Florida Weather

[Patrick99]

Well, the East coast seabreeze looks as if it's pushed well inland, yet again, without really firing much up over the metro areas as it went. I guess we won't be getting any storms later today, barring some rogue outflow boundary.

[asd123]

Seabreeze collision happened not too long ago in cfla.

I am seeing an interesting phenomena on the radar; blowback convection. Correct me if I am wrong, but this happens when an outflow boundary pushes strongly against the main directional steering component (wsw; main direction west). In the images, while the steering flow is out of the wsw; there is a strong outflow boundary pushing in the opposite direction. Instead of the storms moving from wsw to ene, they are blowing back to the west. This gives the illusion that the storms are moving from the ene.

All images courtesy of Wunderground

Blowback convection from Melbourne radar site

Tampa site showing outflow boundary

[Patrick99]

So how was it that almost all the convection that was around yesterday evening, somehow managed to entirely avoid the SE Florida metro areas? I watched the radar for much of the night, and there was a bare spot over us all evening. Any time a storm would approach, it'd fizzle before reaching us.

Surely we get hit today with some good storms.....right??

[StormingB81]

Well I am in Kissimmee and teo days combined only got a half inch both days combined

[StormTracker]

So how was it that almost all the convection that was around yesterday evening, somehow managed to entirely avoid the SE Florida metro areas? I watched the radar for much of the night, and there was a bare spot over us all evening. Any time a storm would approach, it'd fizzle before reaching us.

Surely we get hit today with some good storms.....right??

Hey Patrick, you said everything that I was thinking all day yesterday! We're in what I refer to as, "the black hole"! I see it happen so much, and it's frustrating, especially when we need rain so badly! I did all my yard work yesterday in preparation for these next few days of this "alleged" precipitation! We should get a little something today hopefully.

[Patrick99]

So how was it that almost all the convection that was around yesterday evening, somehow managed to entirely avoid the SE Florida metro areas? I watched the radar for much of the night, and there was a bare spot over us all evening. Any time a storm would approach, it'd fizzle before reaching us.

Surely we get hit today with some good storms.....right??

Hey Patrick, you said everything that I was thinking all day yesterday! We're in what I refer to as, "the black hole"! I see it happen so much, and it's frustrating, especially when we need rain so badly! I did all my yard work yesterday in preparation for these next few days of this "alleged" precipitation! We should get a little something today hopefully.

Hasn't happened yet though! I see plenty of clouds around but no rain...and a look at the radar confirms it. We really are in the black hole for rain this year, it seems.

I think the excuse for today will be "it was too cloudy all day for any convection to fire up." The past couple weeks it's been "too much easterly flow"

[MiamiensisWx]

We should see a significant turnaround this coming winter, 2015–16, if past climatology is any indication. If El Niño matures into a strong event, with an Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) of +1.5° C or greater, in September-October-November or later, past history indicates that the wintertime precipitation departure was well above average in most of the Southeast, with the most significant + anomalies in Central and South FL. Thus the region would likely see above-average wintertime rainfall in the event that tropical cyclones fail to make landfall this season.



The flip side to this benefit is an increase in severe weather. During strong Niños maturing in or after SON, fully 38 significant, meaning (E)F2–5, tornadoes occurred during January-April in FL, including eight of (E)F3+ strength. These represent ≈25% of all significant tornadoes and ≈36% of all (E)F3+ tornadoes in FL for this time frame. Of these tornadoes, ≈74% (28) of the (E)F2–5s and ≈88% (seven) of the (E)F3+ events occurred when the mean Jan-Apr Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was positive.

Source: http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/

[TheStormExpert]

YAWN!!!

This summer here where I'm located in Southeast Florida is looking like IMO it's going to be a relatively dry and boring(with lack of afternoon T-Storms) summer and has been just that so far! Seriously, we couldn't get more than a drop or two of rain from the overhyped moisture surge from early to mid last week! What gives!? We are definitely in a Black Hole year like some have mentioned on here. These years are the most aggravating since it can be raining regularly areas just north, south, east, and west of you, but my location will get NADA! I can remember a few summers that have been like this too with the most recent being 2010 of I'm right.

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami snippet:

MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR TYPICAL SCATTERED-NUMEROUS CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP AND FOCUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. STABILITY INDICES DON`T CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY...SO ORDINARY TSTORMS ARE FORECAST WITH JUST A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. SO FAR AN UNEVENTFUL BEGINNING OF THIS
RAINY SEASON. THEN MID-LATE WEEK...ACTIVITY MAY ONLY BECOME
ISOLATED WITH FOCUS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AS A MORE
ESTABLISHED EASTERLY WIND FLOW ENSUES SOUTH OF A STRONGER RIDGE.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[psyclone]

So far the west coast has been winning the rainfall derby but the season remains VERY young. I keep reminding myself that the rainy season in my area typically begins around June 10 so everything I've gotten so far is a bonus. Some rainy seasons do favor one coast over the other but in many cases there's plenty of back and forth and everyone eventually gets dumped on.

