ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bevgo]

Let's talk surge a bit. After Katrina I came across houses that were deposited in the street. My home had some water.....not sure how much as we bought it long after Katrina but the house next door was a pile of bricks. It is still nothing but a slab and piles of bricks. Surge is really bad. I had a patient close to a source of water....not ON the water. His home went under. He was sheltering in his truck because home was a trailer. He had to swim out when water filled his truck. He was covered by fire ant bites from them being in the water. Said he saw lots of snakes and they were all in the trees. He was unable to rest while swimming due to so many snakes and ants. Katrina was a day storm so he was able to see well. If it had been night he likely would died from grabbing a limb and being bitten by a snake. Run from water, hide from wind.

[Andrew92]

According to NCWeatherWizard's definition and the latest advisory at 11 PM EDT, Matthew needs to be within 60 miles of Florida (hurricane winds extend 60 miles out). As of the latest position update that just came out, Matthew is 60 miles east of Fort Pierce.

Matthew is therefore very close to counting as a Florida hit as a hurricane, if not already, if I am understanding everything correctly.

-Andrew92

[funster]

One big eye for Matt. Storm surge could be really bad for GA/SC especially if it Matthew does not weaken some from interacting with Florida coast. Remember all the surge to the right of Katrina.

[utweather]

For those that can't reach NHC.

NHC Should do a combined map with Nicole, since they would both fit in the same one.

They have Nicole strengthening and Matthew weakening between Monday and Tuesday. That is very interesting. I'll have to sleep on that one.

[Aric Dunn]

You have to be blind to not notice the westward progression on the western outer eyewall. So straight forward. Watching the inner eye isnbad.

[kpost]

Twc is stating they are expecting the outer eyewall to fully hit Brevard county, and that the winds seem to be as high or higher as the inner eyewall. Direct hit or not, this will be a rough night for brevard.

[ncweatherwizard]

Rightfully so. It's BS to claim a wobble as evidence that the storm is making a hard left turn. Either that or you both are legally blind. I really wish there could be a forum just for pro met discussion. It gets old having to sift through all the noise here. I can't believe how much patience some of the mods have.

This would be an amazing forum, especially if lurkers were allowed to read but not comment.

We have a subforum where only pro-mets and approved amateurs can post...it's called "Tropical Analysis" and you can access it from this ATL forum (its at the top). But no one really uses it...because 90% of members can't post there.

This is a discussion thread for EVERYONE to use, regardless of skill level. Cutting out the majority of users would be completely against everything this site has been about and built itself on over the years.

There used to be something like that, but it wasn't really frequented all that much. I don't really come on here much anymore, but I prefer just having things the way they are now. I can cut through the BS pretty easily, and I enjoy answering questions when I can.

[stephen23]

You have to be blind to not notice the westward progression on the western outer eyewall. So straight forward. Watching the inner eye isnbad.

Thank you

[Hurricaneman]

You have to be blind to not notice the westward progression on the western outer eyewall. So straight forward. Watching the inner eye isnbad.

especially since its just about gone

[dexterlabio]

I haven't logged in in YEARS...But just wanted to give some well wishes to all of you on the East Coast. Missed tracking with you all. Even though I'm in California now where the weather couldn't be more boring, I will have to check in more often. Stay safe!

California weather is perfect IMO particularly in SFO Bay Area. If you're originally from Florida, perhaps you should start getting used to less tropical activity and more ground shaking. Just kidding



Re: Matthew's cocentric eyewalls,,, I don't know but I think it does not matter whether the inner eyewall misses Flordia or not. The outer ring is huge and is starting (or appears) to take over , so I assume that is where the craziest winds are now..

[WilmingtonSandbar]

It's also a function of the geographic distribution of posters. We have a boatload of Florida folks on here and while I can't speak for the rest of them...when the cane is in radar range...I'm not looking a models. North Carolina will get its deserved attention in due time. But first we have FL/GA/SC.

I'm going to have to disagree with you on one point Psyclone. Even though this board is probably in the top 3 of tropical weather information sites, it has always been notoriously Florida centric. When Matthew clears Florida, traffic will drop off 80% from what it is now. GA, SC, and NC will not "get it's deserved attention". I'm not upset. I know that at least 80%, and probably 90% of the members are from Florida, so I understand. I just wish that the zeal for tropical weather was as strong when Florida wasn't effected.

I think that when there is a Texas or La. threat the board traffic ramps up too. I think a lot of members live there too.
I know when there is a threat there and a possible landfall; I refrain from posting. They don't need my "sage wisdom" when they are under the gun. I respect their space then.

I personally would like sage wisdom, even if it is from India. Wisdom is always good.

[ncweatherwizard]

According to NCWeatherWizard's definition and the latest advisory at 11 PM EDT, Matthew needs to be within 60 miles of Florida (hurricane winds extend 60 miles out). As of the latest position update that just came out, Matthew is 60 miles east of Fort Pierce.

Matthew is therefore very close to counting as a Florida hit as a hurricane, if not already, if I am understanding everything correctly.

-Andrew92

Not quite. It needs to be within a radius of maximum wind. So that's still, I don't know, about 20-30 miles out just eyeballing it.

[craptacular]

AF307 just did a little 360 degree counterclockwise loop on the last pass through the eye. I wonder if they were trying to get a read on the two eyewalls as we're seeing radar showing that the inner eyewall may finally be getting ripped apart.

[JtSmarts]

This would be an amazing forum, especially if lurkers were allowed to read but not comment.

We have a subforum where only pro-mets and approved amateurs can post...it's called "Tropical Analysis" and you can access it from this ATL forum (its at the top). But no one really uses it...because 90% of members can't post there.

This is a discussion thread for EVERYONE to use, regardless of skill level. Cutting out the majority of users would be completely against everything this site has been about and built itself on over the years.

There used to be something like that, but it wasn't really frequented all that much. I don't really come on here much anymore, but I prefer just having things the way they are now. I can cut through the BS pretty easily, and I enjoy answering questions when I can.

I actually still have some audio files somewhere that you uploaded back in 2003 for Hurricane Isabel. It's great to have you here for Matthew!

[kpost]

Rightfully so. It's BS to claim a wobble as evidence that the storm is making a hard left turn. Either that or you both are legally blind. I really wish there could be a forum just for pro met discussion. It gets old having to sift through all the noise here. I can't believe how much patience some of the mods have.

This would be an amazing forum, especially if lurkers were allowed to read but not comment.

We have a subforum where only pro-mets and approved amateurs can post...it's called "Tropical Analysis" and you can access it from this ATL forum (its at the top). But no one really uses it...because 90% of members can't post there.

This is a discussion thread for EVERYONE to use, regardless of skill level. Cutting out the majority of users would be completely against everything this site has been about and built itself on over the years.

I completely agree and thank you I was not aware of that forum. I love this forum but sometimes when there are different views it would be nice to see only the educated discussing it.(which I am not)

[Sanibel]

For that person who asked, I doubt the high tide in Melbourne would affect track.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Yea, the inner eyewall has completely opened up and is merging with the contracting and intensifying outer eyewall. I don't see how the eye avoids the Cape if this trend continues.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Looks like the ERC is just about complete. Less then half the Inner Eye wall remains... Should still have some time to strengthen some over the Gulf Stream before land fall.

[Aric Dunn]

Stick your thumb or paper or something over the inner eyewall and watch the progression of the western eyewall. Dont be decived

[kpost]

For that person who asked, I doubt the high tide in Melbourne would affect track.

Not track but surge was my concern. Thank you