ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronyan]

Recon is in the center now... on the way through the NW quadrant peak surface winds were measured at just 82 knots. Pressure looks to be around 940.

What? Really?

It's one measurement and it's just one quadrant of a storm that's interacting with land, so let's wait and see what the rest of the storm is doing. That said, there's no substitute for actual recon in the eyewall, because if I had a dollar for every poster watching the IR satellite and talking about "rapid intensification" I'd have a house of my own on Key West to be worried about today!

No one is saying RI is underway now. We don't have all the data and it literally has barely left Cuba.

[jasons2k]

Already a 75mph gust at MIA Int'l.

And 939mb....this is not good for the Keys.

[tolakram]

Saved radar loop

[Airboy]

Probaly need some more hours to clear away from land to really get going again.

[GCANE]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 18:30:41Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°08'N 80°14'W (23.1333N 80.2333W)

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 82kts (~ 94.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NW (305°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 26° at 92kts (From the NNE at ~ 105.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 939mb (27.73 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,066m (10,059ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)

[jasons2k]

Probaly need some more hours to clear away from land to really get going again.

It already is....looks much better (structure) than this morning and pressure is dropping. Off to the races again from here on out.

[AdamFirst]

One looter already arrested in St. Lucie County.

[tolakram]

We do have a chat room for those wanting to talk to other storm2k users.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=111692

[GCANE]

[Airboy]

M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles

hm.

[AdamFirst]

Probaly need some more hours to clear away from land to really get going again.

It already is....looks much better (structure) than this morning and pressure is dropping. Off to the races again from here on out.

The water vapor imagery shows the storm expanding to the north around the core as well.

[tarheelprogrammer]

EWRC soon?

[Blown Away]

Probably @15 miles off track to the E...

[KBBOCA]

Miami dade and broward down to 10% chance of hurricane force it's now more like a TS event down here. Glad serious impacts not expected here

Don't let your guard down just yet!
It would appear wind risk & surge risk have decreased somewhat for SE FL if track holds, but I'm seeing extreme rain risk & greatly increased tornado risk, so I think there could still be some serious problems in the area!

[Zadok]

We packed up and left Hobe Sound Florida because a monster cat 5 was supposed to buzz saw up the east coast . Drove through a horrible evac up the turnpike and I-75. We are now sitting in a hotel in Troy Alabama eating greasy spoon takeout food and now it appears we are in the cone AGAIN!

[floridasun78]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGD1byu7gJc

Rooftop stream from Key West

wfor show that stream ty for link

[curtadams]

On AVN you can see outflow to the NW hit a wall, probably showing the first effects of the trough that will turn her. Irma's own intensification is extra obvious on WV, by the way.

[tolakram]

We packed up and left Hobe Sound Florida because a monster cat 5 was supposed to buzz saw up the east coast . Drove through a horrible evac up the turnpike and I-75. We are now sitting in a hotel in Troy Alabama eating greasy spoon takeout food and know it appears we are in the cone AGAIN!

Food sounds good.

[AdamFirst]

Miami dade and broward down to 10% chance of hurricane force it's now more like a TS event down here. Glad serious impacts not expected here

Don't let your guard down just yet!
It would appear wind risk & surge risk have decreased somewhat for SE FL if track holds, but I'm seeing extreme rain risk & greatly increased tornado risk, so I think there could still be some serious problems in the area!

Category 1 wind gusts are still highly possible along the southeast coast tomorrow, and if the center is east of current predictions (which is still possible) then even more severe conditions could be possible.

[jabman98]

In this thread last night someone posted that DirecTV was starting hurricane coverage on a dedicated channel (361-2) where they use the feed from local stations. I have DirecTV so checked it out today. They jump around to various local stations in Florida. It's a good way to get an idea of what's happening there from a more local perspective.

One station showed a photo of Robbie's at mile marker 77 at Islamorada in the Keys. It's already partially underwater. I really can't imagine how bad this is going to be for the Keys.