ATL: LAURA - Models

[stormlover2013]

147, icon is in middle of gom, this looks like a Andrew or Rita type path

[SouthFLTropics]

147, icon is in middle of gom, this looks like a Andrew or Rita type path

If I may ask, where are you getting this data from? Tidbits is only out to 99 hours now.

[stormlover2013]

147, icon is in middle of gom, this looks like a Andrew or Rita type path

If I may ask, where are you getting this data from? Tidbits is only out to 99 hours now.

Weatherbell

[SouthFLTropics]

114 hours, fairly big change in ICON

[Blow_Hard]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_98.gif

Not really what we want to see in Bay County/Panama City. I expect the track and the Models will change by early next week. Here's to hoping the GFS and Euro verify (but not holding my breath).

[stormlover2013]

168 hours will prob be New Orleans bound or west of it

[St0rmTh0r]

114 hours, fairly big change in ICON

https://i.imgur.com/GudNIBv.gif

Not seeing why it changed so much on intensity though?

[SouthFLTropics]

114 hours, fairly big change in ICON

https://i.imgur.com/GudNIBv.gif

Not seeing why it changed so much on intensity though?

Most likely due to the inflow from the south being cutoff by the big islands. Not enough room to work with. Plus it didn't come into the picture very strong to begin with. I'd dare say it probably didn't initialize correctly given the late breaking news tonight.

[stormlover2013]

Landfall around raceland la

[Cataegis96]

I wouldn't take any 0z run that fails to initialize a closed LLC too seriously. Will need to wait for future runs to analyze the current situation better.

[GeneratorPower]

114 hours, fairly big change in ICON

https://i.imgur.com/GudNIBv.gif

Not seeing why it changed so much on intensity though?

Pretty clear the models are struggling all season long. My bet is the amount of data being inputted is reduced. Lack of flights and lack of ships. With decreased numbers of flights. Remember: the NWS does extra balloon launches to supplement severe WX and hurricane forecasts. Those few extra balloons have a noticeable effect on forecast accuracy. A few extra G4 flights make a big difference. Now consider how much info is gathered from normal commercial air traffic. I bet the difference is huge.

[Blinhart]

168 hours will prob be New Orleans bound or west of it

I don't want to hear that.

[AxaltaRacing24]

114 hours, fairly big change in ICON

https://i.imgur.com/GudNIBv.gif

Not seeing why it changed so much on intensity though?

Pretty clear the models are struggling all season long. My bet is the amount of data being inputted is reduced. Lack of flights and lack of ships. With decreased numbers of flights. Remember: the NWS does extra balloon launches to supplement severe WX and hurricane forecasts. Those few extra balloons have a noticeable effect on forecast accuracy. A few extra G4 flights make a big difference. Now consider how much info is gathered from normal commercial air traffic. I bet the difference is huge.

i was worried about this happening after isaias. this might be worse though.

00z euro last night showed the wave being "poofed" by tonight. but hopefully tomorrow brings some better solutions.

[St0rmTh0r]

114 hours, fairly big change in ICON

https://i.imgur.com/GudNIBv.gif

Not seeing why it changed so much on intensity though?

Pretty clear the models are struggling all season long. My bet is the amount of data being inputted is reduced. Lack of flights and lack of ships. With decreased numbers of flights. Remember: the NWS does extra balloon launches to supplement severe WX and hurricane forecasts. Those few extra balloons have a noticeable effect on forecast accuracy. A few extra G4 flights make a big difference. Now consider how much info is gathered from normal commercial air traffic. I bet the difference is huge.

I can understand that. It's a broken record with these computer models though. Garbage in garbage out.

[DestinHurricane]

GFS and Euro should wake up soon. Probably not 00Z but sometime tomorrow. Maybe after recon.

[GeneratorPower]

Not seeing why it changed so much on intensity though?

Pretty clear the models are struggling all season long. My bet is the amount of data being inputted is reduced. Lack of flights and lack of ships. With decreased numbers of flights. Remember: the NWS does extra balloon launches to supplement severe WX and hurricane forecasts. Those few extra balloons have a noticeable effect on forecast accuracy. A few extra G4 flights make a big difference. Now consider how much info is gathered from normal commercial air traffic. I bet the difference is huge.

I can understand that. It's a broken record with these computer models though. Garbage in garbage out.

More like trying to put a puzzle together without the photo. There are holes in the data for current atmospheric state. Lots of holes.

[GeneratorPower]

GFS and Euro should wake up soon. Probably not 00Z but sometime tomorrow. Maybe after recon.

Maybe. But it’s possible the models continue to struggle with solutions. Since it takes a lot of factors being right for TCG to occur at all, it makes sense that holes in the data would trick the model into making assumptions about atmospheric state that aren’t correct. I think data starved models might be prone to showing fizzles and weak systems, and completely misplace troughs and ridges just days into the future. This is all just a guess by me but it makes sense to me anyway.

[eastcoastFL]

GFS and Euro should wake up soon. Probably not 00Z but sometime tomorrow. Maybe after recon.

What time is recon ? I wonder which run will have the recon data tomorrow ?

[SouthFLTropics]

Here's something relatively new on the 00z GFS. Maybe a center reformation NE of Puerto Rico??? Saw something like this on last nights 00z run as well and it went on to form and take it up the west coast of FL.

Correction - last nights 00z developed and went through the Keys and into the middle of the GOM.

5 Run trend starting on 00z last night.

[eastcoastFL]

00z GFS is rolling...