ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[bahamaswx]

She's definitely not vertically stacked anymore.

[ozonepete]

When can we start seeing the baroclinic forcing?

CrazyC83 is right. It's already starting. See how Sandy is beginning to push into the strong 1021 mb high to the north. That high is merging with a very strong 1028 mb high to the northeast . That is making the pressure gradient tighter (isobars are packing tighter together over Florida) and it will get worse because that high is not going to budge much at all.

[AdamFirst]

Local sports radio personalities are ranting about school closures in South Florida

Shows the amount of worry and urgency here
A laugh and a shrug

[Hurricane Alexis]

Could Sandy be similar to Gordon of 1994 in terms of effects in Florida as it may be more subtropical in it's closest approach?

[x-y-no]

She's definitely not vertically stacked anymore.

I don't see any sign of that from surface to 700mb at least - the flight level wind minimum from the HDOBs coincides perfectly with the surface center fix in the latest VDM.

[crimi481]

For us weather Dummies (I had to look it up)

Baroclinic Forcing - to become an extratropical cyclone, or become absorbed by the large frontal system

[nativefloridian]

Thanks for the clarification

[jhpigott]

When can we start seeing the baroclinic forcing?

CrazyC83 is right. It's already starting. See how Sandy is beginning to push into the strong 1021 mb high to the north. That high is merging with a very strong 1028 mb high to the northeast . That is making the pressure gradient tighter (isobars are packing tighter together over Florida) and it will get worse because that high is not going to budge much at all.

So am I correct in understanding we may here along the SE coast of Florida see the winds pick up, but it will be more associated with baroclinic forcing rather than from Sandy's wind field?

[Sanibel]

Overcast here on the edge of Sandy's outflow. Light wind. Cool.

[CrazyC83]

When can we start seeing the baroclinic forcing?

CrazyC83 is right. It's already starting. See how Sandy is beginning to push into the strong 1021 mb high to the north. That high is merging with a very strong 1028 mb high to the northeast . That is making the pressure gradient tighter (isobars are packing tighter together over Florida) and it will get worse because that high is not going to budge much at all.

So am I correct in understanding we may here along the SE coast of Florida see the winds pick up, but it will be more associated with baroclinic forcing rather than from Sandy's wind field?

That is correct. There is very little wind at all in the NW side of the storm (way less than TS force), the isobars will be the guiding force.

[crimi481]

Q. As Sandy continues to intensify and feels the H.P Ridge to her north,
would a stronger Storm tend to steer more towards N.W (W.N.W) - than a weaker Storm. (or the opposite?)

[Frank2]

Tight isobars = tylenol headache for me (lol)...

P.S. Hoping that that is only the case within a few degrees of the system - sometimes that does happen, as I recall but as posted the highs to the northeast are pretty strong...

[Aric Dunn]

For those who say that TS conditions are not likely ( for some reason) many reports coming of near sustained TS winds and gusting to 50mph and she is quite a good distance away. when the Nnw turn things will likely get worse. far SE florida may be spared but farther up the coast where she will make her closest approach may see higher winds than 50.

[CrazyC83]

For those who say that TS conditions are not likely ( for some reason) many reports coming of near sustained TS winds and gusting to 50mph and she is quite a good distance away. when the Nnw turn things will likely get worse. far SE florida may be spared but farther up the coast where she will make her closest approach may see higher winds than 50.

Yes, that is from the pressure gradient for the most part and not convection, another sign of beginning the transition.

[Sanibel]

The eye was just closing over from land interaction when it emerged. We'll see how quickly it recovers.


Sandy went right over the highest peak in Jamaica, Blue Mountain, and never flinched.


Euro says Jet will negative tilt near the Northeast.

[Frank2]

South Florida is often a windy region mostly due to pressure gradient winds (a/k/a tradewinds), especially in the spring...

[cycloneye]

11 AM advisory forecast track. Look at that left hook at the end.

[Aric Dunn]

For those who say that TS conditions are not likely ( for some reason) many reports coming of near sustained TS winds and gusting to 50mph and she is quite a good distance away. when the Nnw turn things will likely get worse. far SE florida may be spared but farther up the coast where she will make her closest approach may see higher winds than 50.

Yes, that is from the pressure gradient for the most part and not convection, another sign of beginning the transition.

none the less TS warnings were quite needed.

[Frank2]

The 11 a.m. package is now available...

P.S. It's already nearing 23N - only 3 degrees from our latitude, and perhaps will already be north of our latitude by sunset - well ahead of the thinking 36 hours ago...

P.P.S. Just my guess, but that NYC landfall will never happen - just too unlikely at this time of year...

Frank

[Bizzles]

11 AM advisory forecast track. Look at that left hook at the end.

http://oi46.tinypic.com/2rmw8ih.jpg

Aimed right at my house

Two TS Events in two years? Who moved NJ down to the GoM?