[gatorcane]

Interesting nws Miami snippet:

IT`S INTERESTING TO NOT THAT AVERAGE QPF OFF THE GFS-ECMWF THROUGH
WEEK`S END IS ONLY 0.5-1.0 INCH EAST COAST AND 1-3" INTERIOR/GULF
COAST...THIS DURING ONE OF THE RAINIEST CLIMATOLOGICAL TIMES OF
THE YEAR. /GREGORIA

Record warm string and relatively dry rainy season so far. Saharan dust is on the way too from the east end of week.

[MiamiensisWx]

Interesting nws Miami snippet:

IT`S INTERESTING TO NOT THAT AVERAGE QPF OFF THE GFS-ECMWF THROUGH
WEEK`S END IS ONLY 0.5-1.0 INCH EAST COAST AND 1-3" INTERIOR/GULF
COAST...THIS DURING ONE OF THE RAINIEST CLIMATOLOGICAL TIMES OF
THE YEAR. /GREGORIA

Record warm string and relatively dry rainy season so far. Saharan dust is on the way too from the east end of week.

Drought conditions have actually worsened and expanded across South Florida as we head into June.

Current conditions
Previous week

The ridge looks to hold its ground at least through the medium range.

[TheStormExpert]

We'll see how well his materializes and pans out. So far over the past month or two any chance we have here where I live of a decent shot of some rain, the forecast bust big time!

Keeping my fingers cross that this time it's different! Even TWC and Local Met's are bullish on rainfall focusing more on the East Coast of Florida for Tuesday and Wednesday, just hope it's plentiful in coverage unlike it's been.

.RAIN CHANCES SHIFTING TOWARDS THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO SWING FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE MORE
SPREAD OUT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
OVER THE INTERIOR AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING
FLOW TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ALLOW FOR
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND NORTHEAST AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN BREAK DOWN LATE THIS WEEK OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW
OVER THE AREA TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATE THIS WEEK, FOCUSING
THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS.
HOWEVER...THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS CAN STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW
IN PLACE. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[HURRICANELONNY]

It is a little weird. When you read all the forecasts and there like day and night. Miami Hearld: Partly Cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Weather Channel: 80% chance of thunderstorms today and tonight. Miami Discussion: winds turning to ssw today that should leave to more moisture. 610 AM radio weather: Partly Cloudy with a stray shower.

[NDG]

Glad that today and tomorrow we are seeing westerly winds, looking forward to the thunderstorm activity in our part of FL.

But as usual so far this year the easterly winds will be back by Friday into next week pushing most of the activity back to the west coast and to make things worst a mid level ridge will move in.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, and it is very dry in portions of Northeast Florida. Here at my locale since May 1, I have only measured just over 2 inches of rain. This persistent easterly flow has really kept the rain well inland. I can not remember such a lengthy period of easterly flow. Hopefully, the steering flow will become more west or southwest to bring in moisture flow out of the GOM to increase our rain and thunderstorm coverage at least for the next few days, although westerly wind flow will bring in warmer temps into the lower 90s at least in areas. Definitely need the rain! One of the driest starts to the supposed rainy season I can recall in recent memory.

[Patrick99]

It looks like the SE Miami-Dade municipalities actually have a chance of real storminess today. My fingers are crossed...the storms are out there, but they aren't quite here yet! Hopefully they won't fizzle over the south of Flagler, east of the Turnpike dead zone.....haha

Edit...the storms are spreading apart north and south as they near that little bubble of the worst drought conditions. Typical. But really intense cell about to nail West Hialeah.

[StormTracker]

It looks like the SE Miami-Dade municipalities actually have a chance of real storminess today. My fingers are crossed...the storms are out there, but they aren't quite here yet! Hopefully they won't fizzle over the south of Flagler, east of the Turnpike dead zone.....haha

Edit...the storms are spreading apart north and south as they near that little bubble of the worst drought conditions. Typical. But really intense cell about to nail West Hialeah.

I'm a little SW of Cutler Bay. Best rain I've seen in a long time! Finally!

[Patrick99]

Yeah, we finally got one in the Gables/South Miami area too. Thunder and everything!

[HURRICANELONNY]

We got 20 drops in hollywood.