ATL: IRMA - Models

[Steve]

The W march hasn't stopped for almost 2 days, no reason not to think it continues until we see some stability. Kinda surprised the models didn't pickup on the strong ridging...

thats funny my house was not in the cone yesterday. Not trying to start a fight but the cone corrects itself constantly. to say the cone is all knowing all powerful 72 hours is out is contrary to all facts and observations i have made in my 14 years watching this forum.

36 hours ago the cone said that Savannah was going to get the brunt of a landfalling Cat 3 storm. Now it looks like we might get no more than a good summer thunderstorm. Go figure.

They really mean what they say when they point out the 175+ mile error in the 4-5 day timeframe of the cone. Folks tend to forget that when looking at the graphic...

Be thankful if y'all end up lucking out. I wouldn't say afternoon thunderstorm though. Depending on where it is in relation, no doubt you will get feeder moisture and probably TS conditions. We got a couple of bands and a few inches of rain with Hurricane Harvey, and I'll take that ll day over what Houston, Port Arthur, et al faced and are facing. Look at some of the radar derived products and satellite products. Not that they're necessarily going to be right, but with three days to go:

NAM 12km 18Z - As Irma comes north, she becomes northern weighted and interacts with the front. You get spread out energy on the NE side from an onshore perspective. There is a lot of energy with Irma as a potential Cat 4 or 5.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

HWRF comes through with a few hard bands
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=500

GFS 12Z - Not the greatest "hurricane model" but you see the depiction
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=598

GFS 12Z IR Depcition
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

Take from me looking at this is it looks to come through in a matter of a few hours that far north. That's a good thing because we really don't need a slow moving storm at this point.

[boca]

Into what?

[Blinhart]

Seeing a trend west...i know people will say its impossible but I know Katrina, dennis, ivan and a bunch of other storms over the years have had once had florida west coast hook bullseye....back then they were sure of impact in tampa, fort myers area of florida but the cone kept moving with each update.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

It is impossible IMHO. So I'm going to say it.

yep, no cyclone is going to run directly into that.

Into what???? There is a trough to the North and Hurricane many miles to it's West and another Hurricane many miles to it's East. If anything this trough is stronger and will keep her more West until it starts moving back up.

[bamajammer4eva]

Seeing a trend west...i know people will say its impossible but I know Katrina, dennis, ivan and a bunch of other storms over the years have had once had florida west coast hook bullseye....back then they were sure of impact in tampa, fort myers area of florida but the cone kept moving with each update.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

It is impossible IMHO. So I'm going to say it.

From the looks of that, it should barely make it north of Tampa and turn a lot sharper to the Northeast than the models show

[facemane]

Into what?

The high pressure currently protecting the northern gulf. That's why Irma is expected to turn north

[jdjaguar]

Seeing a trend west...i know people will say its impossible but I know Katrina, dennis, ivan and a bunch of other storms over the years have had once had florida west coast hook bullseye....back then they were sure of impact in tampa, fort myers area of florida but the cone kept moving with each update.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html


It is impossible IMHO. So I'm going to say it.

From the looks of that, it should barely make it north of Tampa and turn a lot sharper to the Northeast than the models show

I am patiently awaiting the 11pm NHC discussion, and will plan accordingly

[Blown Away]

12z CMC/GEM over Lake O...

[Steve]

Seeing a trend west...i know people will say its impossible but I know Katrina, dennis, ivan and a bunch of other storms over the years have had once had florida west coast hook bullseye....back then they were sure of impact in tampa, fort myers area of florida but the cone kept moving with each update.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

It is impossible IMHO. So I'm going to say it.

From the looks of that, it should barely make it north of Tampa and turn a lot sharper to the Northeast than the models show

For sure. It's going to lift out though. This is one of the things we've been looking at for over a week. A point many have been making, as readers of this thread know, is that the trough would lift out and the high pressure following would force Irma at least somewhat west into the interior US. You could see the ridge moving across Canada days in advance on the models. And one of the aspects of the 2017 summer is that airmasses have been very progressive through Eastern Canada vs. slower, semi-permanent or locked patterns you sometimes get up there in some summers. Here's an even better view which is the Water Vapor Eastern US which shows the Trough with the nose of one of the embedded ULLs almost to Lake Erie and pulling off ENE. The general surge looks like it is going to get into about Tennessee or North Carolina before lifting out while the NC Gulf gets that "dry" wildcard kind of upper low coming down to reinforce what we have here.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif

Here's what the ECMWF at 12Z says will happen:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=498

[bamajammer4eva]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

It is impossible IMHO. So I'm going to say it.

