been extended into Oklahoma and Arkansas. As a side note, water meters for and around New Orleans/Baton Rouge are holding steady or rising slowly.

Oooh, do you have links for the water marks around N.O.? I'm becoming increasingly worried about the surge. The surge forecast from NHC suggests the max surge will be north of the Mississippi River but just a hair below Lake Borgne which feeds into Pontchartrain. Then, with the expanding wind field some are suggesting, I'm worried the surge might end up being worse than what's being talked about. I posed a question on the storm surge thread here in Active Storms a minute ago that I hope people who know will answer.

I'd like to know this too. My gut tells me people are going to be surprised by the surge with this storm, from NOLA westward. But that's just my gut. Very concerned about those levees that weren't affected or altered post-Katrina.

[Sonica]

Old FEMA Inspector here... We can't help but look at every wobble and pray. If you could see the kids faces in the back seat..thinking here we go again. Breaks my heart...here we go again. In Walker by Baton Rouge.

[Stormcenter]

Gustav has moved 5N 7W since the last advisory. The pressure 955mb and tops wind 115mph.

[Janie2006]

Just saw on WWL-TV 4, Plaquemines Parish decided, just a few hours ago, to build a temporary levee across LA 23, to try to save part of the parish. They had to build up a ramp, because even after dark with rain already hitting, people still coming up in vehicles from South end of the parish. I didn't see where in the parish they were building a levee.

Attempting to evacuate as a hurricane approaches is an extraordinarily bad idea. Despite the best efforts, sometimes people will never learn.

Edited to add: I should say that attempting to evacuate as a hurricane makes its final approach is a really bad idea.

[cpdaman]

grand isle has very small changes in sea level between high and low tide and it appears that gustav will becoming ashore at low or mid tide (but with tide coming in)

http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/geographic.html

[senorpepr]

Added new charts fixed on Louisiana...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Thank you smw1981. The local mets are covering the general Mobile metro area but they are leaving out the Fairhope/Point Clear area, which along with western areas, recieved significant damage with Kat. Just walked out onto our pier...the waves are amazing! Glad we took the boat out of the lift as the waves are already breaking over the lower deck. Husband and I just decided to stay at the house because at this point there is no point in leaving so late. If things continue to progress, I should get some awesome pics tonight.....and here's hoping to very little damage. Thanks again!

No problem lele...I am in Panama City and there are some pretty amazing waves here now, so I can only imagine how it is looking over there. My parents live on Dog River in Mobile, but it is too late to call them to see how things are in Mobile Co. It was definitely a good call to take your boat out of the water/lift...I would do that even for a tropical storm! As for the pier...hopefully it will be ok too (from the waves I mean..not the surge).

In Panama City, the surge/waves is higher up than I expected...the waves are now crashing where we laid out yesterday and this morning (and no, I am not exaggerating!). I really didn't expect that this far east, but I haven't really been paying attention to what would happen in PC because all of my attention has been on SE LA.

Good luck over there!

Heck, we're all of the way over here on Treasure Island, FL. (Southwestern tip of Pinellas County) and we just went downstairs to check our boat a few minutes ago, (high tide @ approx. 1:30a.m.) and part of our dock is under water!!! Normally at high tide we still have approx. 2 1/2 to 3 feet before water reaches the walkway planks!

That can give you an idea as to how much water Gustav must be pushing around!

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, we can FINALLY say for sure now that no intensification will take place. As far as weakening goes? Hmm, that's hard to say. It's 50/50 whether it stays steady or weakens a little before land.

[cpdaman]

and here is a great site to track storm surge from , apparently it gives live heights (assuming until date goes out?) just click on a link in louisiana


http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/geographic.html

click on the link at grand isle ....look at the current stats....going down hill fast

appears to hit near houma near high tide peak

[drezee]

URNT15 data from NE quad missing from 1:54 to 2:03...in the strongest part of the eyewall

[cpdaman]

reminder satelite eclipse just ended and new frames should be available in a matter of minutes

grand isle 66 knot wind gust 15 minutes ago

[RL3AO]

URNT12 KNHC 010620
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 01/05:53:10Z
B. 27 deg 48 min N
088 deg 58 min W
C. 700 mb 2721 m
D. 64 kt
E. 229 deg 11 nm
F. 317 deg 062 kt
G. 229 deg 014 nm
H. 954 mb
I. 17 C/ 3053 m
J. 23 C/ 3042 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF308 2607A GUSTAV OB 11
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 103 KT NE QUAD 06:02 Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C, 229 / 14NM


Still no eyewall reported.

[kurtpage]

and here is a great site to track storm surge from , apparently it gives live heights (assuming until date goes out?) just click on a link in louisiana


http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/geographic.html

click on the link at grand isle ....look at the current stats....going down hill fast

appears to hit near houma near high tide peak

Take a look at Shell Beach

[Bunkertor]

WTNT32 KNHC 010555
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
100 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SPREADING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AS GUSTAV NEARS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND
TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY
OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.8 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...
275 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 255
MILES...410 KM...SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. THIS POSITION
IS ALSO ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT FOURCHON ALONG
THE LOUISIANA COAST.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WOULD REACH THE LOUISIANA
COAST BY MIDDAY TODAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES...350 KM.
BOOTHVILLE LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 50 MPH...80
KM/HR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE COAST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI...ARKANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY.

REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...27.8 N...88.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[stormy1970al]

I am in Fairhope and some wind but conditions are not too bad at my house. Now I am not sure what is going on down at the bay though. I really need to go back to sleep.

[Wthrman13]

It's possible that they aren't considering the inner spiral bands eyewall fragments, which would jive with the previous VDM mentioning the "spiral band structure".

[tolakram]

0600Z


My bedtime, good nite and good luck all.