Florida Weather

[NDG]

Yeap, NAO has a lot to do with the wx in FL during El Niño years. The research that I did is that during the winter and spring a positive NAO pattern means a warmer than average temps with near average to above average precip which this past winter and early spring was a good example. I will research late spring/summer season during El Niños.

[asd123]

What a past two days with wild storms and big heat for Orlando. I just wanted to add that NWS NOAA had a major temperature bust yesterday. Yesterday, Orlando International Airport reached 100 degrees for the first time since 1998! But even more amazing is that the forecast didn't call for anywhere near that. Here is NWS NOAA's forecast for yesterday made yesterday morning (scroll to bottom of the page for MCO temps) http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
You can Google Orlando hitting 100 degrees yesterday, I'll save some space and time not looking it up, plus it made the local news, so it should be very easy to find

Can someone explain to me how this happened? From what I understand, 850 mb temps were around 18 C and the skies were not perfectly clear.

[psyclone]

the excessive heat is really working on the sea temps... the gulf beaches around here now have water temps right around 90. if (when) we do manage to get a westerly/southwesterly flow that amount of warmth should favor heavy nocturnal/morning storms in our neck of the woods with good waterspout potential.

[northjaxpro]

The following links below sums up well just how dry it is here in Northeast Florida. Our area actually is the driest region in the peninsula currently.

Links

http://jacksonville.com/news/metro/2015 ... da-remains
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/Stat ... or.aspx?FL
http://flame.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/KBDI/


HOWEVER, there may be FINALLY a light at the end of the tunnel as it looks as if an upper level trough will begin to shape by next weekend, which will hopefully give us the pattern shift across the peninsula we desperately need to bring some widespread rain.


Excerpt from late afternoon AFD from the NWS Jax office:

RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HEIGHTS THEN
SLOWLY FALLING FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AS SURFACE TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN GA...WITH OUR
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENING NEXT WEEKEND AS A
SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EXPECT A
SIMILAR THUNDERSTORM PATTERN TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH
ACTIVITY INITIATING ALONG THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE AND OVER INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA TOWARDS NOON...WITH ACTIVITY MERGING NEAR I-95 BY LATE
AFTERNOON EACH DAY. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FRI-NEXT
WEEKEND...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE MORNING OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF AND WILL PROPAGATE INLAND AT A FASTER RATE. HIGH-
END SCATTERED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED EACH DAY...POSSIBLY NUMEROUS
LATER THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS FORCING ALOFT STRENGTHENS.

[gatorcane]

looks like finally a pattern change starting this weekend with storms along the East Coast of Florida during the afternoon.

[HURRICANELONNY]

NWS Miami not real enthused about the rain chances next weekend but I think will finally get the change.


Both of these
global models for now show the ridge over South Florida on Friday
and over the Florida Straits on Saturday into early next week. This
will mean that showers and storms on Friday would mainly be
concentrated over the interior with sea breeze interaction and then
shift to the interior and East Coast metropolitan area this weekend.
However, it would not appear that widepread activity be anticaped as
neither model shows much of a moisture increase. But maybe the East
Coast can begin experiencing some much needed rainfall.

[Patrick99]

I really hate this weather. Storms are what make our summers bearable. And to think, July is typically drier than June....do we have even drier weather coming up?

It's just bake in high sun, all day, every day. Not only is there no rain, there's barely any passing clouds for shade.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Yep. It could be near 100 up north but you know a cool down is coming. Down here it's coming in Nov.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Finally some concrete news on rain. My grass is almost fully brown:


Friday and into the upcoming weekend a cold front will build into
the Middle-Atlantic States and extend into the southeastern states.
The surface high pressure extending into the Florida Peninsula
will gradually shift eastward during this period with a transition
of surface south to southwesterly winds forecast Friday night
through the upcoming weekend. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected across the peninsula Friday through the weekend with
chances of showers/thunderstorms increasing over the eastern
peninsula and the Atlantic coast metropolitan areas as the southwesterly
flow prevails.

[StormingB81]

What a storm here in Kissimmee.....over 3 inches of rain and still raining....had like 4 power surges...lots of lightning and very close ones too thought I had to dive for cover....classic Florida afternoon storm.

[HURRICANELONNY]

What a storm here in Kissimmee.....over 3 inches of rain and still raining....had like 4 power surges...lots of lightning and very close ones too thought I had to dive for cover....classic Florida afternoon storm.

Lucky you

[gatorcane]

After a few days of this east flow abating over the weekend it looks like it returns early next week. NWS Miami snippet.