From the looks of that, it should barely make it north of Tampa and turn a lot sharper to the Northeast than the models show

For sure. It's going to lift out though. This is one of the things we've been looking at for over a week. A point many have been making, as readers of this thread know, is that the trough would lift out and the high pressure following would force Irma at least somewhat west into the interior US. You could see the ridge moving across Canada days in advance on the models. And one of the aspects of the 2017 summer is that airmasses have been very progressive through Eastern Canada vs. slower, semi-permanent or locked patterns you sometimes get up there in some summers. Here's an even better view which is the Water Vapor Eastern US which shows the Trough with the nose of one of the embedded ULLs almost to Lake Erie and pulling off ENE. The general surge looks like it is going to get into about Tennessee or North Carolina before lifting out while the NC Gulf gets that "dry" wildcard kind of upper low coming down to reinforce what we have here.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif

Here's what the ECMWF at 12Z says will happen:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=498

Ok so that moving into Arkansas is what some had referred to as the 'Alabama Shortwave' that is supposed to pull Irma north across FL and eventually back NW across Ga into N Alabama

[crimi481]

I do not understand what will turn it north. Not as soon as forecast. Looks like it will get into e. gulf. Am i crazy?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, it looks like steering just completely collapsed here. Ridge doesn't look like it's progressing.

[gatorcane]

00Z NAM is not budging on its track into Southern Florida:

[LoveWeather12]

Wow, it looks like steering just completely collapsed here. Ridge doesn't look like it's progressing.

Could it shift east? I live on the east coast of Florida and the people think we are out of the woods

[Steve]

Wow, it looks like steering just completely collapsed here. Ridge doesn't look like it's progressing.

Could it shift east? I live on the east coast of Florida and the people think we are out of the woods

At best, you'll have tropical storm conditions and hurricane gusts. At worst, you're getting destroyed. Let people think what they want. Don't be them until you are out of the woods.

[Hurrilurker]

That might actually be about the best possible track assuming it's going to run up Florida. West coast gets strong winds but on the weaker side, and Miami, Orlando and all the populated east coast get some distance from the center.

[gigabite]

This is the NHC 9-8-17 8:00PM gis track shapefile overlaid on the Ocean Heat Content Map. The depth of the heat content in the Caribbean Sea is considerably deeper than in the Gulf of Mexico.

[got ants?]

Wow, it looks like steering just completely collapsed here. Ridge doesn't look like it's progressing.

Could it shift east? I live on the east coast of Florida and the people think we are out of the woods

At best, you'll have tropical storm conditions and hurricane gusts. At worst, you're getting destroyed. Let people think what they want. Don't be them until you are out of the woods.

^very well said. I'm in Hollywood, just west of I95. We are not off the hook, until we are... won't know for sure for another 24 hrs.

[Steve]

Could it shift east? I live on the east coast of Florida and the people think we are out of the woods

At best, you'll have tropical storm conditions and hurricane gusts. At worst, you're getting destroyed. Let people think what they want. Don't be them until you are out of the woods.

^very well said. I'm in Hollywood, just west of I95. We are not off the hook, until we are... won't know for sure for another 24 hrs.

Yeah. Be careful. NAM 00Z is the only thing out. Looks like it wants to landfall at 39 hours on the Keys which is 3:00pm on Sunday. Not that it matters because all of South Florida will be in the action by then. It's the only thing out. It does hit Cuba, but it doesn't stall that much until right before the turn. And yeah, it's the NAM so take with crystals of salt.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

[Dean4Storms]

You can clearly see the ridge ENE of Irma and North of Jose and the Shortwave Trough dropping now SE into NW Arkansas that will help break the ridge over Florida and turn Irma Northward.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[HDGator]

Wow, it looks like steering just completely collapsed here. Ridge doesn't look like it's progressing.

Could it shift east? I live on the east coast of Florida and the people think we are out of the woods

At best, you'll have tropical storm conditions and hurricane gusts. At worst, you're getting destroyed. Let people think what they want. Don't be them until you are out of the woods.

Excellent summary of where we currently sit on the Florida east coast. These all clears have me ready to puke. People are hugely underestimating the size of the wind field on this storm. The surprise felt today by the west coast of Florida when they thought they were out of the woods is going to be felt by the east coast in 24-36 hours when they see the wind, surge and waves.

The continued reporting of model tracks by lines and spaghetti models lulls the public into a sense of complacency with the actual track of the storm based on its size. I hate to say it but this is going to be a tragic wake up call to both Florida coasts to not focus on the line.