2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Stratton23]

00z CMC with a moderate tropical storm in the western gulf

[IcyTundra]

For what it's worth the CMC is showing a 998 MB TS into the TX coast in about 10 days. CMC, Euro, and GFS have all been showing a tropical wave moving through the Florida Straits into the GOM next weekend with the CMC and Euro being stronger than the GFS.

[Clearcloudz]

For what it's worth the CMC is showing a 998 MB TS into the TX coast in about 10 days. CMC, Euro, and GFS have all been showing a tropical wave moving through the Florida Straits into the GOM next weekend with the CMC and Euro being stronger than the GFS.

This would be very welcomed in Texas. Drought conditions are expected to worsen this week with several more days of 100+ degree weather.

[LarryWx]

For the first time recently, the UKMET has Atlantic TCG (favoring recurving from the MDR):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 16.7N 42.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.08.2023 144 16.8N 42.7W 1009 29
0000UTC 20.08.2023 156 17.1N 43.1W 1008 31
1200UTC 20.08.2023 168 17.8N 43.8W 1007 33

0Z UKMET develops a wave behind the one that the 12Z developed and at a lower latitude while moving it WNW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 12.0N 20.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.08.2023 168 12.7N 22.3W 1009 24

[LarryWx]

0Z 8/14 GFS: 4th out of last 5 with hurricane

GFS 9 runs since 7/31 with hurricane:

-7/31 12Z: hit SC 8/16
-8/3 6Z: hit MX/TX border 8/16
-8/6 0Z: MDR 8/18-21
-8/9 18Z: just off SC 8/25
-8/11 0Z: GOM just off LA 8/26
-8/13 0Z: GOM 8/26-8
-8/13 6Z: GOM 8/25-6 that hits MS 8/26-7.
-8/13 18Z: GOM 8/25 hits S TX 8/26
-8/14 0Z : off SE US coast 8/26-29

[Jr0d]

While all.the model runs showing potential CONUS landfalls, I think it is safe to say things are heating up and possibly as early as next weekend some of us might be dusting off our hurricane plans.

Hopefully no monsters like Ian, but with all this hot water I am afraid the threat of another devastating hurricane is extremely high.

[REDHurricane]

00z GEFS and GEPS showing a concerning wind shear environment in the Caribbean/Gulf in the last week of the month:

GEFS 8/30


GEPS 8/30


Edit: 00z EPS in agreement

EPS 8/29

[Blown Away]

06z GFS still showing Central American Gyre (CAG) which is a dominating feature in Caribbean/GOM. GFS keeps delaying it so IMO this is another GFS phantom storm and messes with the TW moving across the MDR.

[Stratton23]

GFS now shows some development of the wave thats expected to cross and move towards the W. Gulf, Canadian slightly stronger at 997 mb

[LarryWx]

The 12Z UKMET for the first time in three runs has no TCG over its 7 day forecast period.

[wxman57]

I see that the 12Z GFS is back to its old self in driving a hurricane into the southwest Louisiana coast in two weeks. I completely believe it, of course.

Also, most models do indicate a wave moving across the northern Gulf next weekend and moving into the NW Gulf coast early next week. Could that mean a little rain? I can't remember what rain looks like.

[Stormcenter]

What is this thing you call “rain”?

I see that the 12Z GFS is back to its old self in driving a hurricane into the southwest Louisiana coast in two weeks. I completely believe it, of course.

Also, most models do indicate a wave moving across the northern Gulf next weekend and moving into the NW Gulf coast early next week. Could that mean a little rain? I can't remember what rain looks like.

[lsuhurricane]

While still highly unlikely that a CAG-like feature occurs in the way that the GFS is prompting, it is interesting that the 12z Euro shows something very similar emerging at the end of its run.



This is also supported by its ensembles as well.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1691191180002750464

[IcyTundra]

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1691191180002750464

Shear doesn't look too high in the gulf next week certainly not high enough to limit development. Main limiting factor looks to be dry air in the Gulf next week. We'll see what happens.

[captainbarbossa19]

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1691191180002750464

Shear doesn't look too high in the gulf next week certainly not high enough to limit development. Main limiting factor looks to be dry air in the Gulf next week. We'll see what happens.

Goodness. I completely forgot about the case with Hanna. I also remember models seriously struggling later in the season with storms like Laura. Some models were not showing any development until it was on its way to becoming a hurricane in the Gulf!

[Cpv17]

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1691191180002750464

Shear doesn't look too high in the gulf next week certainly not high enough to limit development. Main limiting factor looks to be dry air in the Gulf next week. We'll see what happens.

Goodness. I completely forgot about the case with Hanna. I also remember models seriously struggling later in the season with storms like Laura. Some models were not showing any development until it was on its way to becoming a hurricane in the Gulf!

I remember Hanna very well. It was a Cat 1 hurricane and the Euro barely had it as a depression lol

[Blown Away]

12z GEFS… I’ve noticed the GEFS are expanding E, maybe away from CAG, and appears to develop TW in the E Caribbean below @Hispaniola and move NW over Cuba, FL Straits and into EGOM. Euro showing TW doing something like that.

[TheDreamTraveler]

18z GFS has a tropical storm/min hurricane getting awfully close to California lol

[Spacecoast]

18z GFS has a tropical storm/min hurricane getting awfully close to California lol

GFS has a Major Hurricane (964mb) into Iceland...
How unusual is that???