BY TUESDAY, THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO RETURN TO ITS CURRENT
STATE, WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MFL&issuedby=MFL&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Crossing my fingers we get some rain here over the weekend along the East Coast metro areas as it is very dry and this may be the only chance in a while.

[gatorcane]

You know it's bad when we have a SW flow setup (finally) for Sunday but the chances of rain aren't that high. Highly unusual given the time of year:

SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...WITH
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH MUCH DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. IT COULD END UP BEING A HOT AND
MAINLY DRY DAY AS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPLICITLY FORECAST AT THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE
MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS ESPECIALLY IF A SEA
BREEZE DOES NOT DEVELOP OR DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[gatorcane]

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
DESPITE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DRY AIRMASS
WILL ADVECT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH BELOW NRML PWATS INHIBITING
MORE THAN ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION. WITH THE DELAYED ONSET OF
SEA-BREEZE MAXIMA ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIKELY REACH A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. BY TUESDAY...DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD...AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED BY
MID-WEEK. THIS WILL RETURN THE REGION TO THE PATTERN OF
INTERIOR/WESTERN AFTERNOON CONVECTION...WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES
ALONG THE EAST COAST.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[TheStormExpert]

I hate to say it but we SO DESPERATELY need a Tropical System impact similar to Ana or Bill at some point this season. Of course we'd hope it wouldn't fizzle right before impact like TS Don(2011) did for Texas!


With all this dry and nice(not stormy) weather we've been having the past several months one would think Mother Nature has a surprise up her sleeve?

[NDG]

So sorry to hear about you guys in SE FL, in the other hand we here in central and north FL have lucked out these last couple of weeks. Today I drove down from southern GA through Jax, it was nonstop heavy rains down I-95 from Jax to Orlando, the squall was following me, at times the traffic was only moving around 20 mph, I have rain x on my windshield and it was even hard at times to see the car in front of me.
Heavy rains in the Orlando area will hopefully just mean that Lake O will not drop that much.

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: I hate to say it but we SO DESPERATELY need a Tropical System impact similar to Ana or Bill at some point this season. Of course we'd hope it wouldn't fizzle right before impact like TS Don(2011) did for Texas!


With all this dry and nice(not stormy) weather we've been having the past several months one would think Mother Nature has a surprise up her sleeve?

Yes that is what I am wondering too. This record-breaking dry June is indicative of a strong ridge pattern that would open up the door from a hit from the east. Super quiet past 10 years for South Florida, highly unusual summer (no) rainy season. Actually this ridge pattern started back in April if you recall. Absolutely dead in the Atlantic. Record highs in April and May. Record breaking low maxima this week. There is alot of bottled up heat across Florida and adjacent waters, that is for sure. Something doesn't seem right. Could this be the year, that year it is all quiet but that one wave develops at the right time and becomes a huge problem for us?

[gatorcane]

I just heard thunder in Boca Raton for the first time in several weeks. Rain should be starting soon. Minor miracles do happen!

[northjaxpro]

The weather is really fascinating. Up until this week, I had only measured less than 3 inches of rainfall since May 1 at my locale. The past couple of days, I have had two impressive thunderstorm cells move over my locale and they have dropped up to 4.5 inches over the past couple of days. Welcomed rainfall for sure, but the problem is some spots are getting drenched, some are missing out across this area. But, no question the rain of this week is a start hopefully to get into some resemblance of a rainy season. I hope the pattern will change overall soon for the entire peninsula, especially for the parched areas of the southeast peninsula. Hang in there. At some point the rain will come.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: I hate to say it but we SO DESPERATELY need a Tropical System impact similar to Ana or Bill at some point this season. Of course we'd hope it wouldn't fizzle right before impact like TS Don(2011) did for Texas!


With all this dry and nice(not stormy) weather we've been having the past several months one would think Mother Nature has a surprise up her sleeve?

Yes that is what I am wondering too. This record-breaking dry June is indicative of a strong ridge pattern that would open up the door from a hit from the east. Super quiet past 10 years for South Florida, highly unusual summer (no) rainy season. Actually this ridge pattern started back in April if you recall. Absolutely dead in the Atlantic. Record highs in April and May. Record breaking low maxima this week. There is alot of bottled up heat across Florida and adjacent waters, that is for sure. Something doesn't seem right. Could this be the year, that year it is all quiet but that one wave develops at the right time and becomes a huge problem for us?

Well, 1992 was a very quiet year too in the tropics, and we all know it only takes one storm to make the season a memorable one. Of course, Andrew formed and the rest was history. So, we all want rain and need it for sure, but I pray we don't see any scenario like Andrew come into play. A weak tropical storm bringing beneficial rainfall would help to relieve the drought conditions to the peninsula for sure